A Look at NBA Teams Against the Spread + Today's Top 10 Bets to Watch

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: NBA teams against the spread

• Top 10 Bets: Suns rank 29th in defensive efficiency over their past 10

• Game of the Day: Ovechkin Watch continues against Red Wings

• Betting Trends: DiVincenzo has made 3+ three pointers in 9 straight

• Player to Watch: Purdue’s leading scorer is shooting 61.5%

• Overtime: Charles Barkley called future ESPN colleagues “fools at the other network”

Only four teams have a worse record than the Raptors, but Toronto has the third-best record against the spread in the NBA this season at 36-25-1. On the other end of the spectrum, Boston is the league’s third-best team record-wise but is 28-34-1 against the spread — 22nd in the association.

Five best teams against the spread

1) Cleveland: 40-21-1 (52-10 record)
2) Oklahoma City: 36-23-4 (51-11)
3) Toronto: 36-25-1 (20-42)
4) Los Angeles Lakers: 35-25-1 (40-21)
5) Portland: 36-26-1 (28-35)

Five worst teams against the spread

26) Washington: 26-33-2 (12-49)
27) Sacramento: 24-33-4 (32-29)
28) New Orleans: 25-37-1 (17-46)
29) Phoenix: 22-39-1 (29-33)
30) Philadelphia: 21-39-2 (21-41)

In the newsletter, Craig has his top 10 bets to watch today and we analyze the Red Wings vs. Capitals, give you betting trends for each of today’s eight NBA games, and profile No. 18 Purdue’s Trey Kaufman-Renn as he faces Illinois.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. Take a few minutes to read today’s great ESPN story about how North Carolina hired Bill Belichick.

With Knicks 8-1 to the Over on 2nd Leg of Back-to-Backs, Look for Harden Assists

By Craig Williams

Cavaliers -6.5 first quarter (-6.5 at ESPNBET)
The gap between the Hornets and Cavs is gargantuan across numerous traditional and advanced metrics. The Hornets have been simply abysmal offensively while the Cavs have been dominant on both ends of the floor. Just look at net rating for a quick example, where the Cavs rank No. 1 with a 17.3 net rating compared to the last-place Hornets checking in at -20.6. Getting out to a fast start and early advantage would allow for them to — in theory — cruise to a relatively easy victory, and take advantage of a soft spot in the schedule.

LaMelo Ball 4+ three-pointers made (-115 at bet365)
Don’t take this as a sign of bullishness on the Hornets offense, but the table appears set for an over on Ball’s three-pointers made. For starters, he shoots better from distance at home with slightly more volume. The Cavs’ three-point defense isn’t airtight, and for a three-point happy shooter like Ball, attempts should be plentiful. He’s been streaky, but he’s hit at least four threes on six occasions over his past 10 games.

Hornets under 108.5 points (-110 at ESPNBET)
It’s worth reiterating the offensive struggles the Hornets have endured over their recent stretch of futility. They rank dead last in offensive rating over their past 10 games. The Cavs, meanwhile, rank fourth in defensive rating over their 12-game winning streak. The Hornets simply can’t score outside of LaMelo Ball, and even if Ball gets his numbers, he will likely do so in an inefficient manner. And we’re bearish on the rest of the team providing the necessary support against a stout Cavs defense.

Cavs -13.5 alternate (-169 at DraftKings)
The only thing we’re guarding against with our conservative play is boredom and lack of urgency from the Cavs — especially if they get out to an early commanding lead. On paper, there’s no reason to anticipate a competitive showing from a Hornets team that has been so dreadful on offense and poor on defense. However, it’s not unreasonable to anticipate a little bump of energy from a home Friday night crowd, and the Cavs don’t necessarily need to cover the original number to thoroughly dominate an overmatched Hornets team.  

James Harden over 8.5 assists (-122 at FanDuel)
The Knicks are 8-1 to the over when they’re playing in the second leg of back-to-backs, and they have been poor defensively overall. Opposing teams have enjoyed quality offensive performances against the Knicks in these spots, and we’re expecting the same from the Clippers tonight. Harden leads the team in usage rate and assist percentage, and we like those metrics to ultimately result in a big individual performance, particularly in the assist column. His 8.4 assists over his past 10 games don’t jump off the page, but he has dished out double-digit assists 14 times in 27 games since the calendar flipped to 2025. 

Ivica Zubac over 16.5 points (-130 at FanDuel)
We’re leaning into the Knicks’ defensive struggles, particularly playing the second leg of back-to-back sets. We like Harden to rack up plenty of assists in this spot, and the Harden-to-Zubic pairing has served as a productive connection. Look for Zubac, who has averaged 18.3 points on 64% shooting, to take advantage of a porous Knicks’ defense and Harden’s ability to feed him clean looks.

Jazz vs. Raptors under 230.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Offense has not been a strength for the Jazz nor the Raptors of late — or this season at all, really. The Raptors enter with the league’s third-worst offensive rating over their past 10, while the Jazz check in at 10th-worst over the same span. The Raptors, to their credit, have played well defensively, ranking No. 7 in defensive rating over their past 10 contests in addition to playing at the game’s sixth-slowest pace.

Grizzlies -10.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
The Grizzlies will need to proceed without defensive stalwart Jaren Jackson Jr. for a bit, a task that may not hurt them too much on the offensive end of the floor. They can lean into their offense and pace in the meantime, particularly against a Mavericks team that is working with a skeleton crew, something that figures to hurt them both offensively and defensively. The Grizzlies have struggled of late, but we expect them to right the ship against a gutted Mavericks squad that has lost three in a row and is in danger of falling out of the postseason picture.

Nuggets over 122.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)
We’re going to pick on the Suns, who have been particularly poor on the road, both in the win-loss column and on the defensive end. They rank 29th in defensive efficiency over their past 10 games. Meanwhile, the Nuggets hit another gear offensively at home, scoring more points per game and playing more efficiently at Ball Arena. If the Suns’ defensive disinterest is exacerbated by the challenging conditions of playing in Denver, The Nuggets could put up a big number.

Nuggets -7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
The Suns may find a new source of motivation with the Mavericks freefalling due to their rash of injuries, but they need to demonstrate a higher level of play on the road before we’ll be willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. They’re especially poor on the road, where they’re 11-20 straight-up and 12-19 against the spread; they went 2-3 against the spread over a recent five-game road trip, and we expect them to struggle in this spot. 

Ovechkin Marches Toward Goal Record, Faces Faltering Red Wings in Washington

Alex Ovechkin is nine goals from tying Wayne Gretzky for the most in NHL history. He’s scored at least one goal in four of six games, while the Capitals have won two in a row after losing three straight. The Red Wings have lost four straight and six of eight, and have fallen to fifth in the Atlantic.

• Spread: Capitals -1.5 (+114), Red Wings +1.5 (-140)

• Moneyline: Capitals -225, Red Wings +184

• Total (6.5): Over +106, Under -130

Red Wings (30-26-6, 14-11-3 Away) vs. Capitals (40-14-8, 19-7-6 Home)
7pm on ESPN+

Top Insights:

• Washington’s Alex Ovechkin went over over 3.5 shots on goal in 7 of his past 8 games (4.9 average)

• The Red Wings’ Alex DeBrincat notched at least 1 point in 9 of his past 11 games (1.3 average)

• The Capitals’ Connor McMichael has 2+ shots on goal in 5 straight home games (3.0 average)

• Detroit’s Moritz Seider went over 24.5 ice time in 14 of his past 16 games (26.0 average)

• Washington’s Jakob Chychrun scored at least 1 point in 7 of his past 8 games vs. bottom 10 defenses for assists allowed (1.1 average)

Head to Head

• The Red Wings won 4-2 when these two teams faced off in December, a game that started a seven game winning streak for Detroit. The teams have split their past six matchups, averaging a combined 6.33 goals per game.

NBA: DiVincenzo’s Run on Three Pointers, Porter Jr.’s Scoring Against Bottom-10 Defenses

Cavaliers (52-10, 23-6 Away) vs. Hornets (14-47, 9-23 Home)

• Darius Garland combined for at least 29 points + rebounds + assists in 14 of his past 15 road games (31.9 average)

• De'Andre Hunter went over 17.5 points + rebounds in 9 of his past 11 games vs. bottom 10 defenses for rebounds allowed (24.2 average)

Jazz (15-47, 7-23 Away) vs. Raptors (20-42, 13-19 Home)

• The over hit in 10 of the past 15 Raptors games vs. bottom 10 scoring defenses

• Collin Sexton has at least 12 first half points + rebounds + assists in 5 straight games vs. bottom 10 defenses for points allowed (14.0 average)

Grizzlies (38-24, 16-14 Away) vs. Mavericks (32-31, 19-13 Home)

• Klay Thompson made 4+ three pointers in 4 of his past 5 games vs. bottom 10 defenses for 3-pointers allowed (4.6 average)

• Jaylen Wells scored at least 3 first quarter points in 8 of his past 10 games (3.9 average)

Timberwolves (35-29, 18-15 Away) vs. Heat (29-32, 15-12 Home)

• Jaden McDaniels has combined for over 7.5 rebounds + assists in 11 straight games vs. bottom 10 defenses for rebounds allowed (11.4 average)

• Donte DiVincenzo has made 3+ three pointers in 9 straight games (4.7 average)

Trail Blazers (28-35, 12-21 Away) vs. Thunder (51-11, 26-4 Home)

• Aaron Wiggins has made at least 1 steal in 7 straight home games (1.6 average)

• Toumani Camara has collected at least 2 first quarter rebounds in 5 straight games vs. bottom 10 defenses for rebounds allowed (3.8 average)

Suns (29-33, 11-20 Away) vs. Nuggets (40-22, 21-9 Home)

• Michael Porter Jr. has scored 18+ points in 9 straight games vs. bottom 10 defenses for points allowed (25.7 average)

• Nick Richards has grabbed at least 3 first quarter rebounds in 10 straight road games (4.6 average)

Spurs (26-34, 10-19 Away) vs. Kings (32-29, 15-14 Home)

• Devin Vassell has combined for over 6.5 rebounds + assists in 5 straight games (9.8 average)

• Keegan Murray made at least 1 block in 5 of his past 6 home games (1.3 average)

Knicks (40-21, 19-10 Away) vs. Clippers (33-29, 20-10 Home)

• Josh Hart has scored 4+ first quarter points in 5 straight road games (6.2 average)

• Kawhi Leonard has gone over 2.5 assists in 7 of his past 8 games (3.1 average)

Purdue’s Kaufman-Renn is 10th in NCAA with 61.5% FG Percentage, Scored 24+ in 3 of 5 Games

Name: Trey Kaufman-Renn
Team: No. 18 Purdue
Position: Forward
Today’s Matchup: @ Illinois
Season Stats: 19.4 points (61.5% FG), 6.1 rebounds, 2.3 assists

Past 5 Games

• vs. Rutgers: 16 points (80.0% FG), 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block, 1 steal

• vs. UCLA: 29 points (73.5% FG), 3 rebounds, 1 block

• @ Indiana: 9 points (50.0% FG), 4 rebounds

• @ No. 14 Michigan State: 24 points (69.2% FG), 3 rebounds, 2 assists

• vs. No. 16 Wisconsin: 30 points (75.0% FG), 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal

In the News 

• Charles Barkley called ESPN NBA analysts “fools at the other network” for Kendrick Perkins’ Lakers’ takes and debating Jordan vs. LeBron.

• Knicks owner James Dolan wants more transparency from the NBA’s league office.

• College conference realignment has led to longer travel and long-distance losses.

• The Bills asked for an exception to the NFL’s debt limit because of rising costs related to their new stadium.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 2:30pm: No. 10 Oklahoma vs. No. 12 Kentucky in the SEC women’s basketball tournament on ESPN

• 8pm: No. 18 Purdue vs. Illinois in men’s college basketball on FOX

• 10pm: Suns vs. Nuggets on ESPN

Photo of the Day