Our Top 10 Bets to Watch + 15 Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups and Futures

In today’s newsletter…

• Top 10 Bets: Our first NFL parlay of the season + NBA, WNBA and Tennis

• Matchups: Red Sox starter Bello struggles vs. Rays

• Player Profile: Panthers’ Marchand has 3 goals in first 2 Stanley Cup Final games

• Overtime: Paul Skenes star-crossed season continues

Thunder Rolled in Game 2, Haliburton Will Need to Step Up Scoring to Give Pacers a Shot

By Chris Farley

Thunder 4-1 (+200 at DraftKings)
We warned our audience that the Pacers know how to start a series strong, having won the first two games of every 2025 playoff series they've competed in so far. Game 1 at Oklahoma City was no exception, which led to yet another comeback victory for an Indiana roster that never quits. At the same time, let's not mince words: The Thunder have been and continue to rate as the NBA's best program this season, which is why they opened as such dominant favorites. Oklahoma City knows how to respond and when they learn more about their opponent, their defense only gets better (only 106.5 points per game allowed to playoff opponents). This is still a very possible outcome.

Tyrese Haliburton to average 20 points per game in the NBA Finals (+450 at DraftKings)
Haliburton opened up the NBA Finals with a mostly forgettable Game 1 before hitting the game-winner, putting up just 14 points in 39 minutes and only hoisting up 13 shots. Then he only found 17 last night. But as the series trudges on, we can expect Haliburton to be more featured. The OKC defense is the unparalleled No. 1 unit in the NBA, which means they'll test the Pacers' offense and force their scorers into uncomfortable positions throughout this series. That also means that Haliburton, who's become one of the most clutch players in NBA Playoff history, will be counted on more often. The 25-year-old star averaged 21 points per game, which included some stinkers, in the East Finals in a similarly contentious series. We expect a repeat.

MLB

Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (+125 consensus)
Wade Miley, who's 38, only pitched in seven innings in 2024 after a left elbow injury required surgery and abruptly brought his season to an end. Last Wednesday the Reds signed Miley to a one-year deal, a decision that already seems a bit foolish. In his first appearance, Miley was smacked for six hits and four runs against an advantageous Milwaukee offense. The Reds clubhouse already suffers from poor pitching (15th in home runs allowed, 25th in strikes per nine innings) and we doubt they'll see much of an upgrade on Monday. Cleveland will start Luis Ortiz (4.02 ERA), who just had a great outing versus the Yankees and has shown solid command over his last five starts (only seven runs permitted).

Cardinals vs. Blue Jays first five over 4.5 runs (-113 at FanDuel)
Frankly, we're surprised this total isn't much higher. Neither Jose Berrios (3.67 ERA, 1.28 WHIP over 76 innings) or Andre Pallante (4.91 ERA, 1.38 WHIP over 66 innings) have been in their best form lately, and both will be facing off against top offenses. St. Louis and Toronto are both top-7 in batting average, on base percentage, and strikeouts per nine innings. Expanding on why we love this wager, Berrios has allowed 22 hits and 11 runs in his last five starts, while Pallante is even worse in the same duration (29 hits, 18 runs, yikes!). Even better, both offenses are coming off lowly performances from the plate (three runs each), so this is a fantastic spot for regression.  

WNBA

L.A. Sparks -6 (-110 at DraftKings)
The Golden State Valkyries are off one of the biggest wins of their young franchise, knocking off the Aces in a shocking 27-point win against the 2023 WNBA Champions. They were as high as 12.5-point underdogs before tipoff. Golden State did everything right in their victory, but we can expect regression. Although they shot 47.9% against Las Vegas, their season average is just 38.9%, easily the lowest in the W. The Sparks shoot 44% and rank as a top-5 overall offense, and they're also coming off three full days of rest and a nice win against Dallas. Los Angeles isn't a premiere team by any stretch but they're at home and should be plenty motivated since they lost their last clash against the newly formed Valkyries (82-73) just two weeks ago.

Sparks vs. Valkyries over 161 points (-110 at FanDuel)
The Valkyries' defense has been the story of their program so far, ranking in the top-6 to start the season despite the fact that they're a brand new roster. But they could shift their playing style after a big win against Las Vegas. Playing at one of the W's quickest tempos (4th overall), the Valkyries don't need to be as efficient as other teams to induce a big total. That's especially true if they're facing an above-average offense. Against the top-5 offenses in the WNBA, Valkyries' games average 157.6 points per game, but those were all prior to their coming-out party on Saturday. The Sparks average 83 points per game and we expect more confidence from the visiting Valkyries; this is a tad too low.

Tennis

Anna Blinkova to win (+149 at BetOnline)
We're not sure why Katerina Siniakova is the favorite in this late-morning matchup in Hertogenbosch, but we'll pick it apart to tell you why she shouldn't be. The Czech is more decorated than her foe, having won 10 Grand Slams as a doubles competitor and is still one half of the No. 1 ranked doubles team in the world. Her singles accolades are far less impressive, though, as she's fallen from 27th to 70th in the WTA over the past year. In 2025 she has very little to show for in singles brackets, just 1-4 since May. Blinkova had a quick out in Paris but scored some good wins leading into the summer, and we love her fast-paced, attacking style to overwhelm Siniakova, who's not as adept without a partner.

Karolina Muchova 2-0 (-110 at DraftKings)
At Roland Garros, Muchova immediately lost as a big favorite (-1600 at Bovada) to Alycia Parks. It was a shocking result for a player who reached the finals there just two years ago, but it doesn't mean she can't bounce back. The 28-year-old is still in her prime and recently had some impressive results, getting to the semifinals in Dubai and mowing over formidable foes like Emma Raducanu, Sorana Cirstea, and Victoria Azarenka this spring. She also gave Elina Svitolina, who's been at the top of her game all season, all she could handle in a three-set clash. Maddison Inglis has struggled in 2025, rarely beating a recognizable name, and she owns just a 47% win percentage in service games this year. This should be a dominant win for Muchova.

Future: Ons Jabeur to win Wimbledon (+2500 at DraftKings)
Jabeur hasn't had much to celebrate in recent seasons. The former world No. 2 in 2023 has fallen to 36th, but one cannot ignore her prowess on grass. She made the finals two consecutive years at Wimbledon (2022, 2023) and has a ridiculous win-rate on grass (74.51%), easily one of the best marks in women's tennis. Her dynamic backhands and savvy maneuvers thrive on the bouncy surface, where ingenuity is often more important than power or service form. We'd be hard-pressed to find any recent records or accomplishments to point to; 2024 and 2025 haven't been great to the Tunisian, but 30 years old and with a ton of big-game experience at Wimbledon, her potential cannot be ignored for this price.

Early NFL Week 1 Parlay

Cardinals + Broncos moneyline (-115 at FanDuel)
For many it's far too early to even consider making any bets on an NFL game at this point, but this one breaks the mold. The Saints were as blindsided as anyone by Derek Carr's decision to retire, a move that makes the Saints' QB-depth chart the most shallow in the NFL. Draft pick Tyler Shough, who needed to remain in college to outshine defenses as a 25-year-old, tops the list of their Week 1 choices, while the Cardinals will bring an electric Kyler Murray and revamped defense into town. In our other leg, the Broncos, who made the playoffs and are on the short-list of teams on the rise, are at home against  #1 draft pick, QB Cam Ward. Historically that just doesn't go well for the newbie. The price will only rise.

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Current Rays Have .407 OBP vs. Red Sox Starter Bello

• Carlos Santana (Guardians) vs. Wade Miley (Reds): 7-15, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 4 BB

• Adam Frazier (Pirates) vs. Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): 7-15, 1 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

• Josh Lowe (Rays) vs. Brayan Bello (Red Sox): 7-17, 2 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB, 4 K

• Jose Caballero (Rays) vs. Brayan Bello (Red Sox): 4-7, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

• Yandy Diaz (Rays) vs. Brayan Bello (Red Sox): 5-12, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

• Jonathan Aranda (Rays) vs. Brayan Bello (Red Sox): 5-12, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K

• Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates) vs. Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): 5-12, 5 K

• Alex Verdugo (Braves) vs. Aaron Civale (Brewers): 3-5, 2 RBI

• Jackson Chourio (Brewers) vs. Chris Sale (Braves): 3-6, 1 2B, 1 K

• Mike Trout (Angels) vs. Jeffrey Springs (Athletics): 4-9, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 4 K

• Freddie Freeman (Dodgers) vs. Nick Pivetta (Padres): 12-36, 3 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB, 4 K

• Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) vs. Nick Pivetta (Padres): 4-12, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 6 K

• Brendan Donovan (Cardinals) vs. Jose Berrios (Blue Jays): 3-9, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 3 K

• Danny Jansen (Rays) vs. Brayan Bello (Red Sox): 3-10, 2 2B, 3 RBI, 3 K

• Jake Cronenworth (Padres) vs. Dustin May (Dodgers): 5-17, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

Panthers Marchand Notched at Least 1 Point in 4 of 5 Games

Name: Brad Marchand
Team: Florida Panthers
Position: Center
Postseason Stats: 7 goals, 10 assists, +14, 33 shots in 19 games
Today’s Matchup: Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final at Florida

Past 5 Games

• Game 2 @ Edmonton: 2 goals, +3, 7 shots, 22:00 TOI

• Game 1 @ Edmonton: 1 goal, ±0, 3 shots, 20:29 TOI

• Game 5 @ Carolina: 1 assist, +1, 4 shots, 15:39 TOI

• Game 4 vs. Carolina: -2, 1 shot, 17:27 TOI

• Game 3 vs. Carolina: 1 goal, +1, 2 shots, 16:44 TOI

Bets to Watch

• 60 minutes shots on goal (1.5): Over -188, Under +142

• Total points (0.5): Over -104, Under -122

• Any time goal scorer: +290

In the News 

• Paul Skenes didn’t give up an earned run in 7.2 innings, but yet again didn’t get a win for the Pirates.

• The Mavericks are putting their future No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg through a workout later this month.

• Non-revenue sports could take even more of a back seat in college athletics after a multi-billion dollar settlement will allow schools to pay players.

• Portugal beat Spain 5-3 in penalties to win the Nations League title after Cristiano Ronaldo scored an equalizer in the 2nd half.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 6:40pm: Marlins vs. Pirates on FS1

• 7pm: NCAA Baseball Super Regionals on ESPN

• 8pm: Oilers vs. Panthers in Game 3 (tied 1-1) on TNT

• 9:40pm: Mariners vs. Diamondbacks on FS1

Photo of the Day