How Haliburton's Shot Jolted the Betting Market + Today's Bets to Watch

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: OKC’s title odds were cut in half after shocking loss

• Bets to Watch: Schwellenbach has gone over 18.5 outs recorded in 4 straight starts

• Game of the Day: Panthers vs. Oilers face off for Game 2

• Public Betting: Bets are with Panthers, money is with Oilers

• Overtime: Rodgers to Pittsburgh

Well that was unexpected. The Pacers’ stunning comeback in Oklahoma City gave Indiana a 1-0 lead — and altered the odds across the board.

OKC is now -330 at FanDuel to win the title, down from -700 before Game 1, while the Pacers’ odds are +265. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP odds have moved from -550 pre-series to -310, while Game 1 hero Tyrese Haliburton is presently +370.

For series exact score, the shortest odds are for OKC to prevail in a seven-game marathon (+265), just ahead of OKC in six (+285) and in five (+290). The likeliest Pacers triumph is in six (+710).

Here’s how Indiana stole Game 1 and what it means for the series.

—Patrick Dorsey

Lugo Allowed Just 3 Earned Runs in 29.1 Innings vs. White Sox Across Past 4 Matchups

By Craig Williams

Mets over 6.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela has been poor all season, but his production was especially troublesome across 28.2 May innings, in which he allowed 29 earned runs. The Mets tagged him for seven earned runs over four frames on May 31, and we’re looking for them to inflict damage once again. Senzatela has performed better at Coors in a number of categories, but ERA is not one of them. He will enter tonight’s start with a 7.42 ERA at home.

Mets -0.5 first 5 innings (-210 at DraftKings)
We’re not ignoring the possibility that Kodai Senga could struggle in his first start at Coors Field, but will he struggle to the same degree that the numbers suggest Antonio Senzatela will? Senga allowed two earned runs across 6.1 innings in his previous start, which came against these Rockies at Citi Field on May 31. Even if we assume he gives up a little bit more, we’re still buying the Mets offense — No. 10 in wOBA since May 1 — to put up enough runs to maintain a comfortable lead after five frames.

Mets vs. Rockies over 10.5 runs (-110 at BetMGM)
The numbers suggest the Mets are en route to hanging a crooked number on the Rockies. Not only did Antonio Senzatela allow more earned runs than innings pitched in May, but the Rockies’ pitching staff enters the contest with a 6.04 ERA at Coors. We don’t necessarily expect Kodai Senga to be knocked around today, but he is making his first start at Coors Field, something that could affect him physically and/or mentally. And as poor as the Rockies are offensively overall, they’re merely bad at home — ninth fewest runs per game — versus utterly abysmal on the road.

Juan Soto 3+ hits + runs + RBI (-125 at DraftKings)
Soto averaged a run, hit, and RBI apiece with a .316/.500/.895 slash line in six games prior to last night’s two-walk effort. It’s a small sample, but it’s a sign that Soto is rounding into his vintage form. He has two homers in four at-bats against Antonio Senzatela and a 1.002 OPS across 101 career plate appearances at Coors Field. Soto’s track record suggests that once he gets hot, he’s going to wreak havoc on opposing pitchers, and his recent production suggests the hot streak is here.

Yankees over 2.5 runs first 5 innings (-120 at DraftKings)
Red Sox starter Walker Buehler is still rounding into form since returning to the rotation on May 20. He has a 1.54 WHIP and 4.85 ERA (5.92 FIP) across his past 13 innings, a significant trend, but we’re paying particular attention to Buehler’s and the Yankees’ pitch value splits. Buehler’s most effective offerings according to Statcast are his sinker and slider, which he throws 36.5% of the time. The Yankees rank fourth and 10th in run value generated against sinkers and sliders, respectively; but it’s their work against fastballs and cutters, pitches Buehler throws 42.2% of the time, that suggests they’re in store for a quality offensive showing. They rank third and first, respectively, in runs created against those pitches this season.

Yankees moneyline (-170 at bet365)
The Red Sox are simply in poor form at the moment, entering tonight’s series opener with a 13-19 record since May 1 and a 13-18 road record overall. Unless manager Alex Cora’s recent post-game remarks spark a fire under Red Sox players, they’re likely to continue struggling, especially against a Yankees team that is 20-10 at home and since May 1.

Seth Lugo over 17.5 outs recorded (-185 at DraftKings)
Lugo hit a road bump his last time out, surrendering four earned runs in 3.1 innings against the Tigers. However, he was sharp across his five starts prior, posting a 2.43 ERA over 33.1 innings, including holding down the White Sox to one earned run over 6.2 frames on May 6. The White Sox have the fourth-worst wOBA since May 1, and Lugo has fared well against them in particular. Current White Sox hitters own a .488 OPS against Lugo, and he’s allowed three earned runs in four starts (29.1 innings) against them since 2024.

Baltimore moneyline (-145 at ESPNBET)
It’s easy to overanalyze things when it comes to betting. This is a case where we’re going to try to keep things simple. The Orioles are one of the most disappointing teams in the league this season, but they’ve been playing better baseball of late, winning eight of 10 and six straight. The Athletics, meanwhile, are mired in a bit of a rut. They’re 1-9 over their past 10; and Sutter Health Park, the Athletics’ temporary ballpark, has not provided much of a field advantage — the A’s are 10-22 at home. 

Spencer Schwellenbach over 18.5 outs recorded (+100 at DraftKings)
The Braves were beaten up a bit in their series finale against the Diamondbacks, and this is a spot in which they could use a lengthy start from Schwellenbach, who is quietly pitching like a top-of-the-rotation starter. Although he enters tonight’s contest with more favorable home splits, we love the pitcher-friendly environment of Oracle Park, and Schwellenbach has gone over 18.5 outs recorded in four straight starts entering tonight.

Oilers (-1.5) Aim to Take 2-0 Lead After Winning Game 1 Thriller

The Oilers needed a comeback and an overtime goal from Leon Draisaitl to take their first Stanley Cup Finals series lead since 1990. Edmonton is again favored in Game 2, but defending-champ Florida is certainly no pushover.

A3 Panthers vs. P3 Oilers
8pm ET on TNT/Max/truTV
(Oilers lead 1-0)

• Spread: Edmonton (-1.5, +194), Florida (+1.5, -245)

• Moneyline: Edmonton -125, Florida +104

• Total (6.5): Over +106, Under -130

*Stats in Playoffs

Series Rundown

• Game 1: Oilers won 4-3 (OT) in Edmonton

  • First Star: Leon Draisaitl (EDM) - 2 G, 0 A

  • Second Star: Sam Bennett (FLA) - 2 G, 0 A

  • Third Star: Kasperi Kapanen (EDM) - 0 G, 2 A

Bettors Are Overwhelmingly Backing the Mets (-1.5) Over the Lowly Rockies

NHL

• Panthers (+1.5, -215) at Oilers (-1.5, +205): 71% of bets are with Florida, but 64% of the money is with Edmonton

MLB

• Marlins at Rays (-1.5, +122): 78% of the money and 59% of bets are with Tampa Bay

• Phillies (-1.5, +112) at Pirates: 76% of the money and 66% of the bets are with Philadelphia

• Rangers at Nationals (+1.5, -144): 67% of the money and 68% of bets are with Washington

• Cubs (+1.5, -137) at Tigers (-1.5, +114): 65% of the money is with Detroit, but 52% of the bets are with Chicago

• Astros at Guardians (+1.5, -196): 61% of the money and 63% of bets are with Cleveland

• Diamondbacks at Reds (+1.5, -164): 77% of the money and 68% of bets are with Cincinnati

• Royals (-1.5, -102) at White Sox: 81% of the money and 67% of bets are with Kansas City

• Padres (+1.5, -166) at Brewers: 67% of the money and 69% of bets are with San Diego

• Blue Jays (+1.5, -170) at Twins: 64% of the money and 70% of the bets are with Toronto

• Dodgers (-1.5, +140) at Cardinals: 62% of the money and 53% of bets are with Los Angeles

• Mets (-1.5, -210) at Rockies: 97% of the money and 91% of bets are with New York

• Mariners at Angels (+1.5, -126): 65% of the money and 77% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Orioles at Athletics (+1.5, -152): 52% of the money and 70% of bets are with the Athletics

• Braves at Giants (+1.5, -156): 71% of the money and 75% of bets are with San Francisco

In the News 

• Aaron Rodgers is a Steeler — but there is cause for concern.

• Here’s how Caitlin Clark reacted to Tyrese Haliburton’s shot.

• Atlanta just allowed the biggest ninth-inning blown lead in 3 years.

• Shams Charania says the Knicks tried to trade for Kevin Durant at the deadline.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7:10pm: Diamondbacks vs. Reds on Apple TV+

• 7:10pm: Cubs vs. Tigers on Apple TV+

• 8pm: Panthers vs. Oilers on TNT/truTV/Max (Game 2)

• 8pm: No. 12 Texas Tech vs. No. 6 Texas in the Women’s College World Series on ESPN/ESPN+ (Game 3)

Photo of the Day