Insights on 6 NBA Finals Bets + Today's MLB Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Scottie Scheffler’s underwhelming U.S. Open first round bumped him from the favorite’s spot

• Top 10 Bets: Thunder have the 2nd-best 1st half margin on the road

• Game of the Day: Could the Pacers actually take a 3-1 lead?

• Matchups: Dodgers sluggers have a history vs. tonight’s Giants starter

• Overtime: Antonio Brown is reportedly being sought on an attempted murder charge

Scottie Scheffler was the biggest U.S. Open favorite in years (some books had him at +275), but a 3-over 73 in the opening round bumped him out of the top spot — barely.

Scheffler, who will likely be on the course when you read this, ended Thursday at +650 at FanDuel to win the tournament, behind 2021 U.S. Open champ Jon Rahm, whose 1-under 69 helped him move up to +550 (Rahm also teed off early today).

Tournament leader J.J. Spaun, who posted a bogey-free 4-under 66 and who tees off at 12:52pm ET, was tied for third in the odds at +1200 with two-time champ Brooks Koepka (2-under 68).

Meanwhile, 2018 Masters champ Patrick Reed had quite the day — his 3-over 73 included this double-eagle in which he holed out from 286 yards.

—Patrick Dorsey

Oklahoma City Held Opponents to 103.8 Points Following 5 Playoff Losses

By Craig Williams

Thunder moneyline (-230 at ESPNBET)
The Thunder have not lost back-to-back games since April 4-6; and they only lost two in a row twice this season. As well as the Pacers have played, and as much credit as they deserve, we’re not ready to jump ship on the Thunder, who have performed as the best team in the NBA throughout the regular season and playoffs. The Thunder were 18-2 following a loss in the regular season and are 5-0 during the postseason.

Thunder -3.5 first half (-112 at FanDuel)
The Thunder don’t have to dominate — or even win — the first half in order to win the game, but we’re banking on them playing at a high level from the jump. The Thunder will have adjustments ready, plus the desperation — even if that’s a cliche — of being down 2-1. Throughout the season, the Thunder owned the second-best first-half margin on the road, +4.5, and we’re anticipating a strong start in this contest.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2+ threes made (-136 at FanDuel)
The over on SGA’s points (33.5) is set at -118, so the books are telling us to expect a high-scoring performance from the 2024-25 NBA MVP. While Gilgeous-Alexander may not be a prolific three-point shooter, he has nailed at least two treys in nine playoff games. Wednesday’s game was only the fifth time SGA produced a negative game score this postseason. He averaged 33.5 points in the previous four and hit at least two threes in two of them. We’re anticipating another high-scoring effort with some production from beyond the arc.

Jalen Williams -3.5 points vs. Tyrese Haliburton (-115 at DraftKings)
Williams enters Game 4 with a relatively modest advantage in the postseason scoring department, 20.5 points vs. 18.6 points. The gap is larger during the series, 20.7 vs. 17.7. That gap is still smaller than the head-to-head spread between these two, but we’re considering a couple of factors. One, Williams will be leaned upon to play the Robin to Shai Gilgeou-Alexander’s Batman role. While this Game 4 falls short of a “must win” for the Thunder, we still expect them to treat it as such, and that presumably includes a big performance from Williams.

Pacers under 110.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
The Thunder have held opponents to 103.8 points following their five losses, and they’ve kept them under 109 points in four of those contests. They finished the regular season with the league’s best defensive rating, and they’ve followed that up by producing the best defensive rating throughout the postseason, so suffocating opposing teams defensively is nothing new. Playoff series have an ebb and flow, and we expect the Thunder to make the necessary adjustments — particularly on the defensive side of the floor — en route to a Game 4 victory.

Pacers under 27.5 first quarter points (-108 at DraftKings)
We’re leaning into the defensive angle for the Thunder in Game 4 as they try to even the series. The Thunder have held the Pacers under this number in each of the first three contests, and that included 20 points in Games 1-2 before allowing 24 points in the first quarter of Game 3. Holding down opponents in the opening quarter is no fluke or new trend. They finished third in the NBA in opponents’ first-quarter scoring on the road, and we trust them to execute their defensive assignments, both individually and collectively, in order to get Game 4 off to a winning start.

MLB

Red Sox moneyline first 3 innings (-160 at DraftKings)
The Red Sox open their series with the rest advantage over the Yankees, who traveled from Kansas City following Thursday night’s series finale. Not only did the Red Sox have an off-day leading into Friday’s contest, but they’ve been at home since Monday. The more important factor contributing to this play is lefty Garrett Crochet getting the ball. The Yankees were able to get to him for five runs when he faced them on June 7, but he struck out nine over six frames. Look for him to take advantage of a Yankees lineup that may need a turn through the order to get settled in.

Garrett Crochet over 17.5 outs recorded (-180 at DraftKings)
We’re doubling up on Crochet in this spot, this time backing him individually. As good as the Yankees rate offensively, we’re still betting on length from Crochet, who delivered six frames against them in his last start. He’s completed at least six innings in each of his past three starts and in seven of his past 10. If the Yankees get off to a flat start — they’re traveling to Boston following their series finale in Kansas City — Crochet, theoretically, will have an easier pathway to deliver a deep start.

Mets moneyline (-165 at ESPNBET)
The Mets didn’t get to enjoy an official off day, but they completed their sweep over the Nationals at 3:50 on Thursday afternoon. They’ll host the Tampa Bay Rays at Citi Field, where they’re 27-7; plus they’ve won eight of their past 10 and six in a row. The Rays did have an off day following their series loss to the Red Sox, but they’ll enter Friday’s contest riding a two-game skid and with Taj Bradley on the hill. Bradley has struggled on the road, producing a 4.49 xFIP despite a favorable (lucky) .239 BABIP.

Juan Soto 2 or more hits + runs + RBI (-110 at DraftKings)
We’re going to keep jumping on Soto props as he appears to have snapped out of his lengthy slump to open the season. He’s batting .378 with four homers and an OPS over 1.333 in June. And it’s not just about Soto in this spot. The Mets’ dominance at home is due, largely in part, to their favorable offensive splits at Citi Field. Not only are we bullish on Soto finding ways to get on base and/or inflict damage, but we’re confident in the hitters around him remaining hot against Rays right-hander Taj Bradley. 

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Could the Pacers Stun the Basketball World and Head Back to OKC Up 3-1?

If you haven’t been taking the Pacers seriously, you probably started after their convincing performance in Game 3. But the Thunder have bounced back well from losses this postseason, so a 3-1 lead is far from inevitable for Indiana.

No. 1 Thunder vs. No. 4 Pacers
8:30pm ET on ABC
(Pacers lead 2-1)

• Spread: Thunder -6 (-110), Pacers +6 (-110)

  • 53% of the money is with Oklahoma City, but 58% of the bets are with Indiana

• Moneyline: Thunder -230, Pacers +190

• Total (226.5): Over -112, Under -108

*Stats in Playoffs

Game 1: Pacers won 111-110 at Oklahoma City

• Leading scorers: Pascal Siakam (19) | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (38)

• Leading rebounds: Aaron Nesmith (12) | Isaiah Hartenstein (9)

• Leading assists: Tyrese Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard (6) | Jalen Williams (6)

Game 2: Thunder won 123-107 in Oklahoma City

• Leading scorers: Tyrese Haliburton (17) | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (34)

• Leading rebounds: Pascal Siakam (7) | Isaiah Hartenstein (8)

• Leading assists: Tyrese Haliburton (6) | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (8) 

Game 3: Pacers won 116-107 in Indiana

• Leading scorers: Jalen Williams (26) | Bennedict Mathurin (27)

• Leading rebounds: Chet Holmgren (10) | Tyrese Haliburton (9)

• Leading assists: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (4) | Tyrese Haliburton (11)

Dodgers Sluggers Have Fared Well vs. Tonight’s Giants Starter

• Romy Gonzalez (Red Sox) vs. Ryan Yarbrough (Yankees): 4-5, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI

• Cody Bellinger (Yankees) vs. Garrett Crochet (Red Sox): 4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI

• William Contreras (Brewers) vs. Erick Fedde (Cardinals): 8-14, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K

• Christian Yelich (Brewers) vs. Erick Fedde (Cardinals): 8-15, 2 2B, 4 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

• Enrique Hernandez (Dodgers) vs. Logan Webb (Giants): 4-7, 1 2B, 4 RBI

• Sal Frelick (Brewers) vs. Erick Fedde (Cardinals): 4-6, 1 3B, 2 RBI, 2 BB

• Hunter Goodman (Rockies) vs. Bryce Elder (Braves): 3-6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 3 K

• Alex Verdugo (Braves) vs. German Marquez (Rockies): 4-8, 2 2B, 1 BB

• Matt Olson (Braves) vs. German Marquez (Rockies): 6-13, 2 2B, 2 BB, 2 K

• Ozzie Albies (Braves) vs. German Marquez (Rockies): 6-14, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 K

• Mookie Betts (Dodgers) vs. Logan Webb (Giants): 15-36, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

• Xander Bogaerts (Padres) vs. Ryne Nelson (Diamondbacks): 4-9, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 1 K

• Freddie Freeman (Dodgers) vs. Logan Webb (Giants): 14-37, 3 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 5 K

• Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) vs. Logan Webb (Giants): 4-11, 2 2B, 4 BB, 3 K

• Max Muncy (Dodgers) vs. Logan Webb (Giants): 9-27, 2 2B, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 5 BB, 7 K

• Nick Castellanos (Phillies) vs. Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays): 9-27, 4 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 6 K

In the News 

• Antonio Brown is reportedly being sought by law enforcement on a charge of attempted murder.

• What an MLB debut — he took a no-hitter into the sixth, then had to leave with an injury.

• An NFL first-round rookie left training camp due to a contract dispute.

• The NHL’s Hart Trophy for most valuable player went to a goalie for the first time since 2015.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 2pm: Arizona vs. No. 13 Coastal Carolina in the MCWS on ESPN/ESPN+

• 7pm: Louisville vs. No. 8 Oregon State in the MCWS on ESPN/ESPN+

• 8:30pm: Thunder vs. Pacers on ABC (Game 4)

• 10:30pm: Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes on FS1

Photo of the Day