In a Do-or-Die Game for the Mavericks, a Faster Pace Should Lead to More Offense

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Hot dog contest drama
- NBA: Mavs must up tempo
- MLB: Great matchup for Cubs’ Assad
- News: WNBA champs struggling

Sixteen-time Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest champion Joey Chestnut has been barred from competing in this year’s edition on the Fourth of July. Chestnut reportedly signed with Impossible Foods to promote their plant-based hot dogs, which Major League Eating apparently considers a competitor to sponsor Nathan's Famous Hot Dogs. As George Shea, the event organizer, told ESPN, “It would be like Michael Jordan saying to Nike, ‘I'm going to represent Adidas, too.”

Chestnut took to X to defend himself, posting, “To set the record straight, I do not have a contract with MLE or Nathans and they are looking to change the rules from past years as it relates to other partners I can work with. This is apparently the basis on which I’m being banned.”

In today’s newsletter, Jason is looking for the Mavericks to survive a must-win game by playing faster on offense. He’s also tracking more rebounds for Al Horford with Kristaps Porzingis possibly out. In MLB, Malcolm is covering the Rays’ strikeouts against right-handed pitchers and inexperienced starters in Baltimore.

Mavericks moneyline (-130 at Hard Rock)
It’s do-or-die for the Dallas Mavericks heading into Game 3. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in the NBA Playoffs, let alone the NBA Finals. A loss tonight would ultimately end the Mavericks. That said, Dallas is a favorite heading into tonight’s game. They’re also gaining some steam with the news that Kristaps Porzingis is questionable due to a rare leg injury. It sounds more likely that he’ll be unavailable despite his efforts to play. That said, the Mavericks should get it done tonight.

Mavericks vs. Celtics over 212.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
The only time the Boston Celtics have been below-average defensively during the playoffs was against the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference finals. The Celtics allowed at least 114.1 points per 100 possessions in all four games of the series and gave up at least a 53.9% effective field goal percentage. If Dallas wants to beat the Celtics, you’d have to imagine the Mavericks adjusting to playing faster. That’ll help the offense get moving, giving them easier and more open looks. With a potential higher-paced Game 3, we’re looking at the over.

Al Horford over 6.5 rebounds (-145 at ESPN Bet)
With Kristaps Porzingis likely out with a lower leg injury, Al Horford's props are becoming more intriguing now. The Mavericks only rank 24th in rebounds allowed to centers this season. With Porzingis, Horford was good for about 28-30 minutes. But without Porzingis, Horford saw north of 40 minutes in a few games during the postseason. Yet, even with 28-30 minutes, Horford hauled in seven rebounds in both games against the Mavericks in the playoffs. He’s got an even better chance at adding seven in tonight’s potentially fast-paced game.

Derrick White over 4.5 assists (+140 at FanDuel)
The Mavericks also rank 25th in assists allowed to shooting guards this season. White has already notched five assists in one of the two NBA Finals games. He also added at least six assists in three of the four games against the Pacers. Those were higher-scoring games with a faster tempo. Tonight’s game should see more points than the series' first two games. That should help White reach at least five assists.

Cristopher Sanchez over 5.5 Ks (-128 at FanDuel)
Phillies pitcher Christopher Sanchez has had a solid start to his season despite a slight dip in his strikeout rate. The lefty faces a prime opportunity to boost his numbers against a Red Sox lineup that struggles against southpaws. Boston’s hitters have a league-worst 27.7% strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 30 days. Sanchez’s chase rate of 33.6% indicates potential for more strikeouts, as he has already shown his strikeout capabilities with impressive performances against the Rockies, Reds, Nationals, and Giants.

Mets moneyline (-148 at FanDuel) 
Mets starter David Peterson is reliable and capable of handling the Marlins’ inconsistent offense. Braxton Garrett for the Marlins has had an up-and-down season, which could lead to scoring opportunities for the Mets, who have been playing solid baseball recently. The Mets’ bats are in better form, potentially leading to a productive outing.

Braves vs. Orioles over 8.5 total runs (-118 at FanDuel) 
This game features two potent offenses. The Braves, despite some issues, are still capable of high-scoring games. They are sending out a pitcher making only his third career start, while the Orioles’ starter is making his second career start and struggled in his debut. With both teams fielding inexperienced pitchers, the stage is set for a high-scoring game. The Orioles lead the majors in runs scored and are strong in batting average and slugging.

Nationals vs. Tigers no runs first inning (-130 at FanDuel) 
The Nationals rank 29th in first-inning runs, averaging just 0.25 per game, and were shut out in the first inning yesterday. Reese Olson, starting for the Tigers, has a 3.43 ERA but has struggled in his last two starts. However, he had a strong stretch before that, making this a potential bounce-back opportunity against a weak Nationals offense. The Tigers are middling offensively, and both teams see upgrades in their pitching matchups with Reese Olson and Jake Irvin, who has allowed only two earned runs in his last three starts.

Jake Irvin under 5.5 hits allowed (-120 at DraftKings)
Detroit has struggled against right-handed pitchers, with only six clearances in their last 25 games against righties. Over the last two weeks, they have a .199 average against RHP, ranking 26th in MLB. Despite their ability to extend counts, it’s unlikely they will force Irvin into a high number of batters faced. Irvin has stayed under this total in 11 of his 13 starts this season.

Athletics vs. Padres under 8 total runs (-115 at DraftKings) 
Oakland’s Hogan Harris has maintained a 2.21 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate, while Michael King for San Diego has a 3.58 ERA with a 25.2% strikeout rate. Both pitchers have shown solid performances despite minor weaknesses. Oakland’s offense has been poor recently, hitting .180 and averaging 1.7 runs per game in their last seven games, while San Diego struggles against left-handed starters. The trend for both teams has been toward low-scoring games.

Javier Assad over 4.5 Ks (-150 at DraftKings)
Javier Assad has exceeded 4.5 strikeouts in eight of his 13 starts for the Cubs, including five of seven on the road. He faces a strikeout-prone Rays lineup, which ranks ninth-highest in strikeout rate against right-handers and third-highest over the last 15 days. With Harold Ramirez out, seven of the nine projected Rays batters have a 25% strikeout rate or higher. The last eight righty starters against Tampa have all recorded at least five strikeouts.

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