Thunder Nearly Double-Digit Favorites in Game 5 (-9.5, -108), Bettors Think That's Too Many Points

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: A look at next week’s NBA Draft

• Top 10 Bets: Thunder outscored Pacers 116-86 in first halves in OKC

• Game of the Day: Barkley says the NBA Finals are a “wrap,” bettors think Game 5 will be close

• Matchups: Dodgers’ Freeman is 6-13 in his career vs. Padres’ Cease

• Overtime: Where does Kevin Durant want to go now?

The NBA Draft begins next Wednesday. While there’s no suspense about the Mavericks taking Duke’s Cooper Flagg with the first pick, and the Spurs seem infatuated with Rutgers’ Dylan Harper at No. 2 (-4000), there’s a lot still up in the air. Between the difficulty of determining how a team really feels about a player and the hundreds of trade possibilities, the NBA Draft betting market is tough.

FanDuel has Baylor’s VJ Edgecombe (-135) the favorite to go third, and the odds get more jumbled after that. Edgecombe is also the favorite for the 4th pick (+200), followed by Harper’s teammate Ace Bailey (+230), Texas’s Tre Johnson (+410), and Flagg’s teammates Kon Knueppel (+430) and Khaman Maluach (+900).

Here are few mock drafts to get you ready for next week:

• ESPN: Debating 30 Round 1 picks, need, value

• The Ringer: 2025 NBA Draft Guide

• NBA.com: Consensus Mock Draft

• CBS Sports: Jeremiah Fears moves up to No. 6, Derik Queen jumps into top 10

• Yahoo Sports: NBA Draft Guide

• NBADraft.Net: 2025 Mock Draft

—Abe Rakov

P.S. The Dodgers announced late yesterday that Shohei Ohtani will return to the mound tonight against the Padres for his first start in 21 months — he wasn’t expected to pitch until after the All-Star break.

SGA is Shooting 48.5% While Averaging More Shots (23.8) Than in Any Other Series

By Chris Farley

Thunder first half -5.5 (-115 consensus)
The Thunder did their part to turn around the series on Friday, avenging a 9-point deficit midway through the third quarter to methodically get ahead of the Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Now the NBA Finals return to Oklahoma City, where the home team controlled their opponent for six out of eight quarters (180-152) in their first two games. Only the third and fourth quarters of Game 1 did Indiana thrive. In the first 24 minutes of both contests, the Thunder outscored the Pacers by a significant margin (116-86). At home the Thunder have been nearly untouchable in the first half of every playoff game, 9-2 ATS for +6.65 units on assuming all one-unit wagers. With added momentum following their effort on Friday, we love OKC to cover early.

Pacers vs. Thunder first half under 109.5 points (-110 consensus)
The location of the NBA Finals has been a very important factor. In two games at Oklahoma City, the first half was very low-scoring, 102 points in game one and 100 points in game two. Then the game sped up in the second halves (119 in game one and 130 in game two). At Indiana, it was the exact opposite, higher-scoring in the first half of games three and four (124 and 117), but then far less productive in the second (99 and 98). We don't usually follow simple patterns like this, especially in a small sample size like four games, but in this case the data backs it up. At home throughout the postseason, OKC's defense has been phenomenal early, holding opponents to just 100.6 combined points per game in the first two quarters, and Indiana only averages 52.8 points per game on the road.

Alex Caruso over 10.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
In every game, if there's one player that a young Thunder roster can depend on to make a big shot, it's Alex Caruso. The 31-year-old, blue-collar guard has been called the "GOAT" of their program by Chet Holmgren, and we see why. His relentless defensive effort and playmaking ability has been a major catalyst for the Thunder throughout the playoffs, and once again he came up big in a series-altering win at Indiana three nights ago. Back at home he's averaging just 10.5 points per game, which is not-coincidentally where his prop remains for Game 5. But Caruso has been more featured in the NBA Finals because of his clutch ability, averaging 14.8 points per game against Indiana. At the most pivotal inflection point of the series, we can't avoid this wager.

Pacers vs. Thunder under 224 points (-103 at BetOnline)
It's not rocket science to declare that Game 5 of a 2-2 series is an extremely crucial juncture: Whoever wins Game 5 will be one victory away from an NBA championship. In the last two meetings, scoring and tempo has fallen dramatically in the final two quarters (just 99 points in Game 3, 98 in Game 4, with a pace of 94.00). Deviating from the regular season production and from what we saw from each program for most of the playoffs, shooting percentages have also decreased in dramatic fashion (OKC is shooting 46.6% in the last two second halves, IND just 42.3%). While earlier games saw explosive endings in the final two quarters, defensive effort will only intensify at these late playoff stages, and since we already like a lower-scoring first half, we can't imagine this gets beyond the 220s.

Shae Gilgeous-Alexander over 34.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
The NBA's MVP tends to shine brightest in the biggest moments, as the MVP should, and Monday will present the biggest stage to do so. Gilgeous-Alexander is taking more shots (23.8) than he has in any other series in the playoffs, as he should, and he's still hitting at a remarkable 48.4% from the field. In the NBA Finals he's putting up 32.8 points per game, which is also the highest average of any series in his 2025 postseason. His last eight home games have been particularly impressive. He's averaging 34.2 points per game in that span and has scored 34+ in six out of nine of those affairs, an amazingly consistent streak of exceptional performance. With an NBA championship and NBA Finals MVP in his sights, now is not the time to fade the 26-year-old phenom.

NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers over 8.5 wins (+110 at FanDuel))
We know you're probably sick of seeing this bet year in, year out from NFL prognosticators, but its value is impossible to deny. The Steelers are riding a ridiculous streak of 21 consecutive winning seasons, 18 of those under legendary coach Mike Tomlin, and now they officially have Aaron Rodgers under center. The aging future Hall of Fame quarterback didn't look great as the Jets' starter last season, but we tend to think a large part of that was a weak offensive scheme and a disjointed roster. Pittsburgh's offensive line has a ton of potential following a year of injury and adjustment, and the addition of DK Metcalf and Robert Woods give Rodgers plenty of weapons to slice and dice defenses. And we know the Steelers' defense will hold their own. We like another year of winning in steel-town.

Buffalo Bills over 11.5 wins (-150 at FanDuel)
We're here to argue that the Bills are set up for a historic season, as long as they can avoid major injuries. Last season Buffalo was 5-1 against their divisional foes, and that mark probably would have been 6-0 if they cared about their Week 18 matchup against New England. In any case, their schedule is even easier this year, with cross-conference matchups against the lowly NFC South, which is still in flux. We project nine wins against AFC East and NFC South opponents alone (10 total games), which means they would only need three more victories against their other opponents (BAL, KC, HOU, PIT, CIN, CLE, PHI). With a stacked roster and significant signings like Joey Bosa, Joshua Palmer and Larry Ogunjobi, Josh Allen and his teammates are set for a big 2025 campaign.

Baker Mayfield to throw for most passing yards (+1400 on FanDuel)
In a press conference, Mike Evans recently said he's playing alongside the most talented group of receivers he ever has in his career. Who are we to disagree? After a season where Baker Mayfield threw for 4,500 passing yards (3rd overall), the Bucs' new gunslinger has an assortment of talent around Evans and Chris Godwin, including first-round draft pick Emeka Egbuka, who set the Ohio State record for career receptions (205). Against a NFC South division where we think every team not named the Bucs will have a bottom-10 defense, Mayfield's proclivity to throw the long ball and a dynamic group of weapons puts the QB in a uniquely advantageous position for a great price here.

Tennis

Mirra Andreeva vs. Magdalena Frech over 19.5 games (-111 at Bovada)
For top-ranked players, Grand Slam tournaments garner the most preparation and attention, but lower-circuits can be proving grounds, segments of the year to experiment. Mirra Andreeva, the 6th-ranked woman in the world, had high hopes at Roland Garros before a stunning loss to Lois Boisson. Regardless, the 18-year-old phenom is playing phenomenal tennis in 2025, 31-8 overall with a spectacular 131 aces. The issue is we're just not sure how much she cares about the event in Berlin, and she's had issues on grass before, telling the media it's not her favorite surface. Meanwhile, her first-round opponent is no pushover, responsible for booting Ons Jabeur out of Paris in the first round. This won't be a walk in the park for the Russian.

Eva Lys vs. Paula Badosa over 21.5 games (-106 at FanDuel)
Paula Badosa is still battling back issues, but that hasn't limited her much this season. The Spaniard is back to playing great tennis, ranked 10th in the world by the WTA and coming off an impressive two wins at Roland Garros. On grass she has little experience, though, only 38 matches in her career. And while her 60.53% win-rate on the surface is solid, the green is hardly her expertise. Insert Eva Lys. The less-experienced Lys has battled injury issues of her own but packs a big punch in her racket when healthy. She's looked great in moments this spring, beating Peyton Stearns in Paris and taking Elena Rybakina to the brink. We like her to extend this battle, too. 

Pacers are Back to a 9.5-Point Underdog in Game 5 in Oklahoma City

The Thunder are back home and nearly double-digit favorites again. Neither team has won two games in a row yet in the Finals, but Charles Barkley still thinks “this series is a wrap” after Oklahoma City’s Game 4 win in Indianapolis.

Pacers vs. Thunder
8:30pm on ABC
Tied at 2-2

• Spread: Thunder -9.5 (-108), Pacers +9.5 (-112)

  • 60% of the money and 71% of the bets are with Indiana

• Moneyline: Thunder -405, Pacers +320

• Total (224.5): Over -110, Under -110

*Stats in NBA Finals

Game 4: Thunder won 111-104 in Indiana

• Leading scorers: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (35) | Pascal Siakam (20)

• Leading rebounds: Chet Helmgren (15) | Aaron Nesmith (9)

• Leading assists: Jalen Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein (3) | Tyrese Haliburton (7)

Game 3: Pacers won 116-107 in Indiana

• Leading scorers: Jalen Williams (26) | Bennedict Mathurin (27)

• Leading rebounds: Chet Holmgren (10) | Tyrese Haliburton (9)

• Leading assists: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (4) | Tyrese Haliburton (11)

Game 2: Thunder won 123-107 in Oklahoma City

• Leading scorers: Tyrese Haliburton (17) | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (34)

• Leading rebounds: Pascal Siakam (7) | Isaiah Hartenstein (8)

• Leading assists: Tyrese Haliburton (6) | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (8) 

Game 1: Pacers won 111-110 at Oklahoma City

• Leading scorers: Pascal Siakam (19) | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (38)

• Leading rebounds: Aaron Nesmith (12) | Isaiah Hartenstein (9)

• Leading assists: Tyrese Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard (6) | Jalen Williams (6)

Current Phillies Bat .306 Lifetime vs. Marlins’ Alcantara

• Freddie Freeman (Dodgers) vs. Dylan Cease (Padres): 6-13, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

• Alec Bohm (Phillies) vs. Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): 10-27, 1 2B, 1 3B, 7 RBI, 1 BB, 4 K

• Trea Turner (Phillies) vs. Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): 13-37, 2 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 7 K

• Michael Conforto (Dodgers) vs. Dylan Cease (Padres): 5-15, 3 2B, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 6 K

• J.T. Realmuto (Phillies) vs. Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): 11-36, 1 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 0 BB, 7 K

• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) vs. Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): 10-35, 3 2B, 2 RBI, 7 BB, 11 K

• Rowdy Tellez (Mariners) vs. Lucas Giolito (Red Sox): 4-7, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

• Randy Arozarena (Mariners) vs. Lucas Giolito (Red Sox): 4-9, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 RBI, 3 BB, 1 K

• Ryan O’Hearn (Orioles) vs. Ryan Pepiot (Rays): 3-6, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 2 K

• Taylor Walls (Rays) vs. Zach Eflin (Orioles): 3-8, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 K

In the News 

• Kevin Durant is interested in joining three teams, but the Suns don’t seem to care.

• Desmond Bane is headed to the Magic after the Grizzlies traded the guard for a haul.

• Pacers coach Rick Carlisle said the criticism surrounding lightning-rod referee Scott Foster is “terrible and unfair and unjust and stupid.”

• The Panthers, unlike the Oilers, have no goalie issues during this Stanley Cup run.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3pm: Chelsea vs. LAFC on TBS

• 7:05pm: Angels vs. Yankees on MLB Network

• 8:30pm: Pacers vs. Thunder for Game 5 on ABC

• 10:10pm: Padres vs. Dodgers on MLB Network

Photo of the Day