Labar: NFL Divisional Round Betting Trends

By Abby Labar
Sportmoney Columnist

It has begun: The phone calls and texts from friends who rarely EVER bet during the regular season asking me who and what they should put their money on this weekend. Don’t you just love the NFL postseason? As I am sure several of you are getting these same calls and texts, in an effort to help you, your family, and these same friends, I figured what a great time to whip up a one-sheeter for us all to utilize and share with others. Here are key trends, lines and notes for all four games:

Houston Texans (+8.5) +375 at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) -500 
Total: 41.5

Head to Head Trends: The Chiefs have won four straight meetings dating back to 2020. We haven’t seen a total this low for these two teams since 2021. The past six totals all hit the over with one push, three of those totals were greater than 50 points. In two of the past three meetings, KC covered the spread. 

Key Notes:

• Kansas City has been pulling off close wins all season – they are 11-0 in one score games

• Houston’s defense has been much more productive than its offense: 6th in the league in total defense, allowing 315 yards per game, and ranking 2nd in the league in interceptions

• The Texans are 8-2 ATS in past 10 games while Chiefs are 3-7 ATS

• Houston averaged 21.9 points per game in the regular season while KC averaged 22.6 (and KC’s defense allowed the 4th-lowest points per game at 19.2)

Key Players for Prop Bets:

• Travis Kelce: Patrick Mahomes’s favorite target this season, Kelce caught 97 passes in 16 games for over 800 yards, averaging 8.5 yards per game

• Joe Mixon: with CJ Stroud's inconsistency in the pass game, the offense has leaned on the rushing attack. Mixon averaged over four carries per game across his 14 games in the regular season, and he exceeded 100 yards on the ground in 8 of those 14 games

Abby’s Picks:

• Kareem Hunt Anytime TD +200 

• Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Over 57.5 -114

Washington Commanders (+9.5) +385 at Detroit Lions (-9.5) -500 
Total 55.5

Head to Head Trends: Detroit has won 4 of the past 5 meetings over the past decade. The last two games have gone over, but the two teams have not seen a total this high in the past nine meetings (the highest total they’ve seen is 50 points back in 2016). Detroit covered the spread in 2022, which was the last time these two teams met. The two meetings prior were split with a push and Washington covering. 

Key Notes:

• Washington had the 3rd-worst rush defense in the league in the regular season

• Detroit had the 3rd-worst passing defense in the league in the regular season

• Two efficient offenses explain the high total, as both teams picked up points on 50% or more of their drives in the regular season – good for No. 1 and No. 2 in the league

• The Lions’ offense is averaging over 400 total yards per game, good for 2nd in the league, while the Commanders’ offense averages 369.6 yards per game

• Detroit leads the league in points per game with 33.2, while Washington averages 28.5 points per game

• Detroit is 4-1 ATS in the past 5 games, while Washington is 5-0 

Key Players for Prop Bets:

• Jared Goff: He’s thrown for over 300 yards in six games, averaging 272.3 passing yards per game

• Amon Ra-St. Brown: Goff’s favorite target, he averages 11 yards per reception, and in 8 of past 10 games has gone over 60 yards per game (with two games exceeding 100 yards)

• Jayden Daniels: The rookie QB was not only solid in the pass game with a 69% completion percentage but is also the top rusher for Washington, averaging 6 yards per carry

• Terry McLaurin: The top target for Jayden Daniels in the pass game, averaging 13.4 yards per catch and 64.5 yards per game

Abby’s Picks:

• Most Receiving Yards of the Game: Amon Ra-St. Brown +195

• David Montgomery 2+ Touchdowns +340

Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) +220 at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) -270 
Total 44.5

Head to Head Trends: The Eagles have won 4 of the past 5, with the Rams lone win coming in 2020. All four of those Eagles wins came on the road in LA, while the Rams win was in Philadelphia. The total is lower compared to when these teams met over the past several years: Only twice in the past 8 meetings have these two teams gone under the current 44.5 point total. Philly has covered the spread in the last two games while the Rams covered in their 2020 win. 

Key Notes:

• The Rams have allowed 2nd-fewest points in the last five games and have allowed less than 15 points in 5 of their last 7 games (this stretch began after giving up 37 to the Eagles in week 12)

• The Eagles have the best pass defense in the league, allowing just 174.2 yards per game in addition to allowing a league-low total offensive yards per game (they’re the only team in the league to hold their opponents to less than 300 yards a game)

• Philly has forced at least one turnover in 11 of their last 12 games

• First quarters have not been the strongest for both teams, with the Rams only averaging 1.8 points in first quarters while the Eagles averaged 3.6 first quarter points during the regular season. 

• Both teams are 4-1 ATS over their past 5 games. 

Key Players for Prop Bets:

• Saquon Barkley: In the regular season matchup between the two, Barkley ran all over Philly. He finished the game with two touchdowns and over 250 total yards. He averages 125.3 yards per game on the ground and 17.4 yards per game through the air. 

• Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua: Both Kupp and Nacua had good games vs. Eagles corners during the regular season meeting. They’ve both been targeted over 100 times in the regular season. Kupp averages 10.6 yards per reception while Nacua averages 12.5. I except a high volume of play from them once again in this matchup.

Abby’s Picks:

• Saquon Barkley Rushing + Receiving Yards Over 127.5 -114

• Anytime TD Scorer Kyren Williams -110

Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) -118 at Buffalo Bills (+1.5) +100 
Total 51.5

Head to Head Trends: The past four meetings have all gone under, with the highest total set at 52 points and the lowest total at 44 points. In the last 3 meetings, each team has covered the spread once while the other was a 3-point game ending in a push. 

Key Notes:

• The Bills defense was depleted in the meeting between these two teams all the way back in Week 4

• Baltimore had the top run defense in the league during the regular season, holding teams to just 77.2 yards per game (they allowed the 6th-fewest rushing yards to QBs)

• The Ravens had the 2nd-most rush attempts and most rushing yards in the regular season, while the Bills were 12th in rushing yards allowed (Baltimore averaged 187.6 yards per gam)

• The Bills and Ravens averaged the 2nd and 3rd most points per game in the regular season, with 30.9 and 30.5, respectively

• Baltimore is 5-0 ATS over its past 5, and Buffalo is 3-2

Key Players for Prop Bets:

• Derrick Henry: He has been a thorn in the side of Buffalo’s defense, rushing for 199 yards in the first go round (Henry averaged 113 yards per game this season and 5.9 yards per carry)

• James Cook: He posted a 1,000-yard season and leads the Bills in TDs, averaging 63.1 yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry (Cook has an opportunity to exploit a weaker Ravens linebacker corps)

• Mark Andrews: Secured the second most TDs on the team behind Henry, and was Jackson’s 3rd-favorite receiving target with the second most receptions

Abby’s Picks:

• Derrick Henry Rush Attempts Over 19.5 -113

• Dalton Kincaid Total Receptions Over 3.5 +108