NCAA Tournament Bracket Challenge + NBA Bets to Watch Today

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Join Sportmoney’s free NCAA Tournament pool (win $250!)

• Top 10 Bets: Doncic and Reaves combined for 61 points yesterday

• Game of the Day: Warriors are 2nd best ATS in the NBA on equal rest

• Betting Trends: Voronkov had 2+ shots on goal in 14 of his past 16 home games for Blue Jackets

• Overtime: NCAA tournament guides to check out

The SEC set a record with 14 teams selected to the NCAA Tournament, and regular season champion Auburn was picked as the No. 1 overall seed. We’ll have full coverage of the tournament tomorrow and Wednesday to get you ready for Thursday’s first round matchups and beyond. Duke (+290) opens up as the favorite to win the title, followed by Florida (+390), Auburn (+500), Houston (+700), Alabama (+2000) and Tennessee (+2200).

We’re inviting all Sportmoney subscribers to join our free pool (you can sign up here). The winner will get $250, 2nd place $125, 3rd place $75, 4th place $50 and 5th place $25. Everyone that finishes in the top 15 will receive a free 1-year subscription to Sportmoney Daily.

In the newsletter, Chris has his top 10 bets to watch today, and we give you research for the Nuggets vs. Warriors matchup and betting trends for all five NHL games.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. Remember to sign up today for Sportmoney’s bracket challenge (click this link to join).

Knicks Covered the Spread in Just 3 of 12 Games Since the Break, and Brunson is Still Out

By Chris Farley

Miami Heat +7.5 (-110 at Bet365)
Away from South Beach, the Heat haven't been a good program this season, ranked second-worst among all teams against the spread (12-21-1, 36.4%). Even worse, Miami hasn't covered in five straight games, four of which were at home in front of their fans. Still, the Heat are currently 9th in the East and would love to find themselves in a better position for the play-in tournament, and the Knicks, who are still without Jalen Brunson, have only covered the spread in 3 out of 12 games since the break. Before their recent regression, Miami covered six straight, and we know they have the coaching and veterans to rise to the occasion. This is too much inflation.

Pacers vs. Timberwolves over 229.5 points (-108 at DraftKings)
Two teams that are built very differently, the Pacers and Timberwolves will make for a very interesting matchup on Monday. The visiting Pacers are known more for their sterling offense, a group that's risen to 9th in offensive efficiency since the break, with a top-5 rating in true shooting percentage to boot. On the road they're not quite as potent, though, averaging 115 per contest. Regardless, we expect positive regression on Monday, since Indiana knows that a blitzing attack is the only way they can beat a Minnesota squad that's looked terrific since the break (8-4, 7th in net rating). Even better, Minnesota's offense has drastically improved with the return of Julius Randle, ranking 2nd overall. Expect points.

Julius Randle over 19.5 points (-105 at Bovada)
Speaking of Randle, the former Laker and Knick seems to love his new home in Minnesota, especially since returning from injury. In seven March games at just 31 minutes per start, Randle is averaging over 19 points per game, his highest mark since November. Against high-scoring outfits, he contributes even more (25 recently versus Denver, 20 and 28 in two recent games against Phoenix), and he's reached 20 or more points in 7 of his past 11 starts. The Indiana offense is above-average, but defensively they haven't been stellar all season (12th), and they're even worse since the break (15th), permitting over 114 points per game over the same span. Opportunity abounds for Randle on Monday.

Pistons -6.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Five games outside of the play-in tournament and with only 12 games left in their regular season schedule, it's unlikely that the Pistons will fall beneath the 6th spot in the Eastern Conference. While that may suggest that their motivation could wane, we highly doubt it, especially coming off two disappointing losses — particularly an inexcusable defeat hosting the Wizards. In any event, Detroit remains one of the best programs since the break, net-rated 5th with a defense that's ascended to 3rd overall. The Pelicans, a beaten-up roster that's bottom-third on offense and averaging just 111.8 points per game, are ripe for the slaughter in this clash.

Raptors +8.5 (-110 consensus)
The more the Suns lose, the less they have to play for, but they still have an outside shot to make the playoffs. Following a bad defeat at Los Angeles, where they allowed Luka Doncic to score 33 points, the defense-less Suns head back home to host the Raptors — who are on a hellish road back to back, at Portland last night. Just two games outside the play-in tournament, Phoenix welcomes a Toronto roster that's struggled offensively (ranked 28th since the break) but has become a top-6 defensive program. The Phoenix offense, while still performing well (6th since the break), won't have it easy against a well-coached Raptors' resistance, and this is the Suns' biggest spread since January 25th. We can't trust it.

Warriors -4.5 (-110 at BetOnline and BetMGM)
Golden State has now won 11 straight games when Jimmy Butler is in the lineup and they're 14-2 since they traded for the veteran difference-maker. Monday marks their fifth home game in a row, in what's been a series of tough opponents that's resulted in all wins. Since the break, no team has a higher rating (1st in net rating), and they're the NBA's best offense and second-best defense during the same span. Denver is completely healthy and always capable of beating any team, they just haven't been nearly as impressive since the break. Since February 19th, they're 7-6 straight up and have struggled on the road all season (16-18 against the spread). We'll side with momentum.

Jimmy Butler over 6.5 assists (-127 at Pinnacle)
One of Butler's greatest assets is his ability to see the floor. Like a quarterback, his eyes are always looking down the court, trying to create the best shot for his team. As gifted a scorer as he is, he's also very unselfish, and as he's become more oriented with his new team he's become the new leader the Warriors didn't know they needed. Lately, he's the one taking the ball up the court as the team's point guard, especially with Brandin Podziemski injured since March 6th. Since the rookie's been out, Butler has accrued 29 assists in just four games, over seven per contest. In what projects to be a high scoring affair, we love Butler's passing prowess to be on full display Monday night.

Nuggets vs. Warriors over 236.5 points (-105 at Bovada)
The Nuggets and Warriors are two of the most potent offenses in the NBA, ranked 8th and 3rd, respectively, in offensive efficiency since the break. Both franchises also average over 120 points per game in the same span. Interestingly, both teams also run at a faster tempo in this scenario (Denver on the road, Golden State at home), each averaging over 100 possessions per game. Last time these two teams met, less efficient versions still scored 234 combined points, falling beneath the listed total (237.5). The market clearly feels that the result will be different in this rematch, and so do we.

Lakers -8.5 (-110 at Bet365)
Momentum has a way of rebuilding confidence, and the Lakers must be salivating at the idea of creating more team chemistry before LeBron James returns from injury. According to Shams Charania of ESPN, "the King" will miss at least another week. Last night, Luka and his teammates were unbothered, though, as they cruised to an 11-point victory over a riled up Suns' squad still trying to eke its way into the playoffs. Luka and Austin Reaves were a dynamic duo again, combining for 61 points. The Spurs are off a rare win, but their defense ranks dead last in the NBA since the break. The Lakers own the fourth-best defense in the same span. With Luka and his teammates growing more chemistry, there's only one way we can look.

Austin Reaves over 24.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
The continual growth of Austin Reaves has been on full display. With LeBron out with a groin injury and the Lakers' roster both excited and required to assimilate Luka to their team, Reaves has stepped up as the team's #2 — hitting 28 or more points in three out of his past four games. Luka, who's an extremely skilled passer, has been a great compliment for Reaves, often dishing to his new favorite teammate when he inevitably draws the enemy's attention. Reaves certainly seems comfortable, hitting 52% of his field goals over the past three games. On a back to back, Luka could see more rest, while Reaves is facing the NBA's worst resistance.

Faltering Nuggets Look to Keep Pace for West’s No. 2 Seed, Face NBA’s Hottest Team in Warriors

The Nuggets have hit a bit of a slump, winning just six of their past 12 games after a nine game winning streak had Denver surging. No team has a better record than the Warriors of late, as they’ve won 12 of 13 games. Both teams had a day off before this matchup — Golden State is 2nd in the NBA with a 21-12-0 record against the spread on equal rest, while Denver is 17-16-1.

• Spread: Warriors -4.5 (-110), Nuggets +4.5 (-110)

  • GS: 35-31-1, DEN: 32-35-1

  • 64% of the money and 71% of the bets are with the Nuggets

• Moneyline: Warriors -184, Nuggets +154

• Total (236.5): Over -108, Under -112

  • GS: 34-33-0, DEN: 39-28-1

Nuggets (43-25, 20-14 Away) vs. Warriors (39-28, 21-13 Home)
10:00pm on ESPN

Top Insights:

• The over hit in 8 of the Nuggets past 12 games as an underdog

• Denver Nuggets is 4-8 against the spread in their past 12 road games

• Buddy Hield combined for at least 14 points + rebounds + assists in 5 of his past 6 games vs. bottom 10 defenses for assists allowed (22.0 average)

• Jimmy Butler III collected 6+ rebounds in 4 of his past 5 home games (7.6 average)

Head to Head

• The Nuggets won 119-115 in Denver when these teams faced off in December. Jokic had a relatively rare non-triple double, but scored 38 points to go along with 10 rebounds, 6 assists, 5 steals and a block. Stephen Curry had 24 points on 8-23 shooting for the Warriors (including 4-15 from three). This game was before Golden State’s Jimmy Butler-era — the Warriors are 14-1 when the mid-season acquisition plays.

NHL: Byfield’s Shot Streak for the Kings, Nylander’s Points at Home for the Maple Leafs

Sabres (26-33-6, 9-19-3 Away) vs. Bruins (30-30-8, 19-12-5 Home)

• The over hit in 9 of the Sabres past 11 games vs. bottom 10 scoring defenses

• Mason Lohrei has 2+ shots on goal in 9 of his past 11 games (2.7 average)

Flyers (28-32-8, 12-13-7 Away) vs. Lightning (38-23-5, 23-8-2 Home)

• Nikita Kucherov went over 2.5 shots on goal in 9 of his past 10 home games (3.4 average)

• Brandon Hagel scored at least 1 point in 12 of his past 15 games (1.3 average)

Devils (36-26-6, 19-15-2 Away) vs. Blue Jackets (31-27-8, 20-8-4 Home)

• Jesper Bratt made at least 1 assist in 9 of his past 10 games vs. bottom 10 defenses for assists allowed (1.5 average)

• Dmitri Voronkov had 2+ shots on goal in 14 of his past 16 home games (2.9 shots average)

Flames (30-24-11, 12-13-6 Away) vs. Maple Leafs (39-24-3, 20-13-1 Home)

• The under hit in 6 of the Calgary Flames past 7 road games

• William Nylander has at least 1 point in 8 straight home games (1.4 average)

Kings (36-20-9, 13-17-5 Away) vs. Wild (37-25-5, 15-15-2 Home)

• Quinton Byfield has 2+ shots on goal in 8 straight games vs. bottom 10 defenses for shots on goal allowed (2.9 average)

• Warren Foegele went over 1.5 shots on goal in 10 of his past 11 games (2.7 average)

In the News 

• ESPN’s guide to all 68 teams in the men’s NCAA tournament field.

• CBS Sports’s rankings of every men’s NCAA tournament team from 1-68.

• USA Today’s tips for filling out a bracket.

• Yahoo Sports’s tournament bracket 101.

• ESPN’s analysis of the women’s NCAA tournament field.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 1:05pm: Blue Jays vs. Phillies in Spring Training action on MLB.com

• 7:30pm: Heat vs. Knicks on ESPN

• 8pm: Kings vs. Wild for the NHL on ESPN+

• 10pm: Nuggets vs. Warriors on ESPN

Photo of the Day