NCAA Tournament Odds + A Look at Tonight's Haliburton Assist Total and More NBA Insights

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Women’s NCAA Tournament odds

• Top 10 Bets: Haliburton is averaging 12.2 assists/game since the All Star break

• Game of the Day: UT is 23-11 to the over this season

• Betting Trends: Insights from all 11 of today’s NBA games

• Player to Watch: Stephenson has 16.6% of his assists on the season in past 6 games

• Overtime: Ranking all 68 teams in the men’s NCAA basketball tournament

South Carolina is the favorite to win the women’s NCAA basketball tournament at +230, followed by UConn (+250), UCLA (+600), Texas (+700), USC (+800) and Notre Dame (+1300). Read about the winners and losers in this year’s bracket, according to ESPN. The worst seed to ever win an NCAA championship on the women’s side is the three seed (it has happened just three times). No. 1 seeds have won it all 23 times, with No. 2 seeds being the next-highest at four titles.

And remember, you have until the games start tomorrow to sign up for Sportmoney’s free men’s NCAA Tournament pool. The top 5 finishers win money, and everyone in the top 15 gets a free year of Sportmoney’s daily coverage. Click here to join our pool for free. 

In today’s newsletter, Jack has his top 10 bets to watch, we look at the Xavier vs. Texas First Four matchup, give you a betting trend for each of the 11 NBA games, and profile the Kraken’s Chandler Stephenson against the Wild.

— Abe Rakov

A No. 1 Seed Won the National Title in 25 of the Past 39 NCAA Tournaments

By Jack Dougherty

Xavier -3 (-110 at Bet365)
Xavier is capable of making a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, and it starts with a First Four matchup against Texas. The Musketeers closed the season by winning eight of their past 10 games, and they rank 15th in the country in Bart Torvik’s power ratings this month. Texas, on the other hand, ranks 49th in that same span. It’s easier to trust the two-man game of Ryan Conwell and Zach Freemantle than the one-man show that is Tre Johnson. 

1 seed to win the NCAA Tournament (-310 at DraftKings)
A No. 1 seed has won the national title in 25 of the past 39 NCAA Tournaments, and this is the strongest crop of 1 seeds we’ve ever seen. All four 1 seeds enter March Madness with a KenPom net rating of at least +35, which is something only four previous teams have done since 2000. All four of those teams reached the Final Four and two won the championship. These odds imply a 1 seed will win the 2025 NCAA Tournament 75.6% of the time, but DraftKings’ futures odds give the four 1 seeds a combined 78.9% chance to win it all, so we’re getting some value here. 

Texas Tech to reach Sweet 16 (-145 at DraftKings)
Texas Tech is one of the best teams in the country when healthy. The Red Raiders rank seventh in KenPom’s efficiency ratings, putting them above teams like Michigan State, St. John’s and Iowa State. Texas Tech has knock-down shooters at every position to spread out defenses, and JT Toppin is the best player in this pod of four teams. Chance McMillian and Darion Williams, two key starters, were injured for Texas Tech’s Big 12 Tournament loss to Arizona, but they’re both expected to return for the NCAA Tournament. Assuming Tech takes care of UNCW, it would be about a four-point favorite against Missouri or a double-digit favorite against Drake.

VCU to reach Sweet 16 (+370 at FanDuel)
There always seems to be at least one 11 seed that makes a run in March, and VCU is a prime candidate this year. The Rams boast one of the most disruptive defenses in the country, ranking first in effective field-goal percentage allowed, second in opponent assist/turnover ratio, fourth in blocks per game and 23rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. That’s a problem for BYU, which prides itself on its shotmaking and ability to outscore opponents. If VCU can pull off the slight upset as 2.5-point underdogs, it’ll only be around five-point underdogs against Wisconsin, assuming the Badgers move on. 

NBA

Tyrese Haliburton to record 10+ assists (-136 at FanDuel)
Haliburton has been on fire as a distributor since the All-Star break, going over this line in nine straight games while averaging 12.2 assists per game. The Pacers point guard leads the NBA with 20.9 potential assists per game in that span. The Mavericks are playing at a much quicker pace since the Luka Doncic trade, so this should be a higher-scoring game with plenty of opportunities for Haliburton to reach double-digit dimes. 

76ers +10.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Philadelphia’s front office is attempting to tank to save their top-six protected draft pick, but the players don’t care about that. Without Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George, this is a young rotation filled with players who are fighting for a job, so the 76ers are accidentally playing the hardest and most inspired basketball we’ve seen from them all season. The Thunder are taking this one lightly, as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Lu Dort have already been ruled out. Isaiah Hartenstein and Cason Wallace are also listed as questionable, so this spread is too high for a Sixers team playing with a newfound swagger. 

Spurs vs. Knicks over 230 points (-110 at FanDuel)
The Spurs are a defensive disaster without Victor Wembanyama. San Antonio has given up 128.9 points per game over its past 10 contests, and it ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive rating (129.3) over that span. On the other side of the ball, the Spurs surprisingly rank second in the league in offensive rating (123.9) over their past five games The Knicks are still adjusting to life without Jalen Brunson, but they don’t even need him on the court to drop 125 against this Spurs team. 

Lakers moneyline (+102 at FanDuel)
This spread puts a ton of stock in Denver’s 8-2 record against the Lakers in their past 10 matchups, but only one of those games came with Luka Doncic on the court. That contest just happened to be a 23-point win for Los Angeles, as the Lakers held the fully healthy Nuggets team to just 100 points on 40.0% shooting. LA shouldn’t be a home underdog in this matchup even without LeBron James in the lineup. 

Golf: Valspar Championship

Michael Kim top-20 finish (+140 at FanDuel)
It’s time to consider buying the dip on Kim after he missed the cut by one stroke at the Players Championship. We’re willing to throw that to the side considering TPC Sawgrass can get the best of even the top players in the world, and Kim lost strokes from putting for the first time since January. Before the Players, the American finished fourth, T6, T13, T13 and T2 in his previous five starts, gaining strokes from putting and on approach in all five. Kim avoided the worst of the impending weather with an early-late tee time, and this is a good spot for a bounce-back performance.

Corey Conners top-20 finish (+170 at DraftKings)
Unlike Kim, Conners got the short end of the stick with his late-early tee time and could run into some nasty weather at Innisbrook. That pushed his top-20 odds out to +170, so we’ll look at the discount and hope the wind isn’t as strong as the forecast suggests. Conners has been on fire with back-to-back top-six finishes, and the difference has been his red-hot putting since switching to a mallet. Conners is such an elite ball striker that all he needs to do is putt at a mediocre level to contend in this field. 

Can UT Vindicate Selection Committee’s SEC Love in First Four Matchup with Xavier (-3)?

Texas made it to the play-in round of the NCAA Tournament on the strength of the SEC, which set a record with 14 teams selected. Only two teams finished below the Longhorns in the conference, as UT lost eight of its last 12 regular season games — only two of those losses came to ranked teams but three of the wins were against top 25 squads. Xavier finished the season winning seven of eight games.

• Spread: Xavier -3 (-110), Texas +3 (-110)

  • Xavier: 18-14, UT: 16-18

  • 59% of the money and 61% of the bets are with Texas

• Moneyline: Xavier -156, Texas +130

• Total (151.5): Over -115, Under -105

  • Xavier: 16-16, UT: 23-11

No. 11 Xavier (21-11) vs. No. 11 Texas (19-15)
9:10pm on truTV

Top Insights:

• Xavier is 10-3 against the spread in its past 13 games as the favorite

• The Longhorns are 4-11 in their past 15 games as an underdog

• The over hit in 12 of the past 13 Texas games

• UT’s Jordan Pope has gone over 9.5 points in 5 of his past 6 games (13.5 average)

• Xavier’s Ryan Conwell has 3+ three pointers in 5 straight games (4.8 average)

NBA: Wiggins’ Steals at Home, Westbrooks Points + Assists in Past 5 Games

• Mavericks (33-36, 14-20 Away) vs. Pacers (38-29, 20-9 Home): The under hit in the past 5 Pacers home games

• Rockets (44-25, 18-14 Away) vs. Magic (32-37, 18-16 Home): Jalen Green has 3+ three pointers in 5 straight games (4.0 average)

• Pistons (38-31, 20-15 Away) vs. Heat (29-39, 15-17 Home): Cade Cunningham has gone over 6.5 first quarter points in 5 straight games (8.6 average)

• Pelicans (18-51, 6-28 Away) vs. Timberwolves (40-30, 20-15 Home): Mike Conley has scored 8+ points in 7 straight home games (10.9 average)

• 76ers (23-45, 11-23 Away) vs. Thunder (56-12, 28-5 Home): Aaron Wiggins has at least 1 steal in 10 straight home games (1.4 average)

• Knicks (43-24, 21-13 Away) vs. Spurs (28-39, 17-16 Home): Devin Vassell has combined for 22.5 points + rebounds in 5 straight home games (30.8 average)

• Wizards (15-52, 8-26 Away) vs. Jazz (15-54, 8-26 Home): Collin Sexton went over 6.5 rebounds + assists in 6 of his past 7 games vs. bottom 10 defenses for rebounds allowed (10.1 average)

• Bulls (29-39, 16-17 Away) vs. Suns (32-37, 20-13 Home): Kevin Durant has 3+ turnovers in 7 straight games (4.3 average)

• Nuggets (44-25, 21-14 Away) vs. Lakers (42-25, 27-7 Home): Russell Westbrook combined for 16.5 points + assists in 5 straight games (25.6 average)

• Grizzlies (43-26, 18-15 Away) vs. Trail Blazers (30-39, 18-16 Home): Jaylen Wells has scored 3+ first quarter points in 8 of his past 9 road games (4.7 average)

• Cavaliers (56-11, 26-6 Away) vs. Kings (34-33, 17-15 Home): Jarrett Allen has at least 1 steal in 6 straight road games (2.2 average)

Stephenson Notched a Point in a Season-High 6 Straight Games for Kraken

Name: Chandler Stephenson
Team: Seattle Kraken
Position: Center
Today’s Matchup: @ Minnesota Wild
Season Stats: 11 goals, 36 assists, 65 shots in 67 games, -10

Past 5 Games

• @ Chicago: 1 assist, 1 shot

• vs. Winnipeg: 1 assist, 2 shots

• vs. Utah: 1 assist

• vs. Montreal: 2 assists

• @ Washington: 1 assist, 2 shots

Head-to-Head

• Stephenson has scored at least one point in six straight games, his longest streak of the season, but has struggled against the Wild this year. In November he didn’t get a goal, assist or shot in over 20 minutes of playing time, and in March he also got zeroed in over 17 minutes of time on the ice. Stephenson had under 19 minutes of playing time in five of his past six games, and even had 10 minutes in one, so his production has increased with decreased time on the ice.

In the News 

• The Vikings are reportedly sticking with J.J. McCarthy at QB rather than signing Aaron Rodgers.

• ESPN’s college basketball bracket expert ranked all 68 teams in the NCAA tournament.

• The AP profiled Duke star Cooper Flagg.

• Indiana lured West Virginia coach Darian DeVries to Bloomington to replace Mike Woodson.

• Tracking the NFL free agency updates.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs on TNT (followed by Kraken vs. Wild at 9:30pm)

• 7:30pm: Pistons vs. Head on ESPN (followed by Nuggets vs. Lakers at 10pm)

• 9:10pm: Xavier vs. Texas on truTV for an 11 vs. 11 First Four matchup

Photo of the Day