SGA Averages Over 35 Points in Past 6 Home Games + Top 10 Bets to Watch Today

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Women’s college basketball conference tournaments begin this week

• Top 10 Bets: Rockets injuries could keep matchup against Thunder under

• Game of the Day: A Florida face off between two of the hottest NHL teams

• Betting Trends: SGA averaged 35.2 points in past 6 home games

• Player to Watch: Cryer looks to bounce back from poor shooting against Jayhawks

• Overtime: Giants and Jets are reportedly trying to trade up for the 1st pick

The major women’s college basketball conference tournaments start this week, with the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC starting March 5, and the Big East on March 7. ESPN’s Bracketology currently has 13(!) of the 18 Big Ten teams in the tournament, and 10 from the SEC, 8 from the ACC, 7 from the Big 12, and just 2 from the Big East (behind the Ivy League’s 3). They have Texas as the current overall No. 1 seed even though the Longhorns will be the No. 2 seed in the SEC Tournament thanks to a coin flip in favor of South Carolina.

On FanDuel, UConn and South Carolina (+320) are the current favorites to win the national title, followed by Texas (+440), and UCLA, USC, and Notre Dame (+600).

In the newsletter, Jack has today’s top 10 bets to watch across the NBA, men’s college basketball and golf. We also give you a rundown of the Lightning vs. Panthers matchup, two betting trends for each of today’s seven NBA games, and a profile of No. 4 Houston’s L.J. Cryer’s potential bounce-back game against Kansas.

— Abe Rakov

Wells Shot 51.9% from Three in his Past 4 Games, Hawks Give Up 14.3 Threes per Game

By Jack Dougherty

Trail Blazers +3.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
The 76ers are coming off an upset win against the Jimmy Butler-less Warriors, but it took 44 points from Quentin Grimes to hold them off. This is still a bottom of the barrel NBA team, while there aren’t many teams playing better than the Trail Blazers right now. Portland has won four of its past five games and just took the Cavaliers to overtime as 11.5-point underdogs. The Blazers rank third in the NBA in net rating over their past five contests, while the Sixers rank 28th. This spread should be closer to a pick’em. 

Quentin Grimes under 17.5 points + assists (-104 at DraftKings)
Speaking of Grimes, this is a good spot to fade him coming off the best game of his NBA career. The Sixers guard scored 44 points last game because he got hot early and Tyrese Maxey and Paul George were struggling, so he didn’t stop shooting. Before that, Grimes scored a combined 12 points and dished out only one assist in his previous two games. The Trail Blazers have the best defensive rating in the NBA over their past five games, making this a great matchup to fade Grimes at an inflated number.

Desmond Bane over 32.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110 at DraftKings)
This should be a great chance for Bane to stuff the stat sheet in a matchup between the two fastest-paced teams in the NBA. With a whopping total of 253, this game should feature more possessions and a ton of open looks for the Grizzlies. Bane has cleared this line in five of his past eight games, and he’s been hot with 40 and 37 PRA in his past two starts. He should be able to keep it rolling against a Hawks team that can’t stop opposing shooting guards. 

Jaylen Wells over 1.5 threes (-154 at DraftKings)
The Hawks have been terrible at defending the three-point line all season, ranking 28th in opponent three-point shooting percentage (37.3%) and 26th in opponent made threes per game (14.3). They’ve been even worse lately, as three of their past four opponents have made at least 20 threes and shot better than 46% from deep. Wells is 14-27 (51.9%) from beyond the arc over his past four games, and he should get a ton of open looks in this matchup.

Thunder vs. Rockets under 228 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Houston’s injury report for this matchup is a sea of red. Fred VanVleet is still out, and Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Dillon Brooks, Tari Eason and Steven Adams are all questionable to suit up. Those injuries would be tough to overcome against anyone, let alone the team that ranks first in effective field-goal percentage allowed (51.0%) and second in points allowed per game (106.5). This line has a chance to crash if more players get ruled out before tip. 

Men’s College Basketball

Houston -9.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
This Kansas team is a mess right now, and Bill Self knows it. After the Jayhawks’ home loss to Texas Tech this past weekend, Self felt the need to release an official statement to the fans about the state of the program. There are some odd vibes surrounding this group. Kansas has lost five of its past seven road games, and the losses have come by an average of 15.4 points. It’s hard to imagine the Jayhawks turning it around against the best team in the Big 12.

Northwestern +3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Northwestern is riding a late-season surge into the Big Ten Tournament. The Wildcats have won three straight games by double digits, and they’ve held their opponents to a combined 37.1% shooting and 26.2% from three-point range in that span. UCLA is 1-5 this season when it’s had to travel east in Big Ten play. The Bruins’ lone win came against Indiana thanks to an uncharacteristic shooting night from three (45.0%), but that won’t be easy to replicate against Northwestern’s red-hot shooting defense. 

Northwestern vs. UCLA under 132.5 points (-112 at DraftKings)
We’re looking to double down on this matchup due to the style similarities between these two teams. Northwestern and UCLA rank 318th and 317th, respectively, in the country in adjusted tempo, so this should be a slog of a game with limited possessions on both sides. We already touched on Northwestern’s strong defensive showings of late, and UCLA’s 19th-ranked scoring defense should travel even though its shooting might not. 

Golf

Viktor Hovland to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (+5000 at DraftKings)
Hovland is still working to rediscover his old form. Although it’s been a quiet start to the 2025 season, he’s shown some positive signs by gaining strokes from off the tee and on approach in each of his past two starts. The ball-striking has looked great. The problem has been the short game, which is nothing new for Hovland. This could be the week he turns that around, as Hovland has gained strokes from putting in four straight starts at Bay Hill and from around the green in two of his past four. The six-time PGA Tour winner also finished runner-up here in 2022.

Paul Casey to win LIV Golf Hong Kong (+3300 at FanDuel)
Casey is a perfect fit for Hong Kong Golf Club because he’s deadly accurate from off the tee and great with his short irons. This is the shortest, tightest golf course on the LIV schedule, making it the best venue for Casey to grab a win. The Englishman lost in a playoff to Abraham Ancer here last season, and we like his chances to contend again at these odds.  

Two of NHL’s Hottest Teams Face Off in South Florida Tonight

Tampa Bay has won eight games in a row and is now just three points behind tonight’s opponent, Florida, and four behind Toronto for the top spot in the Atlantic. The Panthers are also in the middle of a nice run, having won eight of 10 games.

• Spread: Panthers -1.5 (+198), Lightning +1.5 (-250)

• Moneyline: Panthers -126, Lightning +105

• Total (5.5): Over -120, Under -102

Lightning (35-20-4, 14-13-2 Away) vs. Panthers (37-21-3, 19-10-2 Home)
7pm on ESPN+

Top 5 Insights

• The under hit in 6 of the past 8 Panthers games vs. top 10 scoring defenses

• Tampa Bay’s Brandon Hagel has notched at least 1 point in 8 straight games (1.8 average)

• Florida’s Gustav Forsling has 2+ shots on goal in 5 straight home games (3.2 average)

• The Panthers’ Aaron Ekblad has gone over 1.5 shots on goal in 10 of his past 11 games (2.5 average)

• Florida’s Carter Verhaeghe connected on at least 3 shots on goal in 10 of his past 12 home games (4.1 average)

Head to Head

• The teams faced off in a home-and-home in back-to-back days at the end of December, with each squad winning the road game by scoring four goals.

NBA: Camara’s Steals on the Road, Irving Limiting Turnovers

Warriors (32-28, 15-15 Away) vs. Hornets (14-45, 9-21 Home)

• Brandin Podziemski stayed under 2 turnovers in 11 of his past 13 road games (0.9 average)

• Josh Green collected at least 11 points + rebounds + assists in 11 of his past 12 home games (15.2 average)

Trail Blazers (27-33, 11-19 Away) vs. 76ers (21-38, 11-20 Home)

• Donovan Clingan has at least 1 assists in 5 straight road games (2.2 average)

• Toumani Camara grabbed at least 1 steal in 13 straight road games (2.1 average)

Wizards (11-48, 5-22 Away) vs. Heat (28-30, 14-11 Home)

• Davion Mitchell has dished out at least 2 first quarter assists in 5 straight home games (2.8 average)

• Khris Middleton has gone over 18.5 points + assists in 5 straight games vs. bottom 10 defenses for assists allowed (24.6 average)

Hawks (27-33, 14-17 Away) vs. Grizzlies (38-22, 22-8 Home)

• The over hit in 18 of the past 23 Hawks games vs. bottom 10 scoring defenses

• Jaren Jackson Jr. has 2+ blocks in 5 straight home games (2.4 average)

Rockets (37-23, 17-12 Away) vs. Thunder (48-11, 25-4 Home)

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 31+ points in 5 of his past 6 home games (35.2 average)

• Cason Wallace went over 1.5 steals + blocks in 17 of his past 19 home games (2.4 average)

Kings (31-28, 16-14 Away) vs. Mavericks (32-29, 19-12 Home)

• Keegan Murray made at least 2 three pointers in 5 straight games (3.0 average)

• Kyrie Irving stayed under 3 turnovers in 6 of his past 7 home games (1.6 average)

Pistons (34-27, 17-13 Away) vs. Jazz (15-44, 8-22 Home)

• Tim Hardaway Jr. dished out at least 2 assists in 10 straight road games (2.2 average)

• Keyonte George combined for over 8.5 rebounds + assists in 9 of his past 10 home games (12.1 average)

Cryer Scored 14+ Points in 9 of 10 Games Since Shooting 16.7% Against Jayhawks

Name: L.J. Cryer
Team: No. 4 Houston Cougars
Position: Guard
Today’s Matchup: vs. Kansas
Season Stats: 14.8 points (41.4% FG), 2.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists

Past 5 Games

• vs. Cincinnati: 20 points (53.8% FG), 1 rebound, 1 assist

• @ No. 10 Texas Tech: 5 points (20.0% FG), 3 rebounds, 3 assists

• vs. No. 8 Iowa State: 28 points (64.7% FG), 5 rebounds, 1 assist

• @ Arizona State: 18 points (46.2% FG), 4 rebounds, 6 assists

• @ No. 13 Arizona: 15 points (50.0% FG), 1 rebound, 2 assists

Matchup

• Cryer struggled in Houston’s win over Kansas earlier this season, scoring just nine points and shooting 16.7% from the field. But he scored 14+ points in nine of the 10 game since, shooting over 40% from the field in eight of those matchups.

In the News 

• Both the Giants and the Jets are interested in moving up in the NFL Draft to get the No. 1 pick, which the Titans are reportedly shopping.

• The Jets are trying to trade Davante Adams, and will likely cut him if they can’t get another team to take him.

• Giancarlo Stanton is going to start the MLB season on the injured list.

• Andre Agassi and Steffi Graf’s son picked baseball over tennis, and is now on Team Germany in this week’s World Baseball Classic qualifiers.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: Wake Forest vs. No. 2 Duke on ESPN (or Islanders vs. Rangers on NHL Network)

• 8pm: Rockets vs. Thunder on NBA TV

• 9pm: Kansas vs. No. 4 Houston on ESPN

Photo of the Day