Celtics Defense was Great in Game 1, but Dallas Hasn't Lost Twice in a Row in 2024 Playoffs

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: NFL minicamps begin
- NBA: Mavericks always respond
- MLB: Dodgers could sweep Yankees
- News: Panthers win Game 1

Ten NFL teams opened their mandatory three-day minicamps this past week, with the other 22 squads starting tomorrow or Tuesday. The first preseason game is on August 1st, and Baltimore travels to Kansas City to kick off the regular season on September 5th. There’s no better time than the present to start looking at some NFL season total props, via FanDuel:

• Patrick Mahomes is the sportsbook’s favorite to finish with the most regular season passing yards (+750). He’s followed by C.J. Stroud (+850), Dak Prescott (+1000), and Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa (+1300).

• Marvin Harrison Jr. is the betting favorite to be the top rookie in terms of receiving yards (+150), with Malik Nabers following at +480, Ladd McConkey at +700 and Keon Coleman at +850.

• Kirk Cousins to throw 30+ TDs in the regular season is at +150.

• Derrick Henry to score 10+ regular season rushing TDs is at -135.

• Tyreek Hill is at -112 to have over 1,375 receiving yards.

• Detroit is at +800 to be the last remaining undefeated team, followed by Kansas City (+900), San Francisco (+950), Cincinnati (+1200) and Miami (+1300).

In today’s newsletter, Chris breaks down Game 2 of the NBA Finals. He’s looking for Kyrie Irving and the Mavericks offense to rebound in Game 2 and for the Dallas defense to be able to contain Jayson Tatum (but not necessarily enough for a Mavs win). In baseball, Craig is tracking Yordan Alvarez’s hot start to June and is expecting a low-scoring effort in the Dodgers/Yankees finale in the Bronx.

Kyrie Irving over 23.5 points (+102 at FanDuel)
The last time Kyrie Irving had a low-scoring game in the playoffs, 16 points against the T-Wolves in Game 4 of the Western Conference finals, he stormed back and scored 36 the following game. Kyrie was an uncharacteristic 6-19 from the field in Game 1 of the Finals, his second-lowest efficiency in a postseason outing this year, and Boston deserves credit for their first-class defense. But Kyrie and a resurgent Mavs' squad must answer in Game 2 if they want the series to remain competitive, and an old wily veteran like Kyrie should lead the charge with Luka Doncic. His total is way too low considering the circumstances.

Dallas Mavericks team total over 104.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
The Dallas Mavericks looked tired and out-of-sync in Game 1, vulnerable to the Celtics' high-energy defense and home crowd difference, and it showed offensively. They shot just 41.7% from the field and only managed to hit 7 of their 27 three-point attempts. Luka and Kyrie combined for just 18-45 (40%) from the field, a mark that all but guaranteed the Mavs wouldn't have a chance to pull out a victory. But Luka, Kyrie and the Mavs have never failed to answer in the 2024 playoffs, having not yet lost twice in a row. Whether they lose or not again, we're willing to look at positive regression for their scoreboard.

Jayson Tatum under 25.5 points (+100 at DraftKings)
One aspect of Game 1 that most critics and fans might have missed was the non-effect of Jayson Tatum. His scoring has been down throughout the playoffs, at his best against the porous defense of the Pacers (30 ppg in the Eastern Conference finals), but easily stunted against better defenses like Miami and Cleveland. Dallas' tenacity in the front court and Jason Kidd's aggressive defensive scheme put more pressure on Tatum every time he touched the ball in Game 1. Sunday, in a desperate situation in Game 2, we expect A+ defense from an underdog that needs to limit Boston's best player.

Mavericks +7 (-110 at DraftKings)
Markets barely responded after the Celtics win in Game 1. Opening at +7.5 at most books, Dallas has settled into a +7 road underdog in Sunday's big showdown, but that should tell bettors something very significant. If the Celtics were truly that much better than the Mavs, wouldn't they be greater favorites at home after their impressive display in Game 1? Oddsmakers don't want to risk too many points against a Dallas squad that responded well after each loss during the playoffs. Expect Game 2 to be much closer or a Dallas win.

Brewers +1.5 (-148 at DraftKings)
The Brewers are vastly superior to the Tigers on paper, but they enter a challenging spot on Sunday. Standout lefty Tarik Skubal takes the hill in a “stopper” role for Detroit. The Tigers have lost three in a row and are trying to avoid a sweep. They may very well do so, but even with their ace on the hill, it’s difficult to envision the Tigers hitting enough to completely bury the hot-hitting Brew Crew. 

Guardians over 4.5 runs (+108 at FanDuel)
We’re going to pick on the Marlins, who are 12-24 at home with a -69 run differential. They took the first game of the series, but the Guardians win (20-14) and score (5.18 runs per game) at good rates on the road. They also hit well situationally, evidenced by an .826 OPS with men on base. That number climbs to .877 with men in scoring position. And Marlins lefty Trevor Rogers (1.75 WHIP) will allow baserunners. 

Red Sox over 4.5 runs (-146 at FanDuel)
Dropping three of four against the White Sox — even in Chicago — would be a tough pill to swallow. It’s not unreasonable to anticipate a little more bite from the Red Sox before they head home for sets against the Phillies and Yankees, especially as they remain in the wild card mix. The Red Sox have the third-best slugging percentage against right-handers, and current hitters have punished White Sox righty Chris Flexen.

Astros -0.5 first 5 innings (-113 at FanDuel)
We’ll stop short of banking on the Astros to complete a sweep. But considering the Angels’ struggles — especially at home — and Patrick Sandoval’s poor history against the ‘Stros (8.13 career ERA), it’s reasonable to anticipate Houston getting off to a good start. Current Astros hitters have a .920 OPS against Sandoval. Meanwhile, Justin Verlander takes the hill for the guests. He’s steady enough to keep the Angels in check even if he’s a mere mortal at this point.

Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 combined hits + runs + RBI (-125 at DraftKings)
Alvarez is on an absolute tear at the moment, batting .481/.548/1.074 in June, and he has reached the over in five of his last seven. Don’t fret the lefty-lefty matchup. Alvarez is batting .322 versus left-handed pitching this season and .303 for his career with a .939 OPS. He also hits Patrick Sandoval well in particular, connecting on two homers and a double in 17 at-bats.

Reds over 3.5 runs (-150 at Caesars)
The Reds have been among the streakiest teams in baseball this season, and they’re in the midst of winning seven straight. They’ll step in against Cubs’ rookie sensation Shota Imanaga, who is coming off of his two worst starts. Imanaga generated negative value with both his fastball and splitter in his last two outings. Meanwhile, the Reds have feasted on the heater over their current streak, contributing to their seven runs per game and .384 wOBA.

Yankees vs. Dodgers under 7.5 (+102 at FanDuel)
This Yankees team won’t be swept too often, especially at home, but they’re on the verge of dropping three straight against the Dodgers. Los Angeles starter Tyler Glasnow has phenomenal numbers against current Yankees hitters, including Aaron Judge (.349 OPS). Meanwhile, tonight may be Luis Gil’s most high-profile start of his young career. He’s in pristine form, producing a 0.60 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, and .102 opponent’s batting average over his last seven starts for the Yankees (44.2 IP).

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