Today's Top NBA Bets to Watch + 10 NHL Trends

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Men’s college basketball bracketology

• Top 10 Bets: The Mavs will be without 8 players against the Bucks

• Game of the Day: Alabama faces Florida in tough end-of-season scheduling stretch

• Betting Trends: Vancouver has failed to cover in 10 straight games as the favorite

• Player to Watch: Giannis averaged 34.8 points in past 5 against Dallas

• Overtime: Only two teams used their franchise tags this NFL offseason

The men’s college basketball regular season is winding down, as teams have 1-2 games left before the major conference tournaments begin next week. ESPN’s Bracketology has Auburn, Duke, Houston and Tennessee as the top seeds, with Boise State as the last team in and Oklahoma the last team out.

ESPN currently predicts the SEC will have 12 bids, followed by the Big Ten (11), Big 12 (eight), Big East and Mountain West (four), ACC (three), and WCC (two). Auburn (+330) is currently the favorite at FanDuel to win the title, followed by Duke (+350), Houston (+850), Florida (+950), and Tennessee and Alabama (+1300).

In the newsletter, Jack has the top 10 bets of the day across the NBA, men’s college basketball and the PGA Tour. Our game to watch is No. 5 Florida vs. No. 7 Alabama, we give you two betting trends from each of today’s NHL matchups, and we analyze Giannis vs. the depleted Mavericks.

— Abe Rakov

OKC Scored 133.6 Points per Game over Past 7, Ranks 1st in Offensive Rating in that Span

By Jack Dougherty

Celtics -10.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
We’ve been successfully riding the Trail Blazers during their recent hot streak, but this could be when it all comes crashing down. This is a brutal rest spot for Portland, which is playing its sixth straight road game in the span of 10 days. The Celtics, on the other hand, are playing their third straight home game and enter tonight with two days of rest. Keep an eye on Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who are both listed as questionable, but this is a spot for Boston to roll if healthy. 

Mavericks team total under 106.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Is there anyone in Dallas with some basketball background available to fly to Milwaukee tonight and help the team out? The Mavericks will be without Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively, Jaden Hardy, Dante Exum and Caleb Martin against the Bucks. Dallas has gone under this line in four of their past five games, and that was with Irving still on the court pacing the offense. The Bucks also have the fifth-best defensive rating in the NBA over their past 10 games. 

Thunder team total over 130.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)
This is an abnormally high team total, but it should be even higher. The Thunder are on a war path right now, averaging 133.6 points per game over their past seven games. Oklahoma City ranks first in the NBA in offensive rating and second in pace over that span. Now the Thunder get to play even quicker against the Grizzlies, who play at the fastest pace in the league. Memphis also has the worst defensive rating in the NBA over their past five games.

Men’s College Basketball

NC State +2.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
It’s never a bad idea to take the home underdog in a matchup between two reeling ACC teams. Pitt’s motivation factor might be in the toilet after losing three straight games to kill its NCAA Tournament hopes, and the Panthers are 1-7 on the road in conference play. At least NC State has something to play for in its final home game with six seniors on the roster. The Wolfpack should be at least a pick’em in this matchup.

Florida moneyline (+126 at FanDuel)
Florida is almost an auto-bet at plus-money. The Gators rank fourth in Kenpom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency. Alabama is right up there on offense, but its defense, which gives up 80.1 points per game, is the clear weak link in this matchup. Florida has played one bad half of basketball since the start of February, whereas Alabama is much more volatile with how fast it plays and how many threes it chucks up.

Wagner vs. Saint Francis over 124.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Wagner isn’t a fun watch because it ranks 363rd out of 364 college teams in adjusted tempo and 361st in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Seahawks love to muck up games and win low-scoring slugfests, but the offense actually has a path to success against Saint Francis and its 322nd-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency. The last time these two faced off Wagner shot 48.1% from the field and 47.8% from three, leading to a 68-66 final. 

Golf: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Tommy Fleetwood top-10 finish (+240 at FanDuel)
It’s hard to trust Fleetwood with an outright bet, but he’s the perfect target for a top-10 in this limited field. The Englishman is absolutely dialed in with his irons, as he ranks first on the PGA Tour this season in strokes gained on approach and proximity to the hole. Another one of his strengths is driving accuracy, which is crucial at Bay Hill with so much water danger surrounding the fairways. The stellar ball-striking should carry Fleetwood to another strong finish.

72-hole matchup: Andrew Novak > Lucas Glover (+105 at FanDuel)
Novak shouldn’t be the underdog in this matchup, especially with how poorly Glover has been playing. Glover has missed the cut in three of his past five starts, and his only solid finish in that span was a T3 at Pebble Beach, one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour schedule. Due to his lack of driving distance, Glover needs to stripe his irons to compete on these longer courses, and he’s not doing that right now. Novak, meanwhile, has three top-15 finishes in his past five starts and has been more consistent with his iron play.

72-hole matchup: Matt Fitzpatrick > Sam Burns (+100 at DraftKings)
This is another matchup where the odds should probably be flipped. Fitzpatrick isn’t playing well right now, but that’s because his short game has failed him early in the season. The Englishman has gained strokes from off the tee and on approach in three straight starts. Fitzpatrick also loves challenging golf courses, as evidenced by his five top-15 finishes in his past six starts at Bay Hill. Burns doesn’t have the same track record here, as he’s finished 30th or worse in six of his seven starts at the API. 

Will Zalatoris top-20 finish (+140 at FanDuel)
Speaking of a guy who loves hard golf courses, Zalatoris plays his best when the scoring is low and the conditions are firm and fast. He has a great track record in majors and finished T4 at last year’s API while working his way back from back surgery. Zalatoris’ elite ball striking is starting to return, as he’s gained strokes from off the tee and on approach in three straight starts and eight of his last 10 worldwide appearances. 

Alabama Faces 6th Ranked Team in a Row, Looks to Beat UF for the 4th Straight Time in Tuscaloosa

Alabama has beaten Florida three straight times in Tuscaloosa, with the Gators last win coming in 2019. Florida has won 7 of 8 games, while Alabama has dropped 3 of 5 (though all three loses were to top-15 teams). The Crimson Tide face seven ranked teams in a row to end the regular season.

• Spread: Alabama -2.5 (-118), Florida +2.5 (-104)

  • Alabama 17-12, Florida 21-8

  • 55% of the money and 52% of the bets are with Alabama

• Moneyline: Alabama -152, Florida +126

• Total (178.5): Over -106, Under -114

  • Alabama 16-13, Florida 13-16

No. 5 Florida (25-4, 12-4 SEC) vs. No. 7 Alabama (23-6, 12-4 SEC)
7pm on ESPN2

Top Insights:

• The under hit in 5 of the past 7 Gators road games

• UF’s Thomas Haugh has dished out at least 2 assists in 8 straight games (3.5 average)

• Alabama’s Clifford Omoruyi has combined for over 15.5 points + rebounds + assists in 5 straight home games (20.8 average)

• The Gators’ Alijah Martin has stayed under 2 turnovers in 5 straight road games (0.4 average)

• The Crimson Tide’s Aden Holloway went over 13.5 points + assists in 6 of his past 7 home games (17.6 average)

Head to Head

• March 2024: UF won 102-88 in Nashville

• March 2024: UF won 105-87 in Gainesville

• February 2024: Alabama won 98-93 (OT) in Tuscaloosa

• February 2023: Alabama won 97-69 in Tuscaloosa

• January 2022: Alabama won 83-70 in Gainesville

NHL: Canucks Failure to Cover as Favorites, Thomas has at Least 1 Point for Blues in 10 Straight

Capitals (39-14-8, 20-7-2 Away) vs. Rangers (31-26-4, 16-13-2 Home)

• Washington’s Dylan Strome had 2+ shots on goal in 10 of his past 13 games (2.3 average)

• The under hit in 12 of the past 18 Capitals road games

Senators (30-25-5, 13-16-3 Away) vs. Blackhawks (19-35-7, 12-15-3 Home)

• The Blackhawks are 12-5 against the spread in their past 17 games as the underdog

• Ottawa’s Thomas Chabot went over 2.5 shots on goal in 7 of his past 8 games (3.6 average)

Maple Leafs (38-20-3, 18-9-2 Away) vs. Golden Knights (36-18-6, 22-6-3 Home)

• The over hit in 9 of the past 12 Maple Leafs games vs. top 10 scoring defenses

• Toronto’s Auston Matthews has scored at least 1 point in 8 straight road games (1.5 average)

Ducks (26-26-7, 12-13-5 Away) vs. Canucks (27-22-11, 11-10-7 Home)

• The Canucks are 0-10 against the spread in their past 10 games as the favorite

• Anaheim’s Ryan Strome had 2+ shots on goal in 9 of his past 10 games (2.4 average)

Blues (29-27-6, 14-13-3 Away) vs. Kings (31-20-8, 19-3-3 Home)

• St. Louis Blues are 7-1 (87.5%) against the spread in their last 8 games vs. top 10 scoring defenses

• The Blues’ Robert Thomas has at least 1 point in 10 straight games (1.4 average)

Giannis Averaged 34.8 Points per Game in Past 5 Meetings Against Mavericks

Name: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Team: Milwaukee Bucks
Position: Power Forward
Today’s Matchup: vs. Mavericks
Season Stats: 30.9 points (60.6% FG), 12.1 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.3 blocks

Past 5 Games

• @ Atlanta: 26 points (50.0% FG), 12 rebounds, 10 assists, 1 steal

• @ Dallas: 29 points (64.3% FG), 9 rebounds, 9 assists, 2 blocks, 1 steal

• vs. Denver: 28 points (47.8% FG), 19 rebounds, 7 assists, 1 block

• @ Houston: 27 points (52.9% FG), 10 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 block, 1 steal

• vs. Miami: 23 points (61.1% FG), 16 rebounds, 7 assists, 1 block, 1 steal

Matchup

• Antetokounmpo just faced Dallas on Saturday, combining for 47 points + rebounds + assists. That was before the Mavericks lost Kyrie Irving for the rest of the season, so now Dallas officially knows they’re competing for the best lottery pick. Giannis has scored 29+ against the Mavericks in 14 straight matchups dating back to 2017. He’s averaged 34.8 points against Dallas over the past five meetings.

Potential Bets

• 29.5 points: Over -102, Under -130

• 12.5 rebounds: Over -110, Under -120

• 6.5 assists: Over +102, Under -136

• 48.5 points + rebounds + assists: Over -106, Under -125

In the News 

• The Jets released Davante Adams.

• The ACC reached a settlement with Florida State and Clemson, which ends the immediate threat of the schools leaving the conference (but it could still happen in the future).

• Roki Sasaki pitched three scoreless Spring Training innings in his Dodgers debut.

• The NFL saw the fewest number of franchise tags since 1994 (two).

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: No. 5 Florida vs. No. 7 Alabama on ESPN2

• 9:30pm: Thunder vs. Grizzlies on ESPN

• 10pm: Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights on TNT

Photo of the Day