Doncic Has 30.5 Points Total in First Game Without LeBron + Our First NFL Futures

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: The NBA MVP race

• Top 10 Bets: NBA, tennis + our first look at NFL futures

• Game of the Day: Stumbling Knicks take on surprising Kings

• Betting Trends: Utah Hockey Club is 3-13 ATS in its past 16 games

• Player to Watch: Shelton looks to return to form at Indian Wells

• Overtime: A look at the top NFL free agents

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has scored at least 20 points in 59 straight games dating back to November, and he reached the mark yesterday in the first half alone (and then again in the second half). He’s averaging 32.9 points per game this season, and FanDuel has him all the way up to -600 to be the NBA’s MVP — the Thunder are 53-11 and just one game back from the Cavaliers for the league’s best record.

SGA’s only competition for the award, Nikola Jokic (+430), just recorded the first 30-20-20 triple-double in NBA history and is averaging a triple-double on the season. The two face off again tonight.

In today’s newsletter, Chris has his top 10 bets to watch, including our first look at NFL futures. We also give you a preview of the Brunson-less Knicks vs. the Kings, three betting trends from each of today’s four NHL games, and a look at Ben Shelton’s slow start to the tennis season.

— Abe Rakov

ICYMI: NC State fired head coach Kevin Keatts less than a year after he led the school to an improbable Final Four run. NC State owes him nearly $7 million, and as he said on social media, he’s “officially entering the portal.”

Doncic, Looking for a Big Night with LeBron Out, Led Lakers in Scoring in 4 of Past 5

By Chris Farley

Lakers -6.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
After taking on last year's champions, battling the Nets will be a welcome opponent for Luka Doncic and his new squad. Boston didn't necessarily "expose" the Lakers on Saturday, but it reminded the NBA-world just how much it'll take for the new-look Lake-show to beat the best of the best. In any case, Brooklyn is second-worst only to Dallas in net-rating over their past seven games, a lowly mark for a program that's obviously in experimentation mode. They've won just one and covered just two games in their past seven, but the market is giving them some respect since LeBron will sit after injuring his groin two nights ago. This is Luka's chance to shine, and we like the visitors to rally.

Luka Doncic over 30.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
For now the Lakers are still LeBron's team, but "the King" isn't playing on Monday. LeBron has been fantastic lately, averaging over 29 points per game in February and 26 per game in March, but Luka has led the team in scoring in four out of their past five. As the Lakers' organization prepares for LeBron's eventual retirement, Luka is their new "ace-in-the-hole," and he's finding himself comfortable rather quickly in the City of Angels. LeBron's leadership and facilitation helps, but Luka's averaging 20 shot attempts per game even with LeBron averaging 20 attempts himself. Luka is also red-hot from beyond the arc, making 43% in March. The Slovenian superstar looks set for a huge game against a bad defense (the Nets rank 24th in March). 

Atlanta Hawks over 122.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
The 76ers' season surely seems to be over. Now four games outside the 10th seed and with less than 20 games remaining, Philadelphia isn't sure if Tyrese Maxey will play on Monday, which is probably why this spread is so inflated. In any case, we can't play the Hawks at that number, they've only been a favorite of nine or more twice this season, and both instances were back in November. Atlanta's offense has been great in March, whether they win or lose, averaging 124 points per game in four contests. They were pretty damn good in February, too (121.8). Philadelphia's defense hasn't improved, ranked in the bottom five for the past three months, and this is a comfy spot for a Hawks' offense growing in confidence.

Utah Jazz +17.5 (-109 at Bookmaker)
We've seen a lot of huge spreads in our NBA handicapping and this is one of the more egregious, especially in early March! In any case, this would be a very easy game for the last year's champions to overlook, especially after they obliterated the red-hot Lakers two nights ago. Perhaps most importantly, the Celtics are just 13-22 against the spread as a double-digit favorite this season, and lately the Jazz have been more formidable with bettor's money (11-7 ATS since February 1st). Boston is also nursing injuries to star Jayson Tatum and Al Horford, and Kristaps Porzingis is doubtful. The table is set for Utah to keep this respectable.

Pacers -5 (-115 at Bookmaker)
We've been showing more support for the Chicago Bulls for good reason. Compared to their typical, pitiful norm, the Bulls have looked more in-sync lately. They rank a very respectable 13th in net rating and they've covered and won four games in their past seven games. We like Chicago against overrated programs, but they're still a roster that feels like an assembly of misfit toys. Indiana, on the other hand, is overflowing with talent but coming off two disappointing losses at Atlanta. No Tyrese Haliburton led to the Pacers often looking lost on the court, but their star tried to rally the troops in an interview recently, saying his men need to step up. The Pacers should play inspired, and we don't see Chicago keeping up. 

Tennis: WTA Indian Wells

Madison Keys wins 2-0 (+105 at DraftKings)
Few tennis players in the world have been as sound as Madison Keys to start the 2025 season. It's hard to believe how dominant she's been since January. She won the Adelaide International Tournament, soaring past top-American rival Jessica Pegula in the final, in early January, and then followed it up with a raucous run at the Australian Open, knocking off Danielle Collins, Elena Rybakina, Iga Swiatek, and Aryna Sabalenka on the way to her first grand-slam title. In the first round at Indian Wells, she annihilated Anna Potapova, a formidable Russian player ranked 34th in the world. Belgian elite Elise Mertens is no easy opponent, but right now the only thing stopping Keys is herself. We don't see it happening.

Coco Gauff wins 2-0 (-140 at FanDuel and DraftKings)
As the 2025 season begins to ramp up, the 3rd-ranked 20 year old had a real scare in the first round at Indian Wells, forced into a third-set tiebreaker against Moyuka Uchijima (ranked 52nd). She pulled through, but it was a slog that included 21 double faults. Normally, Gauff thrives on hard courts, winning over 70% in her career. And after a scintillating 2024 season where she finished by winning the WTA Finals tournament, a rocky start makes sense. With that clumsy opening behind her, she'll prepare to face an upstart Maria Sakkari (29th), who looked great in the first round (6-0, 6-3 win over Viktoriya Tomova). The problem is Sakkari hasn't looked her best in a long time, and she's just 2-5 since Melbourne. Regression should come hard on Monday.

Polina Kudermetova vs. Sonay Kartal over 21.5 games (-120 at FanDuel)
Kudermetova and Kartal are two rising stars in tennis who are only at the brink of their potential. The favorite, Kartal was granted an opportunity at Indian Wells thanks to a qualifier who opted out (after Kartal lost). In the second round she pummeled grizzled veteran Beatriz Haddad Maia (6-2, 6-1), and that came after an impressive victory over formidable Varvara Lepchenko. She had some nice moments last season, but she's most completed on smaller, British circuits. The market tends to think otherwise; frankly we're not sure why. Kudermetova (ranked 57th), on the other hand, has been climbing for a long time, facing off against stiffer competition already in 2025 and having already qualified for her first Australian Open. The value is clear.

NFL Futures

Bengals to win Super Bowl 60 (+2000 at Bet365)
If you've read my NFL pieces before you know I like the Cincinnati Bengals to win a Super Bowl in the near future. They've already found the most important Jenga-piece in Joe Burrow, an elite thrower and exceptional leader who returned to top form last season (4,918 passing yards and 43 touchdowns, first among all QBs). They're working on a huge deal with all-world receiver, Ja'Marr Chase, they've franchised his number-two, Tee Higgins, and they already re-signed star tight-end Mike Gesicki to a new contract. Cincinnati knows it's their defense that's been their Achilles heel, a unit they can focus on building in free agency and the draft. The sky's the limit every year for this program, and the odds are just too pretty to turn away.

Falcons to win NFC South (+225 at DraftKings)
The Atlanta Falcons have been going through extreme change for the past few seasons, but they can finally settle in. The 2025 season will mark the second campaign of Raheem Morris, a veteran coach who's been around some of the best offensive minds in the NFL. In a division that's a complete crap-shoot and equipped with a roster that's far more talented than their rivals, the Falcons finally have their quarterback in stud-armed Michael Penix Jr. He looks the part (775 yards, three touchdowns in three games). With talent oozing throughout their roster and fewer holes to fill, Atlanta is finally positioned to experience less attrition and begin building in a new era. We believe they should be the South's favorite.

Knicks (-2.5) are Favored on the Road Against Kings Even with Brunson Out

The Nuggets and Thunder are playing again today, and that’s probably the game of the day, but we don’t want to repeat here. So Knicks vs. Kings it is. New York has won seven of the past eight games in the series, but have lost three straight games overall and are just 5-5 over their past 10. The Kings have held on after trading De’Aaron Fox, as Sacramento is two games up on the free-falling Mavericks for the No. 9 seed in the West and have won six of its past 10 games. Jalen Brunson is out with a right ankle sprain.

• Spread: Knicks -2.5 (-108), Kings +2.5 (-112)

  • NYK: 27-34-2, SAC: 26-33-4

  • 59% of the money and 53% of the bets are with the Knicks

• Moneyline: Knicks -134, Kings +114

• Total (221): Over/Under -110

  • NYK: 34-29-0, SAC: 33-29-1

Knicks (40-23, 19-12 Away) vs. Kings (33-30, 16-14 Home)
10:30pm on NBA TV

Top Insights:

• Josh Hart has scored 4+ first quarter points in 6 straight road games (6.7 average)

• Zach LaVine grabbed at least 1 steal in 13 of his past 14 home games (1.1 average)

• Miles McBride has stayed under 1.5 turnovers in 19 straight games (0.4 average)

• Keegan Murray made at least 2 three pointers in 8 of his past 9 games (2.8 average)

• Precious Achiuwa has gone over 3.5 rebounds in 17 of his past 19 road games (6.1 average)

Head to Head

• Jan. 2025: Knicks won 143-120 in New York

• April 2024: Knicks won 120-109 in New York

• March 2024: Knicks won 98-91 in Sacramento

• March 2023: Kings won 122-117 in Sacramento

• Dec. 2022: Knicks won 112-99 in New York

NHL: Stutzle’s Points Streak for Ottawa, Utah’s Struggles Against the Spread

Oilers (37-22-4, 17-11-2 Away) vs. Sabres (24-32-6, 15-14-3 Home)

• The Oilers are 1-7 against the spread in their past 8 games vs. bottom 10 scoring defenses

• Darnell Nurse has gone over 1.5 shots on goal in 6 straight road games (3.3 average)

• Connor McDavid earned at least 1 assist in 9 of his past 10 road games (1.0 average)

Red Wings (30-27-6, 14-12-3 Away) vs. Senators (32-25-5, 18-9-2 Home)

• The over hit in 11 of the past 12 Senators games

• Tim Stutzle scored at least 1 point in 14 straight games (1.4 average)

• Alex DeBrincat has gone over 0.5 points in 5 of his past 6 road games (1.2 average)

Blackhawks (20-35-9, 7-20-5 Away) vs. Avalanche (38-24-2, 21-10-2 Home)

• Brock Nelson has at least 1 point in 9 straight home games (1.4 average)

• Cale Makar has gone over 0.5 assists in 6 straight home games (1.7 average)

• Ryan Donato has taken 2+ shots on goal in 6 of his past 7 road games (2.3 average)

Maple Leafs (38-22-3, 18-11-2 Away) vs. Utah Hockey Club (28-25-10, 12-13-6 Home)

• Utah Hockey Club is 3-13 against the spread in its past 16 games

• Barrett Hayton gone over 2.5 shots on goal in 5 straight games vs. bottom 10 defenses for shots on goal allowed (4.4 average)

• Auston Matthews has at least 1 assist in 9 of his past 10 road games (1.4 average)

Shelton is Looking for His 2nd Win Against a Top-25 Player This Season

Name: Ben Shelton
Seed: No. 11
2025 Record: 7-4
Today’s Matchup: vs. No. 22

Preview

• Shelton has gotten off to a slower start this year, as he’s lost in his first or second match in three of four tournaments — losing to three players ranked 49th or worse. Shelton did make it to the semifinals of the Australian Open, where he lost to eventual champion Jannik Sinner, but his draw was relatively easy. He only has one win against a top-25 player this year.

• The 22-year-old hasn’t faced today’s opponent, the 22nd-seed Karen Khachanov, who is just 3-5 on the year.

Potential Bets

• Winner: Shelton -137, Khachanov +114

• Game Spread: Shelton -1.5 (-110), Khachanov +1.5 (-120)

• Ben Shelton aces (6.5): Over -110, Under -120

In the News 

• A look at the top NFL free agents.

• The Steelers are getting DK Metcalf from the Seahawks.

• After a rocky start to the offseason, the Browns re-signed Myles Garret to a record contract extension that includes $123.5 million in guaranteed money.

• Who should sign Von Miller after he was released by the Bills?

• Florida State alum Luke Loucks will replace his former coach Leonard Hamilton as the school’s head coach.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 8pm: Nuggets vs. Thunder on NBA TV (followed by Knicks vs. Kings at 10:30pm)

• 9pm: Pepperdine vs. No. 21 Saint Mary’s on ESPN

• 11:30pm: San Francisco vs. Gonzaga on ESPN2

Photo of the Day