Mavericks Have the Offensive Firepower to Keep Game 1 Against Celtics Close

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: French Open semis
- NBA: Luka triple-double possible
- Column: Inside a WNBA game
- MLB: Tanner Houck on a roll for Red Sox
- News: Hurley is now Lakers’ target

We’ll get to the NBA Finals shortly, but today we’re starting with a French Open update. World No. 1 Iga Swiatek defeated American Coco Gauff in the first semifinal this morning, 6-2, 6-4. The remaining spot in Saturday’s final will be decided by an unexpected matchup between the 12th-seeded Italian Jasmine Paolini and 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva. The teenager is favored in the match (-120 at FanDuel).

On the men’s side, Carlos Alcaraz (-170) is favored over Jannik Sinner (+140) in the first semifinal, which will take place tomorrow. They’re 4-4 head-to-head in their careers, with Sinner winning two of their past three matches. No matter what happens, Sinner will be ranked No. 1 for the first time on Monday. The second semifinal featuring Casper Rudd (+104) against Alexander Zverev (-126) moved decidedly in Zverev’s direction overnight, at least in the mind of bettors. Ruud won in straight sets when the two faced of in last year’s French Open semifinal, but Zverev is in much better form than he was then.

In today’s newsletter, Jason is looking for the Mavericks to matchup well against the Celtics in Game 1 of the NBA Finals and expects a high-scoring game. In her weekly column, Abby Labar takes us with her for the first WNBA game she ever attended, which happened to include Caitlin Clark. And in MLB, Jack is tracking Jose Ramirez’s hits + runs + RBIs success and sees an opportunity with the Orioles’ moneyline.

Mavericks +6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
While there is some excitement around Kristaps Porzingis's return, the Mavericks still match up very well on paper. Forget the multiple losses in the regular season against Boston, the Mavericks are peaking right now. Anything Boston does well, Dallas does just as well on the other end. We could change our judgments as the series progresses. But for now, with a spread of 6.5 points, we’ll look at the Mavericks.

Mavericks vs. Celtics over 214.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Ultimately, both offenses are superior. The Celtics are coming into the NBA Finals second in points per 100 possessions and second in effective field goal percentage. On the other hand, the Mavericks might be 6th in points per 100 possessions, but they’ve shot an effective field goal percentage of 55.1%, which is third-best in the NBA. As long as Dallas limits turnovers and stays aggressive on the offensive glass, both teams should fare well offensively in Game 1. 

Luka Doncic triple-double (+360 at FanDuel)
If the Dallas Mavericks escape with a win (or even a cover), Luka Doncic would likely be the reason why. Doncic added a triple-double in two of five games against the Timberwolves during the Western Conference finals, averaging 32.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 8.2 assists per game. Dating back to May 13th, Doncic has added a triple-double in five of his last eight games. At +360, it’s worth considering. 

PJ Washington over 1.5 threes (-180 at DraftKings)
The Boston Celtics are typically a good defense. But they’ve struggled defending power forwards around the perimeter this season. The Celtics rank 27th in three-pointers allowed to power forwards. Meanwhile, PJ Washington has earned at least two threes in nine of his last 10 games during the postseason. He’s also hit this line in four of his last five and nailed at least two threes in every game against the Celtics since last season.

My First WNBA Game Showed the Promise
and Uniqueness of the League

I grew up playing every sport under the sun. That was my life: school, practice or a game, homework, bed. Every single season. Even in the summer I was on a swim team and riding horses. Soccer was my number one sport. With the popularity of Mia Hamm and David Beckham during that time, they were naturally players I looked up to.

When my playing days were over and I turned to covering sports over playing them, I dove right into men’s sports. Men’s basketball and baseball at NC State, followed by college football and the NHL, and now MLB. Out of the hundreds of sporting events I’ve attended, this past Sunday was actually the first time I had ever attended a WNBA game.

Click here to continue reading Abby’s column on our website

Orioles moneyline (+100 at FanDuel)
The Orioles are an enticing play anytime there’s a plus sign in front of their moneyline price, and this is a solid matchup for them. In 146 combined plate appearances against Blue Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi, current Orioles hitters are batting .280 with a .358 xwOBA and a .500 expected slugging percentage. Cade Povich, who will be making his MLB debut, dominated Triple-A this year with a 5-1 record, a 3.34 ERA and 75 strikeouts in 56.2 innings of work. Baltimore is excited about Povich’s upside, and he should get some help from his offense in this matchup.

Jose Ramirez over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+115 at DraftKings)
Jose Ramirez has cleared this line in eight of his last 12 games, and this sets up for another big day for the Guardians star. In 29 career plate appearances against Royals starter Brady Singer, Ramirez is batting .435 and slugging .783 with two home runs and two doubles. The third baseman is already averaging 2.85 hits + runs + RBIs per game this season, and this is a great matchup for him at the plate.

Pablo Lopez under 5.5 Ks (+116 at FanDuel)
It’s not easy to fade Pablo Lopez and his 27.1% strikeout rate, but this looks like the matchup to do it. In 109 combined plate appearances against the Twins’ starter, current Yankees hitters are batting .326 with a .414 xwOBA, a .593 expected slugging percentage and a minuscule 13.8% K rate. New York also has the second-lowest chase rate and the third-highest chase contact rate in MLB this season. Lopez managed only three strikeouts in his start against the Yankees last month, so we like the plus-money price on under 5.5.

Dodgers team total over 2.5 first five innings (-135 at DraftKings)
This is a brutal setup for Pirates starter Bailey Falter. The left-hander is giving up a 31.4% fly-ball rate and a 9.3% barrel rate this season, and now he has to face a loaded Dodgers lineup with the wind blowing strongly out to left-center field at PNC Park. The Dodgers have the fourth-highest batting average (.290) and the fifth-highest OPS (.872) against lefties over the last two weeks, so they should be able to jump on Falter early. 

Tanner Houck under 5.5 hits allowed (-120 at DraftKings)
Tanner Houck is having the best season of his young career. The Red Sox starter has a 1.85 ERA and a .206 opponent batting average through 12 starts, and he leads the league in ERA+ (224) and FIP (2.15). Houck has gone under this line in three of his last four starts, and now he gets to face a dreadful White Sox lineup that’s batting just .199 with a .587 OPS against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks. 

Adley Rutschman and Masyn Winn to record a hit parlay (-114 at FanDuel)
We’ve seen success with our hit parlays early on, so let’s look at another one for Thursday’s slate. Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman has been crushing left-handed pitching all year, batting .442 with a 1.164 OPS in 77 at-bats. He’s also 8-20 (.400) against Kikuchi in his career. As for the Cardinals’ Masyn Winn, he’s recorded at least one base hit in 19 of his last 21 games, and Rockies starter Cal Quantrill gave up nine knocks in his last start against the Dodgers. 

Will Smith to hit a home run (+425 at DraftKings)
We already mentioned how Falter could be in for a rough night on Thursday. Well, he might be in the most trouble against Will Smith. The Dodgers catcher is crushing left-handed pitching this year with a .426 batting average, a 1.304 OPS and four home runs in 54 at-bats. He also ranks 12th among qualified hitters in fly-ball rate and 34th in barrel rate, so he’s especially equipped to take advantage of the friendly matchup and weather conditions at PNC Park. 

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