College Basketball Bets to Watch All Day + NBA Insights and PGA Tour Players Championship Odds

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Men’s college basketball Championship Week

• Top 10 Bets: Look out for Rutgers’ two lottery picks in the Big Ten Tournament

• Game of the Day: Holmgren has 2+ blocks in 9 of his past 10 games

• Betting Trends: The over hit in 9 of the past 10 Longhorns games

• Player to Watch: Alcaraz has only 2 losses in 2025

• Overtime: Could free agent signings change the NFL Draft?

It’s Championship Week in men’s college basketball. NCAA Tournament bids are up for grabs, but this week will likely determine seeding more than anything. ESPN’s Bracketology still has Auburn as the No. 1 overall seed despite losing their last two regular season games. They have Ohio State as the last team in and Boise State as the last team out. North Carolina, Texas and Colorado State are also on the outside looking in, with Oklahoma, Indiana and Xavier firmly on the bubble, according to ESPN.

Here are FanDuel’s odds for conference tournament champions:

• ACC: Duke -330, Clemson +650, Louisville +700

• Big East: St. John’s +130, UConn +390, Creighton +420, Marquette +600, Xavier +850

• Big Ten: Michigan State +250, Maryland +370, Wisconsin +650, Purdue +700, Illinois and UCLA +750

• Big 12: Houston +110, Texas Tech +350, Iowa State +600, Arizona +900, Kansas +1100

• SEC: Auburn +145, Florida +270, Alabama +460, Tennessee +650

• AAC: Memphis +105, North Texas +240, UAB +600, Florida Atlantic +950

• Mountain West: New Mexico +250, Colorado State +350, Utah State +360, Boise State +480, San Diego State +550

• Atlantic 10: VCU -110, Dayton +360, George Mason +750, Saint Joseph’s +850

In today’s newsletter, Jack has the top 10 bets to watch. We also give you a preview of the Thunder vs. Celtics, two betting trends for six men’s college basketball games, and a look at Carlos Alcaraz’s next match at Indian Wells.

— Abe Rakov

Heat Won Just 2 of Past 13 4th Quarters with -25.5 Net Rating in the Period Over that Span

By Jack Dougherty

Thunder moneyline (+130 at DraftKings)
This is a principle bet. If sportsbooks ever give you a chance to bet on the best team in the NBA at plus-money, you simply have to consider it. The Thunder rank No. 1 in the NBA in net rating (12.4), average scoring margin (+12.2), effective field-goal percentage allowed (51.1%) and three-point shooting percentage allowed (33.7%), which will be critical against a Celtics team that attempts more threes than any other team in the league. This spread got bumped up because Jalen Williams was ruled out, but the Thunder are 4-0 with an average winning margin of 26.8 with Williams out of the lineup this season.

Clippers 4th quarter winner (-102 at FanDuel)
The Heat have been allergic to closing games for nearly a month. Miami is an embarrassing 2-10-1 straight up in the fourth quarter in its past 13 games, ranking 29th in the NBA in fourth-quarter net rating (-25.5) over that span. This is more than a trend at this point. Miami’s offense shrinks up in crunch time without Jimmy Butler, while the Clippers have two trusty regular-season closers in James Harden and Kawhi Leonard.

Men’s College Basketball

Rutgers -1 (-110 at DraftKings)
If you’re looking for a long shot to make a run in the Big Ten Tournament, Rutgers might be worth a look. The Scarlet Knights have two NBA lottery talents in Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper, so their upside is as high as any team in the league. Rutgers won three of its past five regular-season games, and it would’ve been four of five if Michigan hadn’t hit a miraculous three-pointer at the buzzer to win by two. On the other side, USC is limping into the tournament with five losses in its last six games, including a 10-point loss to Rutgers on the road.

McNeese State vs. Lamar under 131.5 points (-110 at Bet635)
Defense should be the name of the game in the Southland Championship. Lamar stayed competitive in both matchups against McNeese State in the regular season because it held the Cowboys to a combined 12-of-42 (28.5%) from three-point land. The only chance the Cardinals have of pulling off the upset is slowing down the pace and winning with defense. Lamar ranks 310th in the country in effective field-goal percentage (47.7%) and 251st in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency.

Navy +3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
After a 15-18 regular season, Navy made a Cinderella run to the Patriot League Championship by knocking off No. 4 seed Boston University and No. 1 seed Bucknell. That’s the beauty of getting hot at the right time. The Midshipmen were 10-17 before rattling off seven wins in their past eight games. They rank 218th in the country in Bart Torvik’s T-Rank over the past month, while American ranks 235th in that span. Navy also swept American in the regular season with wins of 23 and eight points, respectively. 

Kansas State +6 (-110 at Bet365)
Kansas State has been a tough team to figure out this season due to its streakiness, but the arrow is pointing up right now. The Wildcats have won three of their past four games, with their only loss in that span coming against a strong Iowa State team. Baylor beat Kansas State by eight points in the regular season, but it was much closer than the final score suggested. KSU shot better from the field, but they attempted only nine free throws to Baylor’s 21. Expect the calls to even out in the rematch. Jerome Tang is also a great tournament coach and can keep this close.

Golf: The Players Championship

Collin Morikawa to win (+1400 at FanDuel)
No one wants to touch Morikawa after yet another Sunday choke job at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but that makes this the perfect time to strike. The American is so close to getting back in the winner’s circle, as he’s recorded three runner-up finishes in his past six starts dating back to the Tour Championship. Morikawa ranks second on Tour this season in total strokes gained, 10th in strokes gained on approach and fifth in driving accuracy. The keys at TPC Sawgrass are to stay out of trouble off the tee and pepper greens with your irons, and no one is doing that better than Morikawa right now.

Michael Kim top-20 finish (+280 at Bet365)
The Players Championship is a complete test of golf that relies on all facets of the game, and there aren’t many guys playing better all-around golf than Kim. Amazingly, the 31-year-old journeyman has gained strokes in all four major categories in five straight starts, leading to finishes of solo fourth, T6, T13, T13 and T2. Kim is playing the best golf of his career, and he’s brimming with confidence entering the fifth major. Ride the hot hand until he gives you a reason not to. 

Brian Harman top-40 finish (+105 at DraftKings)
Harman is one of the shortest hitters on the PGA Tour, but he can still compete on smaller, positional golf courses that take drivers out of longer hitters’ hands. Many players need to lay up with hybrids and irons on some of the par 4s at TPC Sawgrass, but Harman can pump driver on most of them and keep his ball in the fairway. That’s why he’s recorded three top-10 finishes in his past five starts at the Players Championship. We’re eyeing a safer top-40 bet because Harman’s putter has been cold, but he could contend for the title if he gets hot on the greens.

72-hole matchup: Brian Harman > Sahith Theegala (-140 at FanDuel)
Anyone interested in doubling down on Harman? Good, because this is the ideal matchup to back him in. We’ve already gone over how important accuracy off the tee is at TPC Sawgrass and how that’s one of Harman’s biggest strengths. Well, it’s not one of Theegala’s. The American ranks 133rd on Tour this season in driving accuracy and 147th in distance from edge of fairway, meaning when he misses, he misses big. That won’t fly at TPC Sawgrass with water lurking around every corner. Theegala has also lost strokes on approach in three of his past four starts and has just one finish better than T36 this season.

Top Defenses Square Off as Defending Champions Face Best of the West

The Thunder and Celtics have the Nos. 2 and 3-ranked scoring defenses in the league, respectively, and have both won eight of 10 games. The defending champions have lost more games at home than on the road this season. OKC is 17-12-2 against the spread on the road, while Boston is just 15-19-0 at home. The home team has won the past five games in this matchup.

• Spread: Celtics -3 (-110), Thunder +3 (-110)

  • BOS 29-35-1, OKC 39-24-3

  • 63% of the money and 67% of the bets are with the Thunder

• Moneyline: Celtics -155, Thunder +130

• Total (229): Over -108, Under -112

  • BOS 29-36-0, OKC 36-29-1

Thunder (53-12, 24-7 Away) vs. Celtics (47-18, 23-11 Home)
7:30pm on ESPN

Top Insights:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has gone over 1.5 steals + blocks in 6 straight road games (3.2 average)

• Derrick White has grabbed at least 1 first quarter rebound in 5 straight home games (1.2 average)

• Luguentz Dort has 1+ steals in 10 straight games (1.4 average)

• Isaiah Hartenstein combined for at least 21 points + rebounds in 11 of his past 12 road games (22.4 average)

• Chet Holmgren went over 1.5 blocks in 9 of his past 10 games (2.9 average)

Head to Head

• Jan. 2025: Thunder won 105-92 in OKC

• April 2024: Celtics won 135-100 in BOS

• Jan. 2024: Thunder won 127-123 in OKC

• Jan. 2023: Thunder won 150-117 in OKC

• Nov. 2022: Celtics won 162-122 in Boston

NCAAM: Iowa’s Record ATS as the Underdog, Cincinnati Overs

Cincinnati (18-14, 7-13 Big 12) vs. No. 12 Iowa State (23-8, 13-7 Big 12)

• The over hit in 8 of the past 11 Bearcats games

• Day Day Thomas scored 12+ points in 7 of his past 8 games (14.1 average)

Texas (17-14, 6-12 SEC) vs. Vanderbilt (20-11, 8-10 SEC)

• The over hit in 9 of the past 10 Longhorns games

• Tyler Nickel has made at least 2 three pointers in 5 straight games (3.8 average)

Iowa (16-15, 7-13 Big Ten) vs. Ohio State (17-14, 9-11 Big Ten)

• The Hawkeyes are 2-12 against the spread in their past 14 games as the underdog

• Payton Sandfort has collected 7+ rebounds in 5 straight games (8.0 average)

Kansas State (16-16, 9-11 Big 12) vs. Baylor (18-13, 10-10 Big 12)

• The Wildcats 12-5 against the spread in their past 17 games

• The under hit in 4 of the past 6 Wildcats games where they were the underdog

USC (15-16, 7-13 Big Ten) vs. Rutgers (15-16, 8-12 Big Ten)

• Saint Thomas dished out at least 2.5 assists in 13 of his past 15 games (4.2 average)

• Dylan Harper had 2+ steals in 4 of his past 5 games (2.8 average)

Oklahoma (19-12, 6-12 SEC) vs. Georgia (20-11, 8-10 SEC)

• The Sooners are 5-0 against the spread in their past 5 games as the underdog

• Jeremiah Fears has gone over 3.5 assists in 5 straight games (6.4 average)

Alcaraz Only Lost Twice in 2025, But Lost 2 in a Row vs. Dimitrov at Masters 1000 Events

Name: Carlos Alcaraz
Seed: 2
2025 Record: 13-2
Today’s Matchup: vs. No. 14 Grigor Dimitrov

Preview

• Alcaraz has a 3-2 advantage over Dimitrov, but the Bulgarian has won the past two matches (both in Masters 1000 events).

• Alcaraz has played in three tournaments this year, winning in Rotterdam and losing to Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open and No. 25 Jiri Lehecka in the quarterfinals in Doha.

Past 5 matches vs. top 50 opponents

• Doha: Lost 3-6, 6-3, 4-6 in the quarterfinals vs. Lehecka (25)

• Rotterdam: Won in the final 6-4, 3-6, 6-2 vs. de Minaur (8)

• Rotterdam: Won in the semifinal 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 vs. Hurkacz (21)

• Rotterdam: Won in the quarterfinal 6-2, 6-1 vs. Martinez (44)

• Australian Open: Lost in the quarterfinal 6-4, 4-6, 3-6, 4-6 vs. Djokovic (7)

Potential Bets

• Winner: Alcaraz -780, Dimitrov +490

• Game Spread: Alcaraz -4.5 (-140), Dimitrov +4.5 (+105)

• 20.5 total games: Over -110, Under -120

• Both players to win a set: Yes +205, No -290

In the News 

• How free agent signings could impact the NFL Draft.

• NFL free agency Day 2 winners and losers.

• Joey Bosa is headed to the Bills on a 1-year deal.

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. wants a $500 million contract.

• Tiger will miss the Masters with an Achilles injury.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 12:30pm: Cincinnati vs. No. 12 Iowa State on ESPN

• 3:30pm: Texas vs. Vanderbilt on SEC Network

• 7:30pm: Thunder vs. Celtics on ESPN (or Sabres vs. Red Wings on TNT)

• 10pm: Timberwolves vs. Nuggets on ESPN (or Ducks vs. Utah Hockey Club on TNT)

Photo of the Day