After Four Games Under the Total, Game 5 Line is Down to 209.5

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Avoiding sweeps
- NBA: Look for Jaylen Brown
- MLB: Red Sox on a roll
- News: Betts suffers broken hand

Both the NBA and NHL avoided championship sweeps, with the Mavericks and Oilers taking win-or-stay-home Game 4s in convincing fashion. The NBA Finals return to Boston tonight, while the Stanley Cup Final heads back to South Florida tomorrow. We have more on the NBA below, but in the NHL, the Panthers are favored with a -137 moneyline and are +195 at a -1.5 spread.

In today’s newsletter, Jason is covering Game 5 of the NBA Finals, where the Celtics are looking to close out the series after that embarrassing blowout loss on Friday. In MLB, Craig is tracking Pirates’ as-good-as-advertised rookie Paul Skenes and the streaking (in a good way this time) Mets.

Mavericks +6.5 (-105 at Caesars)
The NBA Finals have been an absolute whirlwind. The Mavericks looked gassed until Game 4, and then they stepped on the gas and dominated the Celtics by 48 points. Boston had the worst display of offense in an NBA Finals game that we’ve ever seen, and they’re 6.5-point favorites following that performance? While the Celtics have the advantage of being at home, I’d much rather take the points with the Mavericks. The line movement is also following that direction.

Mavericks vs. Celtics over 209.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
In the NBA Finals, all four games have been under the total. In Game 1, the total closed at 216 — each game since has gradually decreased by a couple of points. By Game 4, the total was at 211.5 and still went under. Ultimately, at least one team has missed out on 100 points in all four games. However, the total has dropped nearly seven points. Sportsbooks are begging people to grab the over at this point. The Celtics shouldn’t have a lackluster performance at home in Game 5. Meanwhile, Luka Doncic has shot it better from downtown on the road against the Celtics in this series. 

Dereck Lively II over 8.5 points (-103 at BetRivers)
Dereck Lively II averaged 10.5 points per game against the Celtics in the regular season. Now, he’s added 6.5 points per game in the NBA Finals. However, over the last two matchups, Lively looks like he figured it out. He’s added back-to-back doubles and has scored 11 points in both games — with 22+ minutes in both matchups. Lively saw 22 minutes in Friday’s matchup, while Gafford only played 10 minutes. He also doubled Gafford’s minutes in Game 3. Although Gafford starts, Lively should get more minutes and opportunities tonight. 

Jaylen Brown over 25.5 points (+123 at BetRivers)
If the series ended before tonight’s game, Jaylen Brown would have won the NBA Finals MVP. He’s added 20.8 points per game, but he had a 30-point game against the Mavericks in Game 3, shooting 12-for-22 from the field and attempting nine threes. In reality, Dallas has never done a great job defending shooting guards: They rank 22nd in points allowed to shooting guards this season. Brown will be much more aggressive after a subpar Game 4 in a potential championship-clinching game. 

Mets +0.5 first 7 innings (-125 at DraftKings)
The Mets are 11-4 since Francisco Lindor called a players-only meeting, and they’re riding a five-game winning streak. They enter the series with better road splits, including win-loss and runs per game, while the Rangers are 4-6 over their last 10 and mired in a three-game skid. They also may have to rely heavily on their bullpen (4.67 ERA) as starter Jon Gray continues to build stamina following an IL stint.

Reds under 0.5 first 3 innings (+100 at DraftKings)
Pirates rookie Paul Skenes has been as advertised across his first six starts, and we like him to make a strong first impression on the Reds. Skenes has a 0.61 ERA the first time through the order, and he has only surrendered 10 hits across the first three innings of his starts. The Reds will need to either string hits together or hit an early homer to spoil this wager.

Sonny Gray over 6.5 strikeouts (-125 at DraftKings)
Gray has been knocked around a bit in recent starts, but that is not deterring us from siding with him in Miami. The Marlins are 2-11 since June 1 and are striking out at a league-worst 27.7% clip over that span. Gray has struck out 24 of the 69 (34.8%) of the hitters he’s faced across three June starts and reached seven punchouts in four of his last six turns.

Nick Pivetta over 17.5 outs (-108 at FanDuel)
The Red Sox took back-to-back series from the Phillies and Yankees, and now they hit the road, where they have a better win-loss record. A six-game stretch against perhaps MLB’s top two teams takes a toll, particularly on the bullpen, so we’re looking for Pivetta to offer the Red Sox length against a Blue Jays lineup that consistently punches below its weight. We’re banking on the right blend of efficiency from Pivetta en route to six innings.

Tigers under 3.5 runs (-138 at FanDuel)
Atlanta’s Max Fried was roughed up a bit his last time out, but that was against the Orioles. He has been virtually unhittable across multiple stretches this season, and he’ll have an opportunity to dominate the Tigers, who enter tonight’s contest with a .647 OPS against southpaws and a .288 wOBA since June 1, sixth-lowest in the league. Fried and the Braves have held five of their last six opponents under 3.5 runs. 

Rockies moneyline first 5 innings (+124 at FanDuel)
We’re setting aside the stats for a moment to take the “human angle” in this spot. The Dodgers put star shortstop Mookie Betts (broken hand) and starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto (rotator cuff) on the injured list with ailments that will keep them sidelined for an extended amount of time. “Next man up” is the popularized mantra, but when two linchpins hit the shelf, even a team like the Dodgers can be prone to a brief emotional letdown.

Giants vs. Cubs under 5.5 runs first 5 innings (-122 at FanDuel)
We like this pitching matchup featuring Javier Assad and Jordan Hicks. Assad has been lights out at home, posting a 1.67 ERA and limiting opponents to a .207 batting average at Wrigley. He has also been sharp his first two times through the order. San Francisco’s Hicks, meanwhile, continues to keep the ball on the ground and in the park (for the most part), and his groundball tendencies will be welcome on a warm, hitter-friendly evening.

In the News