Our 10 Bets to Watch + Where Bettors Have NBA and Early CFB Money

We also rank the top-10 teams in the NFL after Week 10

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Pistons are showing last year wasn’t a fluke

2. Bets to Watch: Brunson averages 27.2 points on 20.8 field goal attempts

3. Top 10: The best teams in the NFL through 10 weeks

4. Public Money: Ranked CFB favorites with big spreads that aren’t scaring bettors

5. Overtime: The starting QB who could be coming back from an injury early

1. Leading Off

The Pistons keep winning, and it's no accident. After last night's overtime victory against Washington, Detroit is up to seven straight wins and a 9-2 record, good for the best start in the East and second only to Oklahoma City overall. This doesn’t look like a fluke.

Last season, the Pistons pulled off one of the greatest turnarounds in basketball history: They went from 14-68 (the NBA’s worst record) in 2023-24 to 44-38 and the sixth seed in the playoffs. They more than tripled their win total. Only one other team in NBA history has done that. It was a good story, maybe the best in the league last year, but were the Pistons built to last?

Through 11 games, Detroit has its (early) answer. The defense ranks in the top three in the league. Cade Cunningham is putting up superstar numbers. Jalen Duren is averaging a career high with 12.0 rebounds. Ausur Thompson is scoring 13.9 points per game, also the best of his career. The young core that struggled through the worst season in franchise history two years ago now knows how to win.

The skeptics wanted proof that last year wasn't a one-hit wonder. The Pistons are giving it to them. This franchise went from laughingstock to playoff team to legitimate contender in just two seasons. That kind of sustained success is rare in any sport. Detroit isn't just good now, they're built to stay that way.

— Abe Rakov

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2. Bets to Watch

Maxey Notched Season-High 14 Assists in Last Matchup vs. Celtics

By Jack Dougherty

76ers G Tyrese Maxey over 6.5 assists (-154 at FanDuel)
After the Celtics gave up 40 points to Maxey in the season opener, coach Joe Mazzula made a concerted effort to force…

3. Top 10

Rams No. 1, Super Bowl Favorite No. 9 in Our NFL Rankings through Week 10

The Rams just hung 42 points on the 49ers. The Patriots have rattled off seven straight wins. Jonathan Taylor ran for 244 yards in Germany. After 10 weeks, the parity in the NFL is real and all 10 of these teams could be Super Bowl contenders:

1. Los Angeles Rams (7-2): Matthew Stafford is playing like he's 27, not 37. The veteran quarterback has thrown 4+ touchdowns in three straight games. He's tossed 25 touchdowns against just two picks this season. That's MVP-level stuff. The Rams have won four in a row, including a 42-26 beatdown of the 49ers on Sunday. Their defense is swarming, their offense is humming, and they look like the most complete team in football.

2. Indianapolis Colts (8-2): Jonathan Taylor just reminded everyone why he's one of the NFL’s best. The running back exploded for 244 yards and three scores in Berlin, carrying the Colts past Atlanta in overtime. Taylor now has over 1,100 rushing yards and can take over games by himself. At 8-2, the Colts lead the AFC South by three wins and have the kind of game-changer who can take over playoff games.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (7-2): The defending champs are rounding into form after an early-season blip. They added linebacker Jaelan Phillips at the trade deadline and defensive lineman Brandon Graham unretired to bolster a deeper-than-expected roster. The Eagles beat the Packers in a 10-7 slugfest last night and have the Lions on Sunday Night Football this week to bolster their case.

4. Seattle Seahawks (7-2): Nobody wants to play Seattle right now. The Seahawks have won four straight games, scoring over 38+ points in the past two. Quarterback Sam Darnold has transformed the offense in his first season. The defense is nasty too, led by pass rushers Leonard Williams and DeMarcus Lawrence. Coach Mike Macdonald's squad is playing bully ball on both sides.

5. New England Patriots (8-2): The Patriots have won seven straight games, and this team isn't looking like a fluke anymore. Quarterback Drake Maye is playing at an MVP-level in his second year. Mike Vrabel is outcoaching opponents week after week. They beat Tampa Bay on the road Sunday, 28-23, proving they can win anywhere. The schedule has been soft overall, but you can only beat who's in front of you. New England should be 11-2 when they face Buffalo on Dec. 14.

6. Denver Broncos (8-2): The Broncos are also winners of seven straight games despite quarterback Bo Nix having some rough outings. Their defense is the story. Denver sacked Raiders quarterback Geno Smith six times Thursday night in a 10-7 win. That makes it 31 sacks in the last six games. The defense is carrying this team, and that's a formula that works late in the season.

7. Detroit Lions (6-3): Detroit is hard to pin down. The Lions bounced back from their upset loss to Minnesota by destroying Washington. Running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for over 200 rushing yards and Gibbs had three total touchdowns. Quarterback Jared Goff threw for 320 yards and three scores of his own. When Detroit's offense clicks like that, they're dangerous. Let’s see if they can stay with the Eagles this week.

8. Buffalo Bills (6-3): The Bills took a gut-punch loss to Miami on Sunday, falling 30-13 to a team they had beaten seven straight times and in 14 of 15 games. Quarterback Josh Allen hasn’t been as lights-out as we’re used to, just 16th in quarterback rating. But Buffalo still has the talent to make noise. They have wins over a full-strength Ravens team and the Chiefs, which will help them come playoff seeding time.

9. Kansas City Chiefs (5-4): The Super Bowl favorites (+550) are our ninth-ranked team. That’s the parity the NFL has this year. The Chiefs aren't playing their best football, but they're still winning more than they’re losing. Patrick Mahomes and company know how to flip the switch in January. They've been here before. Kansas City is working through some issues, but they're too talented and too experienced to count out.

10. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3): The Chargers handled their business Sunday night, beating Pittsburgh 25-10. Justin Herbert didn’t make mistakes and the defense dominated Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers. Los Angeles held Pittsburgh to just 2-of-11 on third down. The Chargers have dealt with injuries all year but keep finding ways to win. That's the mark of a good team.

4. Public Money

Eight Ranked Double-Digit College Football Favorites Bettors are Backing Early and Big

NBA

• Raptors (-10.5, -106) vs. Nets (+10.5, -114): 78% of the money and 63% of the bets are with Toronto

  • TOR: 5-5, BKN: 3-7

• Celtics (+1.5, -110) vs. 76ers (-1.5, -110): 86% of the money and 70% of the bets are with Philadelphia

  • BOS: 4-6-1, PHI: 6-1-3

• Pacers (-2.5, -110) vs. Jazz (+2.5, -110): 71% of the money and 55% of the bets are with Indiana

  • IND: 5-5, UTA: 6-4

• Nuggets (-8.5, -110) vs. Kings (+8.5, -110): 65% of the money and 56% of the bets are with Denver

Early CFB Odds

• Minnesota (+24.5, -105) vs. No. 9 Oregon (-24.5, -115): 90% of the money and 70% of the bets are with Oregon

  • MIN: 2-7, ORE: 5-4

• No. 21 Michigan (-11.5, -110) vs. Northwestern (+11.5, -110): 70% of the money and 67% of the bets are with Michigan

  • UM: 3-6, NU: 6-3

• South Carolina (+18.5, -105) vs. No. 3 Texas A&M (-18.5, -115): 79% of the money and 62% of the bets are with Texas A&M

  • USC: 4-5, A&M: 5-4

• UCF (+23.5, -105) vs. No. 8 Texas Tech (-23.5, -115): 89% of the money and 82% of the bets are with Texas Tech

  • UCF: 4-5, TTU: 9-1

• No. 17 Georgia Tech (-16.5, -115) vs. Boston College (+16.5, -105): 84% of the money and 82% of the bets are with Georgia Tech

  • GT: 6-3, BC: 4-6

• Florida (+15.5, -110) vs. No. 6 Ole Miss (-15.5, -110): 85% of the money and 82% of the bets are with Ole Miss

  • UF: 3-6, MISS: 6-4

• Purdue (+16.5, -104) vs. No. 23 Washington (-16.5, -118): 89% of the money and 61% of the bets are with Washington

  • PU: 5-5, WAS: 4-5

• UCLA (+32.5, -110) vs. No. 1 Ohio State (-32.5, -110): 77% of the money and 62% of the bets are with Ohio State

  • UCLA: 3-6, OSU: 7-2

5. Overtime

In the News 

• The Giants fired coach Brian Daboll and replaced him with assistant head coach and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka, a former Northwestern quarterback. Daboll was 20-40-1 over three-and-a-half seasons in New York, and had won just five of his past 27 games in charge. In other coaching news, Commanders coach Dan Quinn is taking over defensive coordinator duties from Joe Whitt, who remains on staff.

• Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow was back at practice on Monday, in limited capacity but earlier than anticipated. Burrow, who is working through turf toe, has targeted Cincinnati’s Thanksgiving Day matchup against Baltimore for his possible return.

• Houston jumped Purdue for the No. 1 spot in the AP Top 25 men’s college basketball poll despite having half as many first-place votes. Arizona (up eight to 5th), Alabama (up seven to 8th) and North Carolina (up seven to 18th) were the biggest climbers.

• Twenty of the 48 spots in the 2026 World Cup are still up for grabs, including 15 of the 16 from Europe (England is the only country to punch its ticket), as we enter another qualification week. Some of the competitions to reach the World Cup won’t finish until after the December 5th draw.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: Maple Leafs vs. Bruins on TNT

• 8pm: Celtics vs. 76ers on NBC (or No. 9 Kentucky vs. No. 12 Louisville [NCAAM] on ESPN)

• 8:30pm: No. 11 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 Illinois [NCAAM] on FS1

• 9:30pm: Ducks vs. Avalanche on TNT

• 10pm: No. 23 Creighton vs. No. 19 Gonzaga [NCAAM] on ESPN

• 11pm: Nuggets vs. Kings on NBC