Labar: The Evolution and Current State of MLB First Innings

By Abby Labar
Sportmoney Columnist

It’s been about a month of writing these columns, and I wanted to start by saying thanks to everyone who has been reading and (hopefully) enjoying them! With that being said, I’ve been taking to social media to get people's suggestions and requests on what they want to read about as I continue to think of new ideas and topics each week. 

For this week, Jared Smith from Fox Sports Radio, Live on the Line and VSIN Live requested I dive into a discussion regarding the first inning in baseball. What makes it so unique compared to the other innings? What do the statistics say? What do baseball experts say? What about players/former players? 

With my handy dandy resources – which side bar, shout out to all of my friends and colleagues who have contributed thus far to these as well – I was able to collect some interesting data.

Let’s first start with Smith himself, because he is a pro at tracking data and has been passionate specifically about researching the first inning. “I am noticing a gradual reversal from the historical trend of the 1st inning being the highest scoring inning,” Smith said. “I think the biggest reason for this is the increase in average velocity from starting pitchers, and also the increase in usage of openers to begin the game. Starters also aren't pitching as deep into games, which puts more emphasis on the earlier innings.” 

One of the stats he specifically follows is NRFI or “no run first inning.” Entering play Wednesday, Smith shared the breakdown from the first three months and the percentage of games that have had no run first innings:

• April 50.6% (201-196)

• May 60.9% (251-161) *highest month Jared’s tracked in the last 3 years

• June 51.9% (121-112)

My MLB Network research department is the heart and soul of my work these days. They are quite literally the brains behind the shows I work on every day. I went to them to see what kind of data they could come up with. According to some of the 2024 info they collected, here is the breakdown of average runs per inning as of yesterday:

• 1st - 0.98

• 2nd - 0.94

• 3rd - 0.97

• 4th - 0.95

• 5th - 1.01 (Starters beginning to fatigue?)

• 6th - 1.00

• 7th - 0.98

• 8th - 0.91

• 9th - 0.71 (Often times no bottom of the 9th)

The research department echoed the sentiment of Smith, saying they were actually surprised that the first inning average runs were competitive with the rest. Seemingly supporting the argument that we’re not seeing as many runs in the first as historically proven. 

The department did however share with me that even though it isn’t the highest run scoring inning, there were 305 1st inning homers entering Wednesday, the most of any inning. Now here is the big statistic that does in fact prove that taking early leads is critical: Teams that led after the first went on to win 69.4% of the time (320-141).

Right now, the top two first inning scoring teams are the Yankees, who have averaged 0.80 runs per game in the first, and the Diamondbacks with 0.75. The Phillies are a close third with 0.74…and we know that two of those three teams are dominating MLB this season.  

Finally, I reached out to a friend of mine who is a former MLB player and current MLB agent. “The first inning is the most important inning in baseball. It set the tone for the rest of the game,” he said. “Defensively, you want to make a statement in that first inning by retiring the first three batters right away. Psychologically it lets the other team know that they’re in for a tough game. Adversely, offensively if you can score runs in the first inning it’s extremely deflating to the other team starting the game out trailing from behind. It’s unique because the mental aspect of the first inning cannot be overstated. A shaky start can lead to a snowball effect, and early struggles compound throughout the game. A strong start can instill confidence and set a positive tone for both the individual players and the team as a whole.” 

The intangible perspective coupled with the data, as well as the consistent topic of conversation on how the MLB game continues to change, gives us something interesting to evaluate. I’m glad Smith brought this topic to my attention. It’s something I know I will now be following closer throughout this season and seasons to come.