Nine of 14 Teams Up 3-0 in NBA Finals Have Finished Off the Sweep

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: History is with the Celtics
- NBA: Luka’s last stand?
- MLB: Luis Gil’s consistency
- News: Panthers up 3-0

Fourteen teams have gone up 3-0 in the NBA Finals and nine of them have swept their opponents. The 1951 Knicks are the only team to force a Game 7 after being down 0-3. The last time a team won two games after falling in an 0-3 hole was in 1996 when Supersonics made the Bulls sweat. All that is to say: Enjoy the NBA while you still can, because it’s about done for the season.

In today’s newsletter, Chris is looking for a big game from Luka Doncic with the season on the line, but doesn’t expect that to be enough. In baseball, Malcolm is tracking Corbin Carroll’s consistency against right-handed pitchers and Cleveland’s road success against the spread.

Luka Doncic over 3.5 threes (-122 at DraftKings)
Luka has been the butt of everyone's jokes and every critics' scorn for the last 48 hours, fresh off an embarrassing defensive performance and a loss that he blames himself for. But we've seen this story before. The 6'7" Slovenien star always responds after criticism, and usually that means launching fearless threes early and often. Doncic always plays with the bravado of a guy who knows he's the best player on the court; and that same disposition turns even more aggressive in desperate circumstances. We anticipate 10 or more long-ball attempts, so we must look at this over.

Celtics/Mavericks 1Q over 54.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)
The first quarter has consistently been the highest scoring period all series, averaging 57 ppg through three contests. The biggest reason why is Dallas' energy, specifically coming from Luka Doncic. Since we expect the enigmatic guard to be at his most aggressive right after tip-off in a win-or-stay-home scenario, we also expect the Celtics to answer right back — just like they did after they fell to a 13-point deficit midway through the 1st quarter in Game 3. Neither team is shy to launch threes early, and the tempo has been at its highest in the first 12 minutes.

Celtics 2nd QTR +0.5 (-115 at BetOnline)
Three games in, one of the most obvious differences between Boston and Dallas is the disparity in energy level. The Celtics just appear more spry, more fit, more able when they need to comeback from a deficit. A huge part of that is the easy road they had to get to the NBA Finals, but their depth is also very formidable. Guys like Luke Kornet, Peyton Pritchard and Sam Hauser are often difference makers off the bench, and in turn Boston's core can refresh and outpace their opponent when they return. Assuming Dallas is at their best early, betting on a sharp 2nd quarter for Boston makes too much sense.

Celtics -1 (-105 at Bovada)
The Mavericks are at home again and will undoubtedly hope to surge in Game 4, but everything points toward another Boston victory. Luka Doncic has looked extremely lethargic, especially in the second half, and while Kyrie finally had a nice breakout performance in Game 3, Dallas' supporting cast has been quiet all series. The psychological challenge to truly believe that your team can avenge an 0-3 deficit is trying enough. Add in Boston's size and physicality on defense and it's easy to see why many teams in this position just capitulate. All the momentum resides with the C's.

Phillies vs. Orioles no runs first inning (-120 at FanDuel) 
This game features two of the highest-scoring teams in the majors, but the first inning might be surprisingly quiet. Ranger Suarez, a leading contender for the NL Cy Young, boasts a 1.81 ERA with 85 strikeouts in 79.2 innings. He’s well-equipped to handle the Orioles’ offense early, known for neutralizing strong lineups. On the other side, Kyle Bradish has a 2.62 ERA and hasn’t allowed a home run all season, crucial against the Phillies’ power hitters. Bradish’s consistency on the mound makes him a reliable option to keep the Phillies in check initially. Both pitchers are in excellent form, which could lead to a slow start offensively.

Cleveland +1.5 (-184 at FanDuel) 
The Guardians have a strong record against the spread this season, especially on the road where they are 22-15. Kevin Gausman, despite a good recent outing, has struggled at home with a 6.68 ERA over six starts in Toronto. The Guardians’ ability to cover the spread is notable given their consistent performance in away games.

Pirates moneyline (-104 at FanDuel) 
Rockies’ starter Ryan Feltner has been hit hard at Coors Field, with opponents batting .340 against him and allowing 22 runs in 24.2 innings. The Pirates have also had success against Feltner in the past, with a .359/.590/.949 slash line in 39 at-bats. Pittsburgh’s offense should capitalize on both Feltner and the shaky Rockies bullpen, which has a 5.62 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. The Pirates are also 6-4 in their last 10 games, showing a consistent form that can take advantage of the Rockies’ pitching weaknesses. 

Reds vs. Brewers over 7.5 total runs (-110 at FanDuel)
The Brewers previously managed to get six hits and seven runs off Hunter Greene, despite striking out nine times. Freddy Peralta’s recent struggles, with a 6.48 ERA in June and five walks in his last start, suggest the Reds’ hot offense (.273 batting average and .779 OPS in June) can push this game over the total. The Reds have been particularly patient at the plate this month, which could further exploit Peralta’s control issues. Given the hitting form of both teams, especially the Reds, the potential for a high-scoring game is significant.

Luis Gil over 16.5 outs recorded (-114 at FanDuel) 
Luis Gil has been consistent, going over this line in eight straight games with a 2.64 xERA and a .175 xBA. Boston’s offense has been strong recently, ranking sixth in wRC+ over the last 14 days, but their low walk rate (7.7% over the last 30 days) plays into Gil’s strength. He recently pitched well against a tough Dodgers lineup, showcasing his ability to handle high-pressure situations. Gil’s control and ability to limit walks are key factors that could help him go deep into this game, despite Boston’s hot bats.

Sean Manaea under 16.5 outs (-114 at FanDuel) 
Sean Manaea has struggled recently, with a 10.61 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over his last two starts. San Diego’s offense, ranked first in wRC+ (144) and second in wOBA (.365) over the last 14 days, has been particularly potent on the road. They lead the MLB in road batting average (.288) and have consistently produced runs away from home. Manaea’s recent form and the Padres’ offensive dominance on the road suggest he may have a short outing, unable to contain San Diego’s bats effectively.

Corbin Carroll over 1.5 total bases (+105 at DraftKings)
Diamondbacks center fielder Corbin Carroll has been impressive against right-handed pitching lately, showcasing a strong batting performance with consistent line drives and hard contact. Leading off, he’s been a key player, making it difficult for pitchers to keep him off base. Tonight, he faces Chris Flexen, who has struggled against left-handed batters this season. Flexen’s tendency to allow fly balls and his lower strikeout rate play into Carroll’s strengths, making it likely for Carroll to achieve at least two total bases.

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