Lions (-3.5) Visit 49ers for Final Monday Night Football Game of Regular Season

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Saquon Barkley joined the 2,000-yard club Sunday

• NFL: Lions vs. 49ers on MNF could see a lot of offense

• NBA: Joel Embiid has feasted on Deandre Ayton over the years

• NBA: The Knicks have the NBA’s No. 3 net rating in December

• College Football: Iowa takes on Missouri in the day’s lone bowl game

• Overtime: Did the Giants hurt themselves by ending their 10-game losing streak Sunday?

With 167 yards in the Eagles’ dominant win over the Cowboys, Saquon Barkley became the NFL’s ninth 2,000-yard rusher. Barkley can break Eric Dickerson’s all-time single-season record with 101 yards Sunday against the Giants — if he plays at all (the Eagles have clinched the No. 2 seed).

Here’s where Barkley currently places in NFL history:

1. Eric Dickerson - 2,105 (1984)

2. Adrian Peterson - 2,097 (2012)

3. Jamal Lewis - 2,066 (2003)

4. Barry Sanders - 2,053 (1997)

5. Derrick Henry - 2,027 (2020)

6. Terrell Davis - 2,008 (1998)

7. Chris Johnson - 2,006 (2009)

8. Saquon Barkley - 2,005 (2024)

9. O.J. Simpson - 2,003 (1973)

10. Earl Campbell - 1,934 (1980)

In today’s newsletter, Chris covers Monday Night Football, Craig and Jack have the NBA slate, and Craig adds some college football analysis.

— Patrick Dorsey

Lions (-3.5) Don’t Need to Beat 49ers for Chance at No. 1 Seed — Will They Anyway?

By Chris Farley

Lions -3.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

Analysts will tell us that the Lions don't need to win this game — the No. 1 seed comes down to Minnesota vs. Detroit next week — and therefore it's probably crazy to take their spread. We couldn't disagree more. The 49ers aren't the same team this year, by now we know this, but they're still the outfit that booted the Lions out of the NFC Championship Game last season, even after Detroit took a commanding 24-7 lead at halftime. Dan Campbell and his roster might just care about getting revenge. On the other side, the Niners have only covered ATS once in their past seven games and their injured defense allows over 23 points per game.

Lions vs. 49ers over 50.5 (-105 at Bovada)

At this juncture of the season, the Niners don't have much to lose, and even though their defense is obviously more flawed this season, their offense still delivers on most Sundays. San Francisco is 8th in total yards (365.7) and 6th in yards per play (6.1), and Brock Purdy and others are playing for their futures. They would also surely love to spoil Detroit's energy before their big NFC battle for the No. 1 seed next week, and the Lions' defense is banged up, too, which has shown on the scoreboard (they've allowed 96 points in their past three contests). 

Jared Goff under 33.5 pass attempts (-130 at DraftKings)

While we expect a higher-scoring game and an offensive battle, that doesn't mean Jared Goff has to throw a zillion passes. If the 49ers' defense is flawed in any two areas, it's in their proclivity to allow big plays to opposing offenses (they're 22nd in opponent points per play) and they get picked apart by running backs. San Francisco allows 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game (31st) and a 65.13% touchdown conversion rate in the red zone to opposing offenses. Goff can rely on a safe, ground-and-pound approach to pummel the Niners' resistance and avoid injury before their big contest next weekend.

Lions vs. 49ers first quarter over 10 (+100 at BetOnline)

This starting total is all about the Lions, even though we suspect the 49ers will contribute, too. Firstly, Detroit and San Francisco are armed with two of the NFL's best play-callers, Ben Johnson and Kyle Shanahan. They should come out with an A+ scripted plan early. Detroit's offense hasn't been at its best in the first quarter (4.5 points per game this season), but when they come out with urgency (like last week at Chicago, where they scored 13), they're very hard to stop. And despite their late-game woes, the Niners average a healthy 5.1 points per game in the first quarter, too.

Joel Embiid Has Scored 33+ Points in Every Game Against Deandre Ayton

By Jack Dougherty

Nikola Jokic triple-double (+200 at DraftKings)

This prop is almost an auto-bet when Aaron Gordon is out of the lineup, especially at this price. In 10 games without Gordon on the court this season, Jokic averages 32.9 points, 13.5 rebounds and 10.6 assists. He’s recorded a triple-double in six of those 10 games. Jokic should be able to abuse a Jazz defense that ranks 28th in the NBA in points allowed per game (119.4) and opponent effective field-goal percentage (56.2 percent) and 25th in opponent assists per game (28.3). 

Michael Porter Jr. under 5.5 rebounds (+122 at FanDuel)

As good of a matchup as this is for Jokic, it’s not great for Porter in the rebounding department. The Jazz surrender the fewest rebounds per game to opposing small forwards (6.25) and the fewest total defensive rebounds per game (30.3). Utah can struggle to defend the offensive glass, but that’s not Porter’s strong suit. The Nuggets forward is averaging just 1.3 offensive rebounds per game in the month of December, and he’s gone under this line in four of his last five starts.

Evan Mobley over 17.5 points (+100 at DraftKings)

This is a surprisingly low number for Mobley, who’s been red-hot as a scorer. The Cavaliers forward has cleared this line in seven of his last eight full games, averaging 23.3 points per game in that span. This is also a juicy matchup against a Warriors team that struggles to defend the position. Golden State gives up the 4th-most points per game to opposing power forwards (24.2). In his lone matchup against the Dubs earlier this season, Mobley put up 23 points on 7-of-12 shooting and got to the free-throw line a season-high 10 times. 

Domantas Sabonis over 14.5 rebounds (+110 at DraftKings)

This is a huge number, but it’s certainly doable for the busiest rebounder in the NBA. Sabonis leads the league in rebound chances (23.2) and rebounds (13.5) per game this season, and he’s cleared this line in two of his last three starts. The Mavericks are vulnerable on the glass right now with no Luka Doncic and potentially no Dereck Lively II. With both players inactive Saturday, Dallas surrendered 16 rebounds to Deandre Ayton. The Mavericks rank 28th in the NBA in opponent offensive rebounds per game (12.0), and Sabonis ranks second in offensive rebound chances per game (8.5).

Joel Embiid over 28.5 points (-106 at FanDuel)

Speaking of Ayton, he’s a prime fade candidate in this matchup against Embiid and the 76ers. In eight career games against Ayton, Embiid averages 35.9 points and 12.0 free-throw attempts per game on 51.9% shooting from the field. He’s scored at least 33 points in all eight matchups against the Trail Blazers center. Embiid is starting to look more like his healthy self, as he dropped 32 points in a season-high 35 minutes of action last time out against the Jazz. 

Paul George under 16.5 points (+100 at FanDuel)

George takes a backseat in Philadelphia’s offense when Embiid and Tyrese Maxey are both full-go. In the last four games in which Embiid played at least 30 minutes, George averaged 10.5 points per game and went under this line in all four. The Sixers forward shot 3-of-24 from 3 over those four contests. This offense runs through Embiid and Maxey when healthy, and George hasn’t been efficient even when he does get a chance to run the show.

Knicks Are 3rd in Net Rating in December

By Craig Williams

Knicks under 121.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

The Knicks scored 136 points against the Wizards on Saturday, but they needed overtime to go over their team total. We’re not scared of the Wizards’ defense in this spot, but we are thinking about what improved defense will mean for the Knicks’ need to score so much. The Wizards aren’t going to shoot 51.5% from the field and 44.7% from 3-point range again, and we’re confident they won’t push the Knicks to overtime, resulting in a lower-scoring contest.

Knicks -11.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

The Wizards played the Knicks tough on Saturday, but we have a difficult time believing they can muster that type of performance in back-to-back contests. The Knicks have covered four of their past seven meetings against the Wizards, and we’re bullish on them doing so again, even on the road. Washington doesn’t protect its home court, entering with a 7-9 record against the spread as home underdogs. Finally, the Knicks hold the game’s 3rd-best net rating in December compared to the Wizards’ last-place mark.

Karl-Anthony Towns over 12.5 rebounds (-125 at ESPNBET)

Towns is averaging 14.4 rebounds in 11 December games, and is entering tonight’s contest with a career-best rebounding percentage (22.8%). He corralled 14 rebounds on Saturday in 44 minutes. We don’t think he’ll need that much time tonight. The Wizards enjoyed a good shooting performance their last time out, but they rank bottom-seven in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage in December.

Bulls -4.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

The Bulls have won and covered each of their past seven matchups with the Hornets, including their past three in Charlotte. The Hornets are 1-9 over their past 10 overall and have dropped seven straight. They’re 9-8 against the spread at home, but star guard LaMelo Ball is listed as doubtful tonight, as is productive second-year wing Brandon Miller. The Hornets’ offensive rating plummets when Ball is off the floor, falling from 112.9 to 103.8. The Bulls have not been world-beaters by any stretch, but they are 8-7-1 against the spread on the road.

Hornets under 110.5 (-105 ESPNBET)

We’re operating under the assumption that Ball will sit out tonight’s contest. And if he does, we’re even more bearish on the Hornets. The Hornets’ effective field goal percentage goes down and turnover rate goes up when Ball is off the floor. They’ve scored under 100 points in each of their past three contests sans Ball, including scoring 95 points against the Bulls on December 13. Finally, we wouldn’t say the Bulls have a good defense, but they’ve been stingier in December.

Miles Bridges over 2.5 3-pointers made (+100 at FanDuel)

This is a bet on the Hornets’ desperation more than it is on Bridges’ efficiency or effectiveness from range. The Hornets may very well be without their top two players in Ball and Miller, thrusting Bridges into the primary scoring role. Ball and Miller combine for 43.2 shots overall and 24 3-point attempts. Bridges obviously can’t usurp all of that vacated volume, but he’s likely in line for a busy day from the field and beyond the arc. It might get ugly, but we’re banking on him hoisting enough attempts to work his way to the over.

Iowa Has Limited Opponents to 14.3 PPG in Past 3 Games

By Craig Williams

Iowa vs. Missouri under 40.5 (-110 at bet365)

Iowa finished the season as one of the nation’s stingiest defensive teams, and is going into this contest on a particularly nice run, limiting opponents to 14.3 points per game over its past three. We’re expecting defense to play a big role in this matchup, in large part because Missouri last played on November 30, and because they’ll do so today without projected first-round wide receiver Luther Burden III. It’s not uncommon in sports for defense to trend ahead of offense, and we’re considering the long layoff for the Tigers going up against a team that prides itself in playing a fundamentally sound and defensively stout brand of football.

In the News 

• The Giants might have reason to regret their skid-snapping win vs. the Colts.

• FSU basketball coach Leonard Hamilton is being sued by former players over failed $250k NIL payments.

• Amen Thompson and Tyler Herro got into it late in Sunday’s Heat-Rockets game, leading to six ejections.

• The Lakers traded D’Angelo Russell back to the Nets.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 2:30pm: Iowa vs. No. 19 Missouri in the TransPerfect Music City Bowl on ESPN

• 2:45pm: Aston Villa vs. Brighton on Peacock

• 8:15pm: Lions vs. 49ers for MNF on ABC/ESPN

• 10pm: Mavericks vs. Kings on NBA TV

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