Labar: Expecting the Unexpected for the 2024 MLB Postseason

By Abby Labar
Sportmoney Columnist

In every sport when the postseason comes around, we prepare for the end of season injuries, the upsets, the heartbreak and the surprises. As the MLB regular season dwindles down, we’re seeing late pushes and identifying teams that have climbed back up to the top hoping to ride into the playoffs on that high. It’s all about who’s hot and who’s not. Or is it? 

As somebody who has covered several Stanley Cup Playoffs, there’s a “the regular season doesn’t matter” mindset once we get to that time of year in the NHL season. Could we argue it’s the same for MLB? Look, this is my first time being a part of an MLB postseason, so I’ve been comparing, contrasting, watching and preparing for what to expect. 

Over the course of 162 games, we see teams go on runs, plateau and plummet over and over again. Then there is the first half vs. the second half where teams can look entirely different to the point where it feels like two different seasons in one. Organizational structure, trade deadline moves, injuries, pitch counts, rookies finding their rhythm, there are so many variables that affect the way the year has played out and why certain clubs are in the positions they are as we approach the final weeks. So should we expect anything more unexpected than usual this year?

A big topic of conversation over the last month has been how for most of the season this was projected to be the first year in a decade that no MLB team would finish with triple digit wins. Last year, three teams finished with 100 or more wins. To reach 100 or more wins, the Phillies would have to win 75% of their remaining games, Dodgers would have to win over 80%, and if the Yankees lose one more game, their chances of a 100-win season go out the door. 

Although it may feel different this year, and maybe some could argue it is, or that trends are pointing toward even more parity in years to come, it’s really not anything new when you dive into the numbers. Since the 1998-2000 Yankees, no team has won back-to-back World Series. That’s obviously still not happening this year with the Rangers out of sight. What are the reasons for the parity? That’s an entirely different topic of conversation that we could dive into from several different angles. 

As we take a look at the second half of the season and identify the hottest teams headed to the postseason, let’s break it down (these numbers are entering September 12th):

Best Second Half Records:

• Diamondbacks: 33-16

• Padres: 32-16

• Dodgers: 31-18

• Mets: 31-20

• Brewers: 28-20

• Cubs: 28-20

• Tigers: 28-21

As you can see, the top six records since the All-Star Game are National League teams – versus the AL that felt much stronger in the first half of the year. Matt Orso with MLB Network’s Research Department helped me look deeper into some numbers. He brought up that with roughly two weeks to go there are still 17 teams within four games of a playoff spot (this is entering Wednesday Sept. 11th). Nine are in the AL and eight are in the NL, which means there are 72 different potential scenarios for the World Series this year. Buckle up y’all. 

A.L. Wild Card Standings (GB)

• Baltimore Orioles:  +4.5

• Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (remember when the Royals only won 56 games a year ago?)

• Minnesota Twins —

• Detroit Tigers: 3.5

• Boston Red Sox: 4.5

• Seattle Mariners: 4.5

N.L. Wild Card Standings (GB)

• Arizona D-Backs: +2.0

• San Diego Padres:  +1.5

• New York Mets  –

• Atlanta Braves: 1.0

• Chicago Cubs: 5.0

Toughest Remaining Schedules

• New York Mets (1st)

• Milwaukee Brewers (4th) 

• Philadelphia Phillies (6th)

• Baltimore Orioles (7th)

• Arizona Diamondbacks (10th)

Now look, we can talk numbers all day, look at recent trends and history as we prepare for the upcoming playoffs, but this column is all about stating the facts to prepare you for the unexpected excitement of the postseason. So as we dive into the intangibles, we could really see some things that we’ve never seen before. 

All eyes have been on Shohei Ohtani potentially becoming the first player to reach the 50-50 club (50 home runs and 50 stolen bases). But need I remind you that after the excitement of that milestone passes, we’re getting another Ohtani first? He’s finally going to make his postseason debut. To think one of the greatest players we’ve ever seen has yet to play on the playoff stage.

In fact, here are a few notable players that could also finish the regular season with record-setting years and potentially play in their first Fall Classic. Imagine the momentum and the next level play we would get to witness from these guys if any of them make it there?

• Aaron Judge: Broke the 50 homer milestone for the second time in three years and has 16 games left to try to break his own AL Home Run Record (62 in a season)

• Jose Ramirez: Recently broke his career-high in stolen bases 

• Manny Machado: Just broke the Padres franchise record for most home runs all time

• Bobby Witt Jr.: First player in NL/AL history to collect 20 homers and 20 steals in each of his first three seasons

Then there are the skippers. They’ve worked hard too, right? Pat Murphy will look to do something no Brewers manager has ever done, which is win the World Series. 

And sure this one is a stretch, but you literally NEVER know what can happen. Will we witness two potential pitching triple crown winners matchup in the World Series in Tarik Skubal and Chris Sale? These two have been incredible to watch this year, leading leagues in wins, ERA and strikeouts. 

The storylines are endless. We’re never going to have all the accurate predictions and we never can truly know what the postseason will bring, but that’s what makes baseball a beautiful game. There is so much more in store for us as September wraps up and we head into October. So hopefully this educated you a little bit, gave you something to really look forward to as well as some solid topics for healthy heated discussions over the next few weeks as the arguments begin with your baseball friends.