Skubal Has Given Up Just 1 ER in 4 Games + 10 Bets to Watch Today

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: The Stanley Cup champion Panthers are not the consensus favorites for 2026

• Top 10 Bets: Boston’s last 7 games have averaged just 4.7 total runs

• Player Profile: Vinicius Junior is one to watch in Real Madrid’s CWC opener

• Matchups: Randy Arozarena has had Garrett Crochet’s number so far

• Overtime: Caitlin Clark drew a flagrant foul, and the Fever’s coach had a rant for the refs

The Florida Panthers are Stanley Cup champions again! But they’re not the favorites, at least at FanDuel, to win their third-straight Cup in 2026.

That would be the Hurricanes, who at +700 edge out both Florida and their Stanley Cup Final opponent Edmonton (+750). The Stars and Avalanche follow at +850, with Vegas not too far back at +1200. The longest shots are Chicago and San Jose at +50000.

This year’s Conn Smythe Trophy went to Sam Bennett, who led the NHL in postseason goals. The Panthers also needed some “magic” from someone else.

—Patrick Dorsey

Skubal Has Given Up Just 1 Earned Run, Forced 32 Strikeouts Over Past 4 Starts

By Jack Dougherty

Mariners vs. Red Sox under 3.5 runs first 5 innings (-108 at FanDuel)
The Red Sox have gotten used to playing low-scoring games recently. Boston’s last seven games have featured an average of just 4.7 total runs, and this shapes up to be another pitchers’ duel. Garrett Crochet has been lights out with two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts and 13 of his 15 starts this season. He’s also held Mariners hitters to a .192 xBA and a .309 xwOBA in his career. On the other side, Red Sox hitters are batting just .133 with a .206 xwOBA against Luis Castillo. 

Tigers -1.5 (-126 at FanDuel)
This is a matchup the Tigers should dominate. Tarik Skubal has been nearly untouchable lately with only one earned run and 32 strikeouts over his last four starts, and the Pirates stand little to no chance against him. Pittsburgh ranks dead last in MLB in batting average (.137), OPS (.445) and wRC+ (24) against left-handed pitching this month. As for the Tigers, they have a .905 OPS and a 150 wRC+ against southpaws in the same span, making this a tough matchup for Andrew Heaney. 

Eduardo Rodriguez under 17.5 outs recorded (-146 at FanDuel)
It pays to fade Rodriguez on the road. The Diamondbacks left-hander has a 6.91 ERA, a 1.709 WHIP and a .891 opponent OPS in away games this season. He’s also gone under this line in five of his last six starts and hasn’t thrown more than 81 pitches since May 4. The Blue Jays have one of the most patient lineups in MLB, and they’ve cruhed left-handed pitching all season. 

Jack Kochanowicz under 3.5 strikeouts (-115 at DraftKings)
Kochanowicz isn’t an effective swing-and-miss pitcher. The Angels right-hander ranks in the ninth percentile in strikeout rate (15.8%) and the 16th percentile in whiff rate (20.5%) this season. His only avenue to strikeouts is his 27.9% chase rate, but the Yankees have the lowest chase rate (25.7%) in MLB this year. There’s also a good chance New York’s offense jumps on Kochanowicz early and chases him from the game. 

Stephen Kolek 2+ walks allowed (-215 at DraftKings)
This is a juicy price to pay on a walks prop, but there’s still value on this number. Kolek has a 50.7% out-of-zone rate this season, and he ranks in just the 26th percentile in chase rate (25.9%). That combination has led to two or more walks allowed in seven of his eight starts. As for the matchup, the Dodgers have the highest walk rate against righties this year (10.7%), and they have the fourth-lowest chase rate and the fifth-lowest swing rate in MLB. 

Golf: Travelers Championship

Round 1 matchup: Daniel Berger > Sam Burns (+100 at DraftKings)
The U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club took a lot out of the contenders, both mentally and physically. That’s especially true for Burns, who entered the final round with a one-shot lead but shot an 8-over 78 on Sunday to blow his chances of winning his first major. It won’t be easy for him to get back into a competitive environment just four days later. Burger doesn’t have any of that mental wear and tear after his T47 finish, and he has a runner-up and a T5 in four career starts at TPC River Highlands.

Tournament matchup: Akshay Bhatia > Sungjae Im (+100 at DraftKings)
Bhatia shouldn’t be the underdog in this matchup. TPC River Highlands is all about sharp approach play, and Bhatia is swinging his irons much better than Im right now. The lefty has gained 12.48 true strokes on approach over his last three starts, and he ranks 21st in the Travelers field in strokes gained on approach over the last 24 rounds. He also finished T5 in his Travelers debut last year. As for Im, he ranks dead last in the field in that same stat. Im hasn’t gained strokes with his irons since the Masters in April.

Patrick Cantlay top-20 finish (-115 at FanDuel)
Cantlay consistently performs well on shorter courses that emphasize short-iron play and putting, and TPC River Highlands fits that mold. The American has finished T15 or better in seven straight starts at the Travelers, including back-to-back top-five finishes. He’s recorded only one score worse than 67 in his last 12 competitive rounds at this golf course. Cantlay’s ball striking has been superb this season, and he’s gained strokes from putting in five straight starts at the Travelers. 

Sepp Straka top-20 finish (+115 at DraftKings)
We’re surprised to see this priced at plus money in a 72-man field. Straka ranks third on the PGA Tour this season in strokes gained on approach, second in greens in regulation percentage and fifth in proximity to the hole. If you take out his major championship performances this year, which have been terrible, Straka has finished in the top 20 in 11 of his 14 other starts. This is a great buy-low spot after his missed cut at the U.S. Open.

Collin Morikawa top-10 finish (+160 at DraftKings)
It’s been a struggle for Morikawa of late, but he’s coming off a strong U.S. Open performance in which he led the field in strokes gained on approach by a wide margin. He gained 2.88 true strokes on approach per round at Oakmont, which is the best mark of his entire career. The problem was that he couldn’t make a putt, so he finished a modest T23. If his putter heats up even a little bit at TPC River Highlands, Morikawa will be in good shape to contend.  

Vinicius Junior Could Shine for Real Madrid if Kylian Mbappe Misses CWC Opener

Note: The status of Real Madrid star Kylian Mbappe is expected to be a late decision after he missed training due to an illness.

Name: Vinicius Junior
Team: Real Madrid (Spain)
Position: Forward
Today’s Matchup: vs. Al-Hilal (Saudi Arabia) in the Club World Cup
2024-25 Stats (all competitions): 51 matches, 4,073 minutes, 20 goals, 14 assists

Past 5 Games

• vs. Real Sociedad: 0 G, 1 A, 1 SH, 1 ST, 0 FC, 0 FA

• at Barcelona: 0 G, 2 A, 1 SH, 1 ST, 3 FC, 3 FA

• vs. Celta Vigo: 0 G, 0 A, 2 SH, 0 ST, 0 FC, 3 FA

• at Barcelona (Copa del Rey): 0 G, 0 A, 6 SH, 4 ST, 0 FC, 3 FA

• vs. Getafe: 0 G, 0 A, 2 SH, 1 ST, 0 FC, 3 FA

Potential Bets

• 3+ shots (-220 at DraftKings), 2+ fouls suffered (-290 at DraftKings), to score or give assist (-145 at DraftKings).

Randy Arozarena Has Gotten On Base 6 of the 7 Times He’s Faced Garrett Crochet

• Randy Arozarena (Mariners) vs. Garrett Crochet (Red Sox): 3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 3 BB, 1 K

• Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) vs. Patrick Corbin (Rangers): 4-6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 K

• Keibert Ruiz (Nationals) vs. German Marquez (Rockies): 5-8, 2 2B, 4 RBI, 2 BB

• Francisco Lindor (Mets) vs. Chris Sale (Braves): 14-34, 2 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 1 BB, 7 K

• Jackson Chourio (Brewers) vs. Jameson Taillon (Cubs): 5-10, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 K

• TJ Friedl (Reds) vs. Bailey Ober (Twins): 3-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI

• Jeff McNeil (Mets) vs. Chris Sale (Braves): 3-6, 1 2B, 1 RBI

• Nathaniel Lowe (Nationals) vs. German Marquez (Rockies): 3-7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB

• Yainer Diaz (Astros) vs. Luis Severino (Athletics): 3-7, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 K

• Mike Trout (Angels) vs. Ryan Yarbrough (Yankees): 3-7, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

• Dane Myers (Marlins) vs. Ranger Suarez (Phillies): 5-12, 3 2B, 3 RBI, 3 K

• Rhys Hoskins (Brewers) vs. Jameson Taillon (Cubs): 4-11, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K

• Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks) vs. Eric Lauer (Blue Jays): 7-17, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 1 K

• Mark Canha (Royals) vs. Patrick Corbin (Rangers): 13-29, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K

• Ryan O’Hearn (Orioles) vs. Taj Bradley (Rays): 4-9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI

In the News 

• A flagrant foul on Caitlin Clark and a rant about officiating by the Fever’s coach overshadowed Indiana’s win Tuesday.

• Tyrese Haliburton’s status for the rest of the NBA Finals is unclear.

• It looks like Ace Bailey might be sliding in the NBA Draft; here’s why.

• MVP frontrunner Napheesa Collier left the Lynx’s Tuesday victory with an injury.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 2pm: Louisville vs. No. 13 Coastal Carolina in the MCWS on ESPN/ESPN+

• 3pm: Real Madrid vs. Al Hilal in the Club World Cup on TNT/truTV/DAZN

• 7pm: No. 3 Arkansas vs. No. 6 LSU in the MCWS on ESPN/ESPN+

• 7:05pm: Angels vs. Yankees on Prime Video

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