Labar: Breaking Down Next Week's NBA Cup Quarterfinals

By Abby Labar
Sportmoney Columnist

We’re in the midst of the sequel to the NBA’s in-season tournament, except this version is called the “Emirates NBA Cup” … it was only a matter of time before we stamped a title sponsor on that one of course. 

As somebody who worked and traveled with a hockey team for an 82-game season, I’ll be the first to attest that at a certain point in the year it can feel like Groundhog Day for the staff, players and fans. So incorporating this in-season tournament is something that I thought was a really great idea by the NBA. It starts far enough into the season that teams have created an identity, but we’re not quite close enough to the halfway point to start talking about postseason contenders. 

So what normally might feel like a lull in a long season has created some new interest and something to play for, giving players and fans an incentive to keep the momentum going. This year especially is a great example of why the NBA Cup has created excitement among the league, as teams advanced to the knockout round that we didn’t necessarily expect. So ahead of the quarterfinals that start on Tuesday, we’re breaking down a few key stats and storylines to watch.

No. 4 Orlando Magic at No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks

Over the past 10 matchups between these two teams, the Magic have the Bucks’ number, winning eight of those meetings dating back to 2021. Orlando also had a magical little +45 point differential through group play, the most out of any 3-1 team in the East (and why they earned the wild card). Now here is where things get interesting with this matchup: The Magic have a bottom-10 offense (averaging 107.9 points per game) but a top-10 defense (most blocks in the league), while the Bucks present a solid offense (averaging 113.6 points per game) and a bottom-10 defense. 

Milwaukee is currently the favorite, with this matchup presenting a five-point spread at most sportsbooks. Home court advantage plays into effect for the Bucks, who are currently the hotter team (winning 9 of their past 10). However, pick your poison with this matchup.

No. 4 Dallas Mavericks at No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder

OKC currently possesses the best record out West, but personnel can factor into this one. Without Chet Holmgren, there is concern over whether or not this OKC team, despite being one of the best defenses in the league, will have what it takes to contain a really talented Mavericks offense. The Mavericks beat the Thunder just a month ago in Oklahoma City, and that was without Luka Doncic. But the Thunder also get back a weapon they didn’t have during that meeting with the return of Isaiah Hartenstein. Keep your eyes on the paint: One of the big storylines is that the Thunder allow the fewest paint points in the league while the Mavericks are one of the highest-scoring teams in the paint right now. 

A five-point spread has OKC as the favorite. Keep in mind the intangibles of this one. OKC could be seeking revenge following the loss in the most recent meeting and in the last playoff matchup, an upset by the Mavericks to eliminate the Thunder in the Western Conference semifinals.

No. 3 Atlanta Hawks at No. 2 New York Knicks

This is a fun one because we’re talking about an emotional rivalry between two of the hottest teams right now. The Knicks and the Hawks sit back to back in the standings when it comes to points per game. New York is averaging 118 with Atlanta putting up 116.6 per game. Keep an eye on the perimeter game in this one: A key matchup stat is that the Knicks are currently one of the best three-point shooting teams right now with the second-best percentage from behind the arc, while the Hawks are one of the worst teams in defending three point teams. Trae Young has turned heads this season while leading the NBA in assists per game, and the key for Atlanta will be how he is able to exploit a bottom-tier Knicks defense. On the flip side, Jalen Brunson continues to lead a Knicks offense that’s currently one of the best, and Brunson is among the top-10 in the league in scoring. 

I’m not surprised the Knicks are favored on an 8.5-point spread. When there is a game that actually matters inside Madison Square Garden, the atmosphere elevates what’s at stake and New York has a heck of a home court advantage. 

No. 3 Golden State Warriors at No. 2 Houston Rockets

After a dramatic OT meeting last month, these two teams played last night to hash out any pent-up animosity and get a good feel for where the other is at before it really counts next week in the quarterfinals. That could be a big factor as to which way this game goes. They each have fresh film to break down and will be familiar with their opponent’s current trends and tendencies. Oh the drama…

The Warriors have the Rockets’ number: Last night’s win — without Steph Curry and Draymond Green — was the 15th (!) in a row for Golden State over Houston. Defense is the strong-suit for Houston, but their offense is lackluster. While the Warriors are slightly more balanced with a top-five defense (2nd-most defensive rebounds) and the ability to drain 3s left and right with the 3rd-most three-pointers made in the league. The X factor for this one could very much be the health of the Warriors. Draymond Green and Steph Curry were both ruled out of last night’s game. Will they be back just six days later?