Labar: Breaking Down the NFL Wild Card QB Matchups

By Abby Labar
Sportmoney Columnist

Scream it from the rooftops: The NFL postseason is here! Wild Card weekend is one of the best. Fans still full of hope that their team will not disappoint them, the drama of the upsets, rookie appearances and the stars that emerge. I’ll keep this intro short and sweet so we can dive into the nitty gritty, but in preparation for an exciting weekend ahead, please enjoy this breakdown of all the QBs we (should) see take the field this weekend.

AFC WILD CARD

No. 7 Denver Broncos @ No. 2 Buffalo Bills

• Bo Nix: 3,775 YDs, 66.3 CMP%, 222.1 YDs/GM

  There is no better way for a rookie quarterback to prove his worth than in a win-or-go-home situation. Now I get it, the Chiefs weren’t playing for anything and held out the bulk of their starters, but Nix still got the job done. It’s a scenario that a lot of quarterbacks couldn’t have done in similar circumstances. There was a lot on the line for a Broncos squad that hasn’t seen the postseason in a decade. 

  As we look ahead to the Bills, Nix can roll right in with some confidence coming off of a record-setting outing and regular season. After finishing 6th among all NFL QBs in passing touchdowns with 29 on the season, the Rookie of the Year candidate has the potential to put together a successful first playoff outing, but will the weight of the pressure impact him? Everyone says “history shows this and that for rookie QBs,” but Bo has nixed (I had to) the criticism all season by defying the odds. A healthy team provides ample weapons and familiarity for a Denver offense that scored at least 24 points in their past seven games of the season. Looking across the way at the Bills’ defense, they know what they’re doing. They are the 4th best in the league in allowing passing TDs but sit much farther down (outside of the top 10) in passing yards per game and total passing yards. 

• Josh Allen: 3,731 YDs, 63.6 CMP%, 219.5 YDs/GM

  A healthy Bills team is a scary Bills team. It’s easy to point to Josh Allen, the MVP frontrunner right now, and say he’s unstoppable. And a big reason why is the fact that the guys protecting him have been unstoppable. With one of the best offensive lines in the NFL this season, Allen goes into the postseason having strung together a year full of incredible moments with confidence at an all-time high being surrounded by the weapons he has. Can the Broncos break this Bills offense? Patrick Surtain II has been a weapon for a Broncos’ defense that is riding into the postseason coming off of a shutout. Denver has the 3rd-best passing yards per attempt allowed (6.8) as well as the 2nd-best yards per carry allowed, limiting teams to just 3.9 yards per rush. 

No. 6 Pittsburgh Steelers @ No. 3 Baltimore Ravens

• Russell Wilson: 2,482 YDs, 63.7 CMP%, 225.6 YDs/GM

• Justin Fields: 1,106 YDs, 65.8 CMP%, 110.6 YDs/GM

  Since Mike Tomlin came out to address the calls for Justin Fields to start under center and didn’t knock the idea, we’re going to cover both here. The latest is that Tomlin said he might utilize both depending on the game situation to do whatever it takes to win — and they will need that against the Ravens. 

  As an NC State Wolfpack alum, I do in fact claim Russell Wilson as my own (despite his Badger background), so I’m always looking at a glass half full with our boy. In the past couple of years however, it’s been tough to drink his kool aid. For the positives, he does have the postseason experience. A 9-7 playoff record, despite his last appearance being in 2021, is a supportive resume for his case. Familiarity with the playoff pressure and also familiarity with a Ravens defense that he has seen twice this season should help. The first meeting he had a 67% completion rate, with over 200 yards in both games. This one could be more about trends than specific matchups. The Ravens defense to start the year was a weak spot, but now they’re firing on all cylinders as they roll into the playoffs. The Steelers are on an opposite trajectory, having had a good streak earlier in the season and now finishing the year on the losing end. 

  So is Justin Fields the answer? Outside of being utilized here and there in the run game, he hasn’t seen true game action as the signal caller since Week 6. While there is a lack of positive momentum for Pittsburgh headed into the postseason, it’s still momentum, so there could be uncertainty for Fields to take over the responsibility at QB in his first playoff appearance. Regardless, the game planning for the Ravens defense just got a little bit more complicated now that they have to prepare for both (keep in mind that this is a mind game from Tomlin for this reason). Despite the small sample size, Fields does have a way with his skillset and his legs that could make it challenging on the Ravens if the opportunity presents itself. 

• Lamar Jackson: 4,172 YDs, 66.7 CMP%, 245.4 YDs/GM

  The defending MVP is hungrier than ever for a Super Bowl, and in the way his teammates buy into his talent and leadership, they know the window of opportunity is wide open and they need to take advantage of it now. Jackson knows how to handle the pressure and can take advantage of a Steelers team that doesn’t have a productive quick-game defense. Watching Pittsburgh on tape you can see the flaws in how teams are able to rattle them when they can get the ball out fast, something that Lamar Jackson and Co. are good at in both the pass game and run game. I don’t even need to get into numbers with this force to be reckoned with. The Steelers will have their work cut out for them. It’s hard to find any weaknesses in a QB that is coming off of a season where he navigated a challenging schedule and some game-saving big moments. 

No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers @ No. 4 Houston Texans

• Justin Herbert: 3,870 YDs, 65.9 CMP%, 227.6 YDs/GM

  This might be more about the Texans’ defense than Justin Herbert. With just one playoff appearance in 2022, there has always been a high ceiling for Herbert. But his first test is going to be to exploit a Houston unit that doesn’t have a lot of holes. The linebacker position is probably one of the weaker spots for the Texans, giving Herbert a chance to focus on making plays down the middle of the field, especially with his success this season on play-action passes. He is riding into the playoffs with three straight wins where he exceeded over 250 passing yards — and in those three wins the Chargers’ offense posted a league-best 108 points scored. Herbert will need to protect the ball because Houston has a way with interceptions, the second most in the league. 

• C.J. Stroud: 3,727 YDs, 63.2 CMP%, 219.2 YDs/GM

  Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but this might be more about the Chargers defense than CJ Stroud. But seriously, these two QBs are talented with high ceilings, but this one is going to be decided more based on which defense shows up rather than who is the better or more productive QB. I had really high expectations, as did others, for CJ Stroud’s sophomore campaign. We will give him some grace without having the same playmakers around him that he had last year and the fact that it’s so early in his career still. He did, however, finish the year taking the 2nd-most sacks in the NFL and throwing 12 interceptions. The Chargers entered Week 18 with the No. 1 scoring defense, which will be quite a task for the Texans. There is a lot to like for LA right now in how they’ve been able to slow offenses, especially down the stretch. 

NFC WILD CARD

No. 7 Green Bay Packers @ No 2. Philadelphia Eagles

• Jordan Love: 3,389 YDs, 63.1 CMP%, 225.9 YDs/GM

  The last thing the Packers want when preparing to face this powerhouse is a sub-100% QB at the helm. Unfortunately that seems to be what they might get per reports from practice and ESPNs Adam Schefter this week. Taken out of the regular season finale, Love has been navigating an elbow injury that could hurt his production. Coach Matt LaFleur, however, has utilized the run game more in his offense than Love’s arm in the second half of the season. Love finished the year on a streak of eight games with a rushing TD, with a bulk of those coming in the red zone. There has been a decline in the pass game for the Packers with a lot of dropped balls and missed opportunities downfield. The Eagles are second in the league in total passing yards allowed and first when it comes to yards per attempt, holding teams to just six yards per attempt. 

• Jalen Hurts: 2,903 YDs, 68.7 CMP%, 193.5 YDs/GM

  Battle of the injured QBs? Nobody likes that. Good news is the latest from the Eagles seems to have all signs pointing to Hurts getting through concussion protocol successfully and starting for Philly in this matchup with his return to practice on Wednesday. The Packers are without Jaire Alexander, a weapon in defending the pass game, which could be a big factor in trying to slow down the Eagles offense. With Saquon Barkley a target for Green Bay's defense, opportunities could open up in the pass game for Hurts. Game planning against a QB like Jalen, who can “hurt” (sorry, I had to do it again) you both with his legs as well as his accuracy throwing the ball downfield, is a dangerous situation for any defense — hence why the Eagles are as good as they are right now.  

No. 6 Washington Commanders @ No. 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Jayden Daniels: 3,568 YDs, 69 CMP%, 209.9 YDs/GM

  What a fun story for the Commanders this season. The No. 2 overall pick has not disappointed, and the growth we’ve seen as he has gotten more comfortable throughout the season is a reason that Washington is back in the postseason. The beautiful connection between Daniels and Terry McLaurin has been fun to witness and will be a threat come Wild Card weekend. Daniels doesn’t have many other weapons available in the pass game right now, but he can use his legs if the Bucs find a way to slow down the one-two punch. Good news for Daniels and McLaurin is that Tampa Bay has struggled to defend the middle of the field, posing the 3rd-worst passing defense in the league; they've allowed almost 4,500 yards through the air in the regular season. 

• Baker Mayfield: 4,500 YDs, 71.4 CMP%, 264.7 YDs/GM

  I’ve personally enjoyed watching Baker Mayfield find success the past couple of seasons after a rocky start to a career that began with high expectations. Mayfield has grown to become a more comfortable and confident QB, giving him the poise to make plays under pressure (he has the league's 5th-best completion percentage). While he does have the most interceptions in the NFL, he is throwing the ball a lot. He had the 3rd-most passing yards in the regular season, and of the top-5 QBs, four of them, including Mayfield, had double-digit interceptions thrown. Overall however, the Bucs have a pretty complete offense that will make it challenging on the Commanders, who sit in the bottom-5 of the league in both passing and rushing defense. 

No. 5 Minnesota Vikings @ No. 4 Los Angeles Rams

• Sam Darnold: 4,319 YDs, 66.2 CMP%, 254.1 YDs/GM

  Well well well, what do we have here? Good for Sam Darnold for helping this Vikings group emerge as one of the biggest surprise teams of the year. But it all comes down to the big moments, and Sam Darnold’s track record doesn’t necessarily support his ability to succeed when the pressure is on. One area in particular that Darnold can lean on is his connection with T.J. Hockenson and his ability to utilize the tight end, especially considering how the Rams defense has struggled against tight ends this season. Darnold sits in the top 10 among QBs in the league in several passing categories, including yards per game, yards per attempt, and total yards. 

• Matthew Stafford: 3,762 YDs, 65.8 CMP%, 235.1 YDs/GM

  If anybody knows how to beat Sean McVay it’s Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores. The Vikings have allowed the second-lowest number of yards on the ground all season and have tallied the most interceptions in the league with 24 (the team with the second most is the Texans with 19). Good news is Stafford has done a decent job at protecting the football this season with eight interceptions on the year. While the Vikings can find a way to get a turnover here or there, their numbers when it comes to their pass defense aren’t as solid as their run defense. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp know how to win a Super Bowl together. It will be a matter of consistency for this QB and if they can find the holes in a really solid Minnesota defense. 

***Stats are passing stats per ESPN Statistics***