Labar: Assessing Preseason Predictions as the First CFP Rankings Approach

By Abby Labar
Sportmoney Columnist

We blinked and it’s Week 10. Excuse me, but what? We are quickly approaching a HUGE day, Tuesday, November 5th, for no other reason (; besides the first release of the College Football Playoff rankings of course. Preseason rankings and predictions are such a funny thing, especially with the uncertainty of how this season would play out. There are so many variables and factors involved. Often we’re spot on, other times we’re just way out in left field with who we think will finish the year as the last man standing. 

With this November expected to be one of the most unique and exciting we have witnessed in college football, I figured now is the perfect time to check in on preseason predictions and assess where those teams are currently, while giving you an idea of the current landscape headed into a crucial stretch of the season. 

We will start with the teams. The Top 3 coming into the season are still sitting pretty in Week 10:

Top 3 Teams in Preseason AP Top 25 Poll 

1. Georgia

2. Ohio State

3. Oregon

AP Top 25 Poll, Latest Rankings of Oct. 27th

1. Oregon 8-0

2. Georgia 6-1

3. Penn State 7-0

4. Ohio State 6-1

Odds via Fanduel as of Nov. 1

• Georgia +350

• Ohio State +410

• Oregon +440

  Georgia

  Spoiler alert: I mention this again below as to why Carson Beck hasn’t exceeded expectations. It all points to inconsistency. That’s been a story for a Georgia team that is still in great position at 6-1 and 2nd in the SEC. Here’s the deal though: The Dawgs had won 29 straight games and back-to-back national championships before last year's brutal SEC championship letdown, so they have to know that expectations are always going to be through the roof. It’s fair to nitpick such a talented coach and organization with the weapons they presented for 2024. Some fine-tuning and hope that somebody can stop this Oregon team might ultimately be all they need to take the crown back. 

  Ohio State

  Speaking of talent and expectations, entering the season the Buckeyes miraculously retained several of their younger guys that had NFL Draft potential. People were scared of this group. Fast forward and teams have been able to figure them out a little bit this year, especially as of late. Now is not the time to get tripped up when the momentum going into November is more important than ever. A loss to Oregon was a missed opportunity to prove their worth, and then after a bye week nearly falling to a lackluster Nebraska? No excuses here. Teams like Penn State are going to try to seize the day. Don’t disappoint us again, guys.

  Oregon

  This explosive offense is starting to feel like something that absolutely cannot be stopped, which explains why they’ve jumped into first with a perfect record to start the year. No. 1 in the country after week nine, they lived up to their top spot by pummeling Illinois with 35 first half points. With Ohio State ahead of the Ducks in the preseason polls, their ability to take care of business against the Buckeyes was a good boost at just the right time to propel them to where they are right now. Dan Lanning’s defense has rounded out a complete team as they’ve crept into 10th in scoring defense. Firing on all cylinders, this is going to be a fun team to watch into the New Year. 

Picking a Heisman winner might be even harder than trying to predict how the teams will finish because of the new College Football Playoff bracket. So much rides on how and if a player can help a team win. In the past, it was acceptable to not rely on championship potential because only four teams had a shot. But now with more opportunity comes a higher standard for all involved, including Heisman hopefuls. 

Heisman Preseason Favorites (Opening Odds via BetMGM)

• Dillon Gabriel +800

• Carson Beck +800

• Jalen Milroe +800

• Qwinn Ewers +800

Current Heisman Favorites (Nov. 1 via BetMGM)

• Dillon Gabriel +240

• Travis Hunter +250 (opened at +3500)

• Cam Ward +300 (opened at +2000)

  Dillon Gabriel

  Sure we love a good Cinderella story, but I also love when a player meets/exceeds already high expectations. Good for Dillon Gabriel staying atop where he belongs. It’s fun to root for the guy that’s working his way up, staying loyal to the game (he’s a sixth-year senior), getting the recognition he deserves and living up to a standard. A few hiccups against UCLA and Michigan State, but since then Gabriel has seven touchdowns and is averaging 11 yards per attempt in huge wins over Ohio State, Purdue and Illinois. He ranks first in NCAA in completion percentage and is among the top 10 in passing yards and completions per game. You can see his maturity on and off the field in interviews and the way he is poised in playing the game, which is exactly what a team needs in a leader as they enter unfamiliar postseason territory. 

  Carson Beck (+3500 6th-best odds)

  Inconsistency has been the name of the game for a guy that all eyes were on coming into the season. We saw a lot of potential in the way he played for the Bulldogs starting all 14 games last season. After several weeks of Beck not meeting expectations, Kirby Smart finally spoke to a direct question in his latest press conference: Was anything wrong with the star QB because of his production? Nothing specific was named by the head coach, but you could point to turnovers as well as the wide receiver corps failing to capitalize and help out their QB. The final weeks of the season, as well as Beck’s performance in the playoffs, will be telling of how he handles the pressure – and if the off-the-field leadership translates back to the field. 

  Jalen Milroe (+6600 8th best odds)

  Some say the two best performances of Milroe’s career have come off of bye weeks, and that’s just the opportunity presented to the Alabama QB at a crucial time when he could turn the tide (pun fully intended). As a dynamic quarterback, it’s tougher to assess the production of a player who brings so much to the field that you can’t measure. His physicality, his body type, the way he moves, and the “eye test” are more important than the statistics in evaluating how he helps his team. Watching him this year, it isn’t super surprising that rumors of injuries have circled when comparing him to the electricity we’ve seen him play with in the past. Milroe has confirmed he is healthy, so the question remains can he help a 6-2 Alabama team climb to the top of a tough conference down the stretch? If so, we will see him climb right back up to the top of the Heisman conversation as well.  

There you have it. Just like these teams, I tried my best. It’s an unprecedented season with so many new variables. It really is hard to predict the outcome. They (whoever they are) clearly did a pretty good job with preseason assessments when it came to the teams. Now the Heisman conversation? Buckle up for that one. Actually, maybe I’ll dive deeper into that in the coming weeks.