Cavs (-2) Head to Memphis Riding 15-Game Winning Streak + Gators Won 7 of 8 ATS

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: NCAA Tournament bubble watch

• Top 10 Bets: Rockets have the NBA’s best net rating over 4-game winning streak

• Game of the Day: Cavs have the best road record ATS in the NBA

• Betting Trends: The Gators are 7-1 against the spread in their past 8 games as the favorite

• Player to Watch: Harden has gone over tonight’s P+R+A total in 4 of 5

• Overtime: $3.1 billion in NCAA tournament bets

Texas might have played its way into the NCAA Tournament with its win over Texas A&M yesterday, but most prognosticators still have the Longhorns as the last team in the tournament (they play No. 8 Tennessee today). UNC is generally on the positive side of the bubble and probably won’t have to face Cooper Flagg when they take on Duke today.

Indiana and Ohio State are in some trouble, as most experts have them out of the tournament and they have no more games to play. Boise State and Colorado State, on the other hand, are probably on the outside looking in right now but have opportunities to make their cases today against New Mexico and Utah State, respectively.

In today’s newsletter, Craig gives you his top 10 bets to watch, and we have a preview of the Cavs vs. Grizzlies matchup, betting trends from men’s college basketball conference tournaments, and a look at James Harden’s hot streak overall but struggles against the Hawks.

— Abe Rakov

Rockets Own NBA’s Best Net Rating over 4-Game Winning Streak, Mavs are 1-4 without Kyrie

By Craig Williams

Pacers -11 (-108 at FanDuel)
The Pacers enter play ranked top 10 in offensive rating and pace. They haven’t been stout defensively, but that’s a weakness they should be able to hide against the 76ers’ 24th-ranked offensive rating. The Sixers are 3-12 against the spread over their past 15 games and complement a poor offense with the 28th-ranked defensive rating over that span. Home cooking has not done the Sixers much good. They’re 10-22-1 against the spread at the Wells Fargo Center and have failed to cover seven of the past eight at home — with the one cover coming against the Jimmy Butler-less Warriors.

Rockets -9.5 alternate (-160 at BetMGM)
The Mavericks are 1-4 straight-up and against the spread since Kyrie Irving went down with an ACL tear, and they’re 1-6 straight-up and against the spread over their past seven games overall. The Rockets have won four in a row and protect their home floor with a 23-10 record straight-up. They’re “only” 18-15 against the spread at the Toyota Center, but given their current form — they own the league’s best net rating over their four-game winning streak — and the Mavs’ struggles, we like them to prevail. We’re taking a slightly more conservative approach due to the absence of Amen Thompson.

Parlay: Spurs moneyline + game total under 229.5 points (+184 at DraftKings)
The Hornets are playing particularly poorly on offense over their past 10 games, checking in at 30th in offensive rating. Plus they’re less efficient away from home. That will be the saving grace for the Spurs, whose defensive rating checks in at 30th over their own past 10 games. The Spurs will be without point guard De’Aaron Fox, adding to a list of injured players that already includes Victor Wembanyama. San Antonio isn’t without quality players, and the Hornets are especially bad on the road. We like the Spurs to add a tally to the win column, but we won’t be surprised if they do so in ugly fashion.

LaMelo Ball 3+ made three-pointers (-260 at FanDuel)
Defense has not been the Spurs’ strong suit in recent weeks, and it’s showing up behind the three-point line. They’re allowing the sixth-most three-pointers made and the fourth-highest three-point percentage over their past three games. We don’t expect the Hornets to have a quality scoring performance overall, but that doesn’t mean we’re not eyeing the over on Ball’s three-point makes in what figures to be an inviting matchup for him. He’s hitting 3.5 on 11.4 attempts from beyond the arc on the road this season.

Magic under 98.5 points (-105 at ESPNBET)
The Magic struggle away from home in terms of win-loss, against the spread, and offensive efficiency, where they enter with the third-worst road mark in the league. The Magic are 3-7 across their past 10 overall, and rank 25th in offensive rating over that span. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are red-hot, winning six in a row (5-1 against the spread), and entering tonight’s contest with a top-10 defensive rating across their streak.

Celtics -8 (-110 at bet365)
The Celtics are 14-4 against the spread following a loss, and they’ll have the opportunity to take out their frustration on the Heat after falling to the Thunder on Wednesday night. They’re still 7-3 over their past 10 with the seventh-best net rating over that span. They’re playing a Heat team that has dropped five in a row as they’ve really struggled offensively — last in offensive rating over their five-game skid — with only mediocre defense to cover it up. The Celtics have covered seven of their past 10 games against the Heat.

Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies under 244 points (-112 at DraftKings)
The Cavs ride into Memphis with a 15-game win streak intact to face a Grizzlies team that has won four straight. Neither team is ripping the nets off of the rim offensively of late, but both teams are ranked in the top seven in defensive rating over their past four. The pace won’t be slow — the Grizzlies rank ninth in pace during their win streak — but we’re not talking about two teams that will necessarily resort to a track meet. Finally, both teams have finished under in each of their past four contests.

Lakers under 107.5 points (-105 at ESPNBET)
The Lakers are playing their fourth consecutive game on the road, this time the second leg of a back-to-back in Denver. It’s hardly the best environment for a struggling and undermanned team that will take the floor without LeBron James. The Lakers have remained under 107 points in two of their past three, and the one instance in which they went over was a 111-108 loss to the Brooklyn Nets. This is a big game for both teams as they jockey for positioning in a competitive Western Conference, and we expect the Nuggets to take advantage of their home environment and the Lakers’ theoretical fatigue. 

Raptors +2 (-105 at bet365)
The Raptors are probably too far outside of the play-in spots to hope for postseason basketball, but they at least still have a shot. The Jazz, on the other hand, have been eliminated, and their form — 1-9 over their past 10 and seven straight losses — reinforces that reality. Toronto enters play 6-4 over their past 10 with two wins in a row. They are 16-13 as the road underdog, and we like them to show up against a Jazz team that is 8-24 at home overall and 0-1 against the spread as a home favorite.

Austin Reaves (watch both points and threes made when the totals come out)
It’s not unreasonable to suggest that it’s been a challenge for Austin Reaves to adjust to life with Luka Doncic — he averaged 14 shot attempts per game before the trade and 12.5 since. He’s going to have another chance to shine, this time as the No. 2 to Doncic instead of LeBron James, who is out with a groin injury. Reaves and the Lakers played last night, including Doncic logging 35 minutes. Playing in Denver on the second leg of a back-to-back is a brutal turnaround, and a situation in which Reaves — due to the Nuggets defense on Luka and the Lakers’ efforts to manage his load — could see increased shot volume.

NBA’s Top 2 Scoring Teams Face Off Averaging 245.3 Combined Points, Tonight’s Total is 244

The Cavaliers have won 15 games in a row and head to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies, winners of four straight — but Donovan Mitchell is out tonight. Cleveland is an NBA-best 21-10-0 against the spread on the road, while Jaren Jackson Jr. is questionable. Memphis is 18-16-0 at home. The Cavs are also 12-4-0 against the spread with a rest advantage, and the Grizzlies have the most wins ATS in the NBA on a rest disadvantage at 11-4-0.

• Spread: Cavaliers -2 (-108), Grizzlies +2 (-112)

  • CLE: 41-23-1, MEM: 35-28-3

  • 71% of the money and 72% of the bets are with the Cavaliers

• Moneyline: Cavaliers -134, Grizzlies +114

• Total (244): Over/Under -110

  • CLE: 41-24-0, MEM: 38-28-0

Cavaliers (55-10, 25-6 Away) vs. Grizzlies (42-24, 24-10 Home)
8:00pm

Top Insights:

• Jaylen Wells has grabbed at least 1 first quarter rebounds in 5 straight games (2.4 average)

• Max Strus has combined for at least 19 points + rebounds + assists in 5 straight games vs. bottom 10 defenses for points allowed (22.0 average)

• Desmond Bane has stayed under 2.5 turnovers in 5 straight games (1.2 average)

• Ty Jerome combined for at least 17 points + rebounds in 4 of his past 5 games vs. bottom 10 defenses for points allowed (19.8 average)

• Jaylen Wells has gone over 3.5 rebounds in 5 straight games (5.4 average)

Head to Head

• These two teams played in Cleveland on February 23rd in a 129-123 Cavaliers win. Donovan Mitchell scored 33 points on 11-23 shooting (including 4-8 from three) and Evan Mobley added 25 points, 13 rebounds and 8 assists. Jaren Jackson Jr. led the way for the Grizzlies with 22 points, while Ja Morant scored 21 and dished out 10 assists.

NCAAM: Toppin’s Blocks for Texas Tech, Longhorns Overs

• No. 23 Oregon (24-8, 12-8 Big Ten) vs. No. 7 Michigan State (26-5, 17-3 Big Ten): Michigan State’s Jase Richardson has gone over 21.5 points + rebounds + assists in 5 straight games (25.4 average)

• Ole Miss (22-10, 10-8 SEC) vs. No. 3 Auburn (27-4, 15-3 SEC): Ole Miss’s Sean Pedulla has at least 2 turnovers in 8 straight games (3.0 average)

• No. 18 Wisconsin (24-8, 13-7 Big Ten) vs. UCLA (22-9, 13-7 Big Ten): UCLA’s Skyy Clark has grabbed at least 1 steal in 5 straight games (1.8 average)

• Texas (19-14, 6-12 SEC) vs. No. 8 Tennessee(25-6, 12-6 SEC): The over hit in 11 of the past 12 Longhorns games

• No. 25 Marquette (23-9, 13-7 Big East) vs. No. 6 St. John's (28-4, 18-2 Big East): The Red Storm’s RJ Luis Jr. has stayed under 2.5 assists in 5 straight games (0.6 average)

• No. 24 Illinois (21-11, 12-8 Big Ten) vs. No. 11 Maryland (24-7, 14-6 Big Ten): The Illini are 2-6 against the spread in their past 8 games as the underdog

• North Carolina (22-12, 13-7 ACC) vs. No. 1 Duke (29-3, 19-1 ACC): RJ Davis has made 3+ three pointers in 6 straight games (3.5 average)

• No. 17 BYU (24-8, 14-6 Big 12) vs. No. 2 Houston (28-4, 19-1 Big 12): Houston’s Milos Uzan has stayed under 4 assists in 6 straight games (1.8 average)

• No. 21 Missouri (22-10, 10-8 SEC) vs. No. 4 Florida (27-4, 14-4 SEC): The Gators are 7-1 against the spread in their past 8 games as the favorite

• No. 15 Kentucky (22-10, 10-8 SEC) vs. No. 5 Alabama (24-7, 13-5 SEC): The over hit in 7 of Kentucky’s past 9 games as the underdog

• Arizona (21-11, 14-6 Big 12) vs. No. 9 Texas Tech (25-7, 15-5 Big 12): Texas Tech’s JT Toppin had at least 1 block in 10 of his past 11 games (1.5 average)

Harden Scored 24+ Points in 5 Straight Games, But Struggled in Past 2 Matchups with Hawks

Name: James Harden
Team: LA Clippers
Position: Shooting Guard
Today’s Matchup: @ Hawks
Season Stats: 22.3 points (39.2% FG), 8.7 assists, 5.8 rebounds

Past 5 Games

• @ Miami: 24 points (30.0% FG), 11 assists, 8 rebounds

• @ New Orleans: 25 points (40.0% FG), 17 assists, 4 rebounds

• vs. Sacramento: 29 points (52.6% FG), 11 assists, 9 rebounds

• vs. New York: 27 points (35.0% FG), 7 assists, 3 rebounds

• vs. Detroit: 50 points (58.3% FG), 5 assists, 4 rebounds

Head-to-Head

• Harden has scored 20 or fewer points in four of his past five matchups against the Hawks dating back to 2021 (including scoring just 9 and 10 points in the past two matchups).

Potential Bets

• 26.5 points: Over -108, Under -122

• 5.5 rebounds: Over -130, Under -102

• 9.5 assists: Over -104, Under -128

• 41.5 points + rebounds + assists: Over -120, Under -110

In the News 

• The American Gaming Association projects that $3.1 billion will be bet on the men’s and women’s NCAA basketball tournaments this year.

• Duke’s Cooper Flagg rolled his ankle in yesterday’s game and is unlikely to play against UNC today.

• Five Japanese players are getting a homecoming in the Dodgers vs. Cubs series in Tokyo.

• F1 superstar Lewis Hamilton is preparing for his first race as a Ferrari driver.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 11am: No. 23 Oregon vs. No. 7 Michigan State on Big Ten Network

• 2:30pm: No. 18 Wisconsin vs. UCLA on Big Ten Network

• 3:30pm: Texas vs. No. 8 Tennessee on ESPN

• 6:30pm: No. 25 Marquette vs. No. 6 St. John’s on FOX

• 7pm: North Carolina vs. No. 1 Duke on ESPN (or No. 17 BYU vs. No. 2 Houston on ESPN2)

• 8pm: Stars vs. Jets on NHL Network

• 9:30pm: Lakers vs. Nuggets on NBA TV (or No. 10 Clemson vs. No. 13 Louisville on ESPN)

Photo of the Day