Previewing U.S. Open Bets + NBA Finals and MLB Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: The struggling USMNT is still co-favorite at the Gold Cup 

• Top 10 Bets: Insights for the U.S. Open + 1 NBA Finals bet to watch

• Game of the Day: Indy is seeing its first NBA Finals action since 2000

• Matchups: Aaron Judge has a 1.825 OPS vs. tonight’s Royals starter

• Overtime: Deion Sanders is experiencing a health issue

The U.S. Men’s National Team’s poor run of form continued Tuesday with an embarrassing 4-0 loss to Switzerland in Nashville, a fourth consecutive defeat for the red, white and blue.

Still, Mauricio Pochettino’s side is getting respect from oddsmakers heading into the Concacaf Gold Cup, as the U.S. is -1000 at DraftKings to triumph in its opener vs. Trinidad and Tobago, -280 to top its group, and joint favorites (at +190) with Mexico to win the whole thing.

The U.S. Gold Cup squad won’t be at full strength, which has stirred up some controversy. Landon Donovan seemed to call out Christian Pulisic for skipping the tournament and many, including Pulisic’s father, rushed to the AC Milan winger’s defense.

—Patrick Dorsey

Schauffele Hasn’t Finished Worse than T14 in 8 Career U.S. Open Appearances

By Jack Dougherty

Aaron Wiggins under 6.5 points (-130 at DraftKings)
This is a prime sell-high spot after Wiggins’ career performance in Game 2. Before scoring 18 points on 5-of-8 shooting from three last game, Wiggins scored 10 total points in 11.2 minutes per game over the previous five games. Any role player can catch fire in a home playoff game, but it’s another thing to do it on the road a few days later. The Pacers have been excellent with defensive adjustments all postseason, so they won’t let Wiggins beat them again.

MLB

Bailey Falter under 3.5 strikeouts (-102 at FanDuel)
Falter has pitched well since the start of May, but strikeouts haven’t been the reason why. The left-hander has gone under this line in five of his last six starts, and he’s recorded only four punch-outs in his last 15.2 innings of work. He now ranks in the fifth percentile in whiff rate (17.3%) and the seventh percentile in K rate (15.6%) this season. As for the matchup, the Marlins have the sixth-lowest strikeout rate against lefties over the last three weeks (20.8%), and Falter has a career 12.2 percent K rate against this lineup. 

Phillies vs. Cubs over 8.5 runs (-120 at DraftKings)
Through 10 starts this season, Jesus Luzardo had a 5-0 record, a 1.95 ERA and a Cy Young buzz echoing throughout the 2-1-5. That seems like forever ago now, as the Phillies left-hander has given up 30 hits, six walks and a whopping 23 earned runs in his last 12.2 innings of work. The Phillies have allowed 26 runs in Luzardo’s last two outings. Yikes. As for Ben Brown, he ranks in the eighth percentile in average exit velocity and the 10th percentile in xwOBAcon this year. We’ll gladly fade these starting pitchers with the wind blowing out to right field at Citizens Bank Park.

Robbie Ray over 7.5 strikeouts (+110 at DraftKings)
Ray has been great at generating swings and misses this season. The Giants lefty ranks in the 83rd percentile in strikeout rate (28.4%) and the 79th percentile in whiff rate (29.7%), and he’s coming off back-to-back nine-strikeout games in tough matchups against the Marlins and Padres. This is a much easier draw against the Rockies, who have the highest whiff rate, the highest chase rate and the lowest chase contact rate in MLB this year. Colorado is also striking out 30.8% of the time against southpaws this month.

Golf: U.S. Open

Tournament matchup: Xander Schauffele > Ludvig Aberg (-140 at FanDuel)
You always want to target players with high floors in matchup bets, especially at the U.S. Open. Tough golf courses like Oakmont Country Club can send volatile players into a tailspin, and that makes the steady performers even more valuable. You can’t get steadier than Schauffele at the U.S. Open, as the two-time major champ has never finished worse than T14 in eight career appearances. Aberg, on the other hand, has been a boom-or-bust player of late with three top-20 finishes and five finishes outside the top 50 in his last eight starts. We like Schauffele’s consistency over Aberg’s unpredictability in this matchup.

Tournament matchup: Tony Finau > Brooks Koepka (-120 at FanDuel)
There was a time when betting against Koepka at the U.S. Open was a death sentence, but the five-time major champion isn’t what he once was. Koepka missed the cut at The Masters and the PGA Championship, and he hasn’t finished better than T17 on LIV Golf since March. He’s ranked below-average with his driving accuracy in eight of his last nine starts, which will be a major problem at Oakmont, and his short game has been abysmal in 2025. Finau has finished T31, T19 and T15 in his last three starts, and he’s gained strokes with his ball striking in seven straight.

Bryson DeChambeau top-10 finish (-105 at FanDuel)
DeChambeau is the best driver of the golf ball in the world. It’s a superpower that gives him a massive edge over the rest of the field at the U.S. Open, which is specifically built to test your total driving acumen nowadays. It’s no wonder DeChambeau has won two of these. The big-hitting American is also playing some of the best golf of his career, as he’s recorded seven straight top-10 finishes and has been T6 or better in five of his last six major starts. This is a perfect golf course for his game.

Corey Conners top-30 finish (+100 at DraftKings)
We’re surprised this price starts with a plus sign. Keeping your tee shots in the fairway is going to be paramount this week, and there aren’t many players who do that better than Conners. The Canadian ranks first on the PGA Tour in good drive percentage, second in driving accuracy and seventh in strokes gained from off the tee over his last 24 rounds of golf. His exceptional ball striking has led to 10 top-30 finishes in his last 11 starts. Fairways and greens will be the name of the game at Oakmont, and Conners is one of the best in the business at keeping his ball in the short grass. 

Harris English top-30 finish (+150 at DraftKings)
How about some respect for one of the best U.S. Open performers of the last few years? In his last five starts at the U.S. Open, English has a solo third, a solo fourth and a T8 finish to his name. That’s no coincidence, as the American plays his best golf when the conditions are the toughest. Over his last 24 rounds in “very difficult” scoring conditions with “very fast” greens, English ranks ninth in the field in total strokes gained and second in strokes gained from putting. He’s also finished 30th or better in six of his last eight starts and was T12 or better in both majors this year. 

Nick Dunlap to miss the cut (-340 at DraftKings)
This is a steep price to pay on a prop, but there’s still value in this number. The -340 price implies Dunlap has about a 77% chance of missing the cut. We’re willing to bet that percentage should be much higher. The U.S. Open is the ultimate test of total driving, and Dunlap is (by far) the worst driver of the golf ball on the PGA Tour this season. He ranks dead last on Tour in strokes gained from off the tee and second-to-last in driving accuracy. Dunlap has failed to play the weekend in six of his last seven starts at tournaments that featured a cut. With five-inch rough and deep fairway bunkers waiting for him at Oakmont, Dunlap has little to no chance this week. 

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Indianapolis is Hosting its First NBA Finals Game in 25 Years

It’s been a long wait for the NBA Finals to return to the land of Hoosiers, but tonight they finally do. The Pacers are 6-2 at home this postseason; the Thunder are 4-3 on the road.

No. 1 Thunder vs. No. 4 Pacers
8:30pm ET on ABC
(Tied 1-1)

• Spread: Thunder -5 (-114), Pacers +5 (-106)

  • 77% of the money and 57% of the bets are with Oklahoma City

• Moneyline: Thunder -220, Pacers +184

• Total (228.5): Over -110, Under -110

*Stats in Playoffs

Series Rundown

Game 1: Pacers won 111-110 at Oklahoma City

• Leading scorers: Pascal Siakam (19) | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (38)

• Leading rebounds: Aaron Nesmith (12) | Isaiah Hartenstein (9)

• Leading assists: Tyrese Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard (6) | Jalen Williams (6)

Game 2: Thunder won 123-107 in Oklahoma City

• Leading scorers: Tyrese Haliburton (17) | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (34)

• Leading rebounds: Pascal Siakam (7) | Isaiah Hartenstein (8)

• Leading assists: Tyrese Haliburton (6) | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (8)

Aaron Judge is 5-8 with a 1.825 OPS vs. Royals Starter Kris Bubic

• Aaron Judge (Yankees) vs. Kris Bubic (Royals): 5-8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K

• Ryan O’Hearn (Orioles) vs. Casey Mize (Tigers): 6-11, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

• Jose Ramirez (Guardians) vs. Nick Lodolo (Reds): 4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 K

• Donovan Solano (Mariners) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (Diamondbacks): 4-5, 1 K

• Tyler Fitzgerald (Giants) vs. Kyle Freeland (Rockies): 3-5, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 1 K

• Mike Yastrzemski (Giants) vs. Kyle Freeland (Rockies): 9-21, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 3 K

• Zach Neto (Angels) vs. JP Sears (Athletics): 5-10, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 K

• Kyle Isbel (Royals) vs. Clarke Schmidt (Yankees): 3-6, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 RBI

• Garrett Hampson (Reds) vs. Logan Allen (Guardians): 3-6, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 K

• Paul Goldschmidt (Yankees) vs. Kris Bubic (Royals): 3-7, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K

• Bryan Reynolds (Pirates) vs. Cal Quantrill (Marlins): 4-10, 2 K

• Francisco Lindor (Mets) vs. Jake Irvin (Nationals): 5-13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 3 K

• Rowdy Tellez (Mariners) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (Diamondbacks): 2-3, 2 HR, 5 RBI

• Logan O’Hoppe (Angels) vs. JP Sears (Athletics): 3-9, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

• Jonathan Aranda (Rays) vs. Walker Buehler (Red Sox): 2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI

In the News 

• Deion Sanders is reportedly dealing with an “unspecified health issue.”

• The chances Shohei Ohtani pitches soon? Well, it’s not zero…

• Kirk Cousins has broken his silence on Michael Penix Jr. and his future with the Falcons.

• The U.S. Open is about to be played on “the toughest golf course in the world right now.”

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7:40pm: Yankees vs. Royals on Prime Video

• 8pm: Louisville City FC vs. Rhode Island FC on ESPN2

• 8:30pm: Thunder vs. Pacers on ABC (Game 3)

Photo of the Day