Heliot Ramos is Batting .529 in June Against Lefties

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Celtics win 
- MLB: Phillies should start quick 
- News: Premier League schedule released

With the Boston Celtics’ win last night, Al Horford ended his run of 185 career playoff games without an NBA title. Only Karl Malone had more playoff appearances without a championship (193). Of active players, James Harden is next on the list at 166 games followed by Chris Paul at 149.

With the NBA season coming to a close, we can look ahead to the 2024-2025 campaign. According to FanDuel, the Celtics are favored to repeat as NBA champions (+300), with the Nuggets at +750, Timberwolves at +850, Mavericks at +900, and Bucks and Thunder at +1000.

In today’s newsletter, Jack is tracking Heliot Ramos’s .529 batting average against lefties in June and Adley Rutschman’s .538 average against Nestor Cortes in 15 career at bats.

Phillies first five innings moneyline (-135 at FanDuel)
This is a good spot for the Phillies to jump out to an early lead. In 37 combined plate appearances against Padres starter Michael King, current Phillies hitters are batting .353 with a .437 xOBA and a .519 expected slugging percentage. Aaron Nola is coming off his worst start of the season, but he’s shown an impressive ability to bounce back from poor outings. In two other starts this year in which Nola gave up at least nine hits and four earned runs, he rebounded with shutout performances in his next start both times. 

Red Sox moneyline (-116 at FanDuel)
This is a cheap price on one of the hottest teams and starting pitchers in baseball. The Red Sox have won six of their last eight while averaging 6.1 runs per game during that stretch. They rank second in MLB in OPS (.858), wOBA (.372) and wRC+ (138) against righties this month (the Blue Jays are starting Chris Bassitt). Boston is also 9-5 this season when Tanner Houck takes the mound, and they’ve won five straight Houck starts by an average of 5.6 runs per game. 

Giants @ Cubs first five innings under 4.5 (+100 at DraftKings)
Sportsbooks are expecting a high-scoring affair between the Giants and Cubs due to the strong wind projected to blow out to left-center field in Chicago, but this is a good spot to play against that. Logan Webb is giving up the fifth-highest ground-ball rate (57.0%) among qualified pitchers, and current Cubs hitters are batting just .209 against him with a .285 xwOBA. On the other side, Justin Steele has surrendered only two earned runs in his last 25 innings of work, and current Giants hitters are batting .195 against him with a .280 xwOBA. 

Griffin Canning under 16.5 outs recorded (-105 at DraftKings)
Griffin Canning has gone over this line in six of his last eight starts, but it won’t be as easy against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers are patient at the plate and love to work the count, as they have the lowest swing rate, the third-lowest first-pitch swing rate and the fourth-highest walk rate in MLB. Canning hasn’t gone over 99 pitches in any of his 14 starts this year for the Angels, and he’s left the game before reaching 90 pitches seven times.

Triston McKenzie 2+ walks and Michael Lorenzen 2+ walks parlay (+121 at DraftKings)
Nothing gets the juices flowing quite like a two-man walks parlay. Triston McKenzie has walked at least two batters in 12 of his 13 starts this season for the Guardians, and the Mariners have the second-highest walk rate against righties this month (10.8%). Similarly, Michael Lorenzen has surrendered at least two walks in nine of his 11 starts this year for the Rangers, and current Mets hitters have a 12.8% walk rate in 78 combined plate appearances against him. 

Adley Rutschman and Heliot Ramos to record a hit parlay (-107 at FanDuel)
Adley Rutschman and Heliot Ramos are staring down friendly matchups at the dish on Tuesday. In 15 career at-bats against Nestor Cortes, Baltimore’s Rutschman is batting .538 with seven singles and a double. He’s also batting .420 against lefties this season. Speaking of crushing lefties, San Francisco’s Ramos is batting .438 against southpaws this year and .529 in June, and he gets to face another one in Justin Steele. 

Jose Ramirez to hit a home run (+450 at DraftKings)
Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez is higher priced than normal in the home run market because the wind is projected to blow slightly in from right field in Cleveland, but several other factors are going in his favor. For one, Mariners starter Bryce Miller is giving up the third-highest barrel rate (11.9%) among 124 qualified pitchers, leading to 12 homers allowed in 14 starts. Progressive Field also ranks as the fourth-friendliest park to home runs this season, especially to right field. Ramirez is +265 at FanDuel to go yard, so make sure to look on DraftKings for this one. 

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