Trends for today's NCAA Tournament Games + NBA Bets to Watch

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Two double-digit seeds are favorites today

• Top 10 Bets: Rockets are giving up 107.1 points over their eight game winning streak

• Game of the Day: UNC last lost to an unranked team in January

• Betting Trends: Sooners are 7-0 against the spread in their past 7 games as the underdog

• Player to Watch: Banchero looks to bounce back from slow first game against Wizards

• Soccer Extra: Haaland has 38 goals in 39 games for Norway

• Overtime: The Celtics were sold for a record price

While there were upsets, the first day of the men’s NCAA Tournament wasn’t as dramatic as usual: There were only two games where teams finished within five points of each other.

Three double-digit seeds won yesterday: #12 McNeese (over Clemson), #11 Drake (over Mizzou), and #10 Arkansas (over Kansas). There are two double-digit seeds favored today: #12 Colorado State (-1.5) over #5 Memphis and #11 North Carolina (-1.5) over #6 Ole Miss.

In today’s newsletter, Craig has his top 10 bets to watch across the NBA and NCAA Tournament, and Chris looks at World Cup qualifying in Europe. We also analyze UNC’s chances against Ole Miss, give you a betting trend from each of today’s 16 NCAA Tournament games, and profile Paolo Banchero’s matchup against the Wizards.

— Abe Rakov

Richardson Upped his Scoring in Past 11 Games to 17.3 per Contest (Today’s Total is 16.5)

By Craig Williams

Parlay: V.J. Edgecombe 15+ points + 4+ rebounds (-149 at FanDuel)
Edgecombe is an eventual NBA Draft lottery pick, and he’s demonstrating the explosiveness and scoring ability that could lead him to being selected in the top five this summer. He averaged 16.6 points in conference play, and upped that mark to 17.8 points over Baylor’s final four games entering the tournament. He also demonstrated increased rebounding production as the season unfolded. Mississippi State isn’t a defensive juggernaut, and we like the explosive and electrifying Edgecombe to leave his mark this afternoon.

Kon Knueppel over 15.5 points (-125 at bet365)
Cooper Flagg is the main feature of this Duke team, but Knueppel is a projected lottery pick in his own right. He averaged 15.7 points in ACC play, a mark that increased to 16.2 points per game over the Blue Devils’ final 11 games (11-0). Duke is laying over 30 points in what is expected to be a Round 1 blowout, and we expect them to ease Flagg (ankle) back into action, opening additional opportunities for Knueppel to leave his mark in the scoring column.

Khaman Maluach over 7.5 rebounds (-125 at Fanatics)
We’re sticking with a Duke theme for one more play, and eyeing their 7-2 freshman to clean the glass. As we mentioned, Duke is laying over 30 points in what promises — on paper — to be a runaway Blue Devils victory. Duke ranks fourth in defensive rating, so we expect them to make things difficult on Mount St. Mary’s. Maluach finished the season averaging 10.2 rebounds over his final six games. And three of his seven double-digit rebound performances occurred over that final six-game stretch. 

Kasparas Jakučionis 2+ three-pointers made (-108 at FanDuel)
Xavier’s three-point defense has been a bit more porous in recent games, and we’re looking at Jakucionis to take advantage of some openings on the perimeter. Jakucionis leads the Fighting Illini in usage rate, points, and is virtually tied for the lead in shots per game. He struggled a bit from deep down the stretch, averaging 1.8 threes per contest over his final five. We’re considering Xavier’s three-point defense, however, and banking on Jakucionis to knock down a pair of treys in Illinois’ NCAA tournament opener.

North Carolina moneyline (-130 at ESPNBET)
The SEC has been propped up as the top conference in college hoops — and rightfully so — but we’re riding the red-hot Heels coming off of their destruction of San Diego State in their “first four” matchup. The theoretical plus in the Heels’ favor is the relatively small size of Ole Miss, specifically in the backcourt (where their top two players in terms of minutes per game are 6’1” and 5’11”). That suggests Tar Heels lead guard R.J. Davis will have the opportunity to deliver a strong followup to his 26-point performance (6-for-6 from three); and point guard Elliot Cadeau won’t be hounded at the point of attack by athleticism and length. The Heels are 8-2 straight-up and 9-1 against the spread over their past 10 — with both losses coming against Duke — while the Runnin’ Rebels finished 5-5 and 2-7-1, respectively.

Jase Richardson over 16.5 points (+100 at FanDuel)
Richardson, the son of former Michigan State Spartan and NBA Dunk Contest champion Jason Richardson, took off over the final third of the season once he was inserted into the starting lineup. He’s averaging 17.3 points per game over his past 11 games — a stretch in which the Spartans went 9-2. Michigan State is laying over 17 points against Bryant, so we’re anticipating a dominating performance from the Green & White, led in large part by the eventual top-10 NBA Draft selection.

NBA

Wizards +7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Prior to “winning by losing” against the Jazz, who are also locked into the Cooper Flagg Sweepstakes, the Wizards had produced offensive and defensive ratings closer to the middle of the pack in recent contests. They’re also 5-3 against the spread at home since the trade deadline. And while the Magic went 4-1 against the spread over their recent five-game road trip, they’re 15-20 against the spread on the road overall. We’re going to give ourselves a bit more cushion here thanks to the Wizards’ recent track record against the Magic, but we see them putting up a bit more of a competitive showing.

Rockets -5.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
The Heat are really struggling right now, especially on the offensive end of the floor — they rank 30th in offensive rating over their nine-game losing streak. Making matters worse for the host Heat is the Rockets’ own eight-game winning streak, and the No. 2 defensive rating they’ve produced over that span. They’ve allowed opponents to score an average of 107.1 points over their past eight, a figure that includes the 137 points they allowed to the Philadelphia 76ers in a shootout victory.

Timberwolves -13.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
The Wolves have dropped two straight, including an inexplicable loss to these Pelicans on Wednesday, but they still own the league’s No. 2 net rating across their past 10, a stretch over which they’re 8-2 straight-up and 6-4 against the spread. They’re playing well on both ends of the floor, ranking top six in defensive and offensive rating, plus they’re scratching and clawing for a top-six seed in order to avoid the play-in tournament. The Pelicans, their upset victory notwithstanding, don’t even want to win at this point (in theory). We don’t see the Pelicans pulling a second rabbit out of their hats tonight. 

76ers vs. Spurs over 240.5 points (-110 at Caesars)
If there’s one thing we can glean from the recent play of the 76ers and Spurs, it’s that they’re both struggling on the defensive end. The Spurs are 4-6 over their past 10, and sport the league’s 30th-ranked defensive rating over that span. The 76ers are 3.6 points better in that metric, but that still only lands them with the 28th-ranked defensive rating over their own 10 — a 2-8 stretch. Now, while the 76ers complement their poor defensive rating with a bottom-third offensive rating, the Spurs rank No. 1 in the league in that metric, and they’re coming off of a game in which they hung 120 points on the Knicks, who have played well on the defensive end of the floor in recent weeks. These two teams are a combined 15-4-1 to the over across their past 20 games, collectively. 

ACC vs. SEC Faceoff Sees #6 Seed Ole Miss (+1.5) as the Underdog, Bettors are with UNC

After blowing out San Diego State in a First Four matchup, UNC is favored in the Round of 64 against Ole Miss despite coming into the tournament as the most controversial selection.

• Spread: North Carolina -1.5 (-110), Ole Miss +1.5 (-110)

  • UNC: 16-20, Ole Miss: 16-17

  • 82% of the money and 72% of the bets are with Ole Miss

• Moneyline: North Carolina -120, Ole Miss +100

• Total (155.5): Over -115, Under -105

  • UNC: 17-16, Ole Miss: 19-17

#11 North Carolina (23-13) vs. # 6 Ole Miss (22-11)
4:05pm on TNT

Top Insights:

• The Tar Heels are 7-1 against the spread in their past 8 games as the favorite

• UNC’s Elliot Cadeau has stayed under 3 turnovers in 5 straight games (1.8 average)

• Ole Miss’s Malik Dia has at least 1 three pointer in 9 straight games (1.2 average)

• UNC’s RJ Davis has 3+ three pointers in 7 of his past 8 games (3.4 average)

• The Tar Heels’ Jae'Lyn Withers has stayed under 2 turnovers in 14 of his past 16 games (0.8 average)

NCAA Tournament: Queen’s Blocks for Maryland, Xavier’s Struggles ATS as the Underdog

• #9 Baylor (19-14) vs. #8 Mississippi State (21-12): Baylor’s Norchad Omier has gone over 13 rebounds + assists in 5 straight games (15.2 average)

• #15 Robert Morris (26-8) vs. #2 Alabama (25-8): Alabama’s Labaron Philon has at least 1 three pointer in 6 straight games (1.5 average)

• #14 Lipscomb (25-9) vs. #3 Iowa State (24-9): Iowa State’s Joshua Jefferson has 2+ steals in 8 of his past 9 games (2.8 average)

• #12 Colorado State (25-9) vs. #5 Memphis (29-5): Memphis’s Colby Rogers has at least 1 assist in 9 straight games (1.6 average)

• #16 Mount St. Mary's (23-12) vs. #1 Duke (31-3): Duke’s Kon Knueppel has scored 16+ points in 5 straight games (19.4 average)

• #10 Vanderbilt (20-12) vs. #7 Saint Mary's (28-5): Vanderbilt’s Chris Mañon has gone over 2.5 rebounds in 7 straight games (5.7 average)

• #11 North Carolina (23-13) vs. #6 Ole Miss (22-11): The over hit in 7 of the past 9 games when UNC was the favorite

• #13 Grand Canyon (26-7) vs. #4 Maryland (25-8): Maryland’s Derik Queen has at least 1 block in 7 straight games (1.4 average)

• #16 Norfolk State (24-10) vs. #1 Florida (30-4): UF’s Walter Clayton Jr. has scored 18+ points in 5 straight games (21.4 average)

• #14 Troy (23-10) vs. #3 Kentucky (22-11): Andrew Carr has at least steal in 5 straight games (1.2 average)

• #10 New Mexico (26-7) vs. #7 Marquette (23-10): Marquette’s David Joplin scored at least 14 points in 4 of his past 5 games (16.8 average)

• #13 Akron (28-6) vs. #4 Arizona (22-12): Arizona’s Caleb Love has stayed under 3 turnovers in 5 straight games (1.4 average)

• #9 Oklahoma (20-13) vs. #8 UConn (23-10): The Sooners are 7-0 against the spread in their past 7 games as the underdog

• #11 Xavier (22-11) vs. #6 Illinois (21-12): Xavier is 5-15 against the spread in its past 20 games as the underdog

• #15 Bryant (23-11) #2 Michigan State (27-6): The Spartans’ Jase Richardson has gone over 1.5 three pointers in 5 straight games (2.8 average)

• #12 Liberty (28-6) vs. #5 Oregon (24-9): Oregon’s Nate Bittle has collected 7+ rebounds in 5 straight games (9.0 average)

Banchero Scored 20+ Points in 11 Straight Games, 30+ in 3 of Past 4

Name: Paolo Banchero
Team: Orlando Magic
Position: Power Forward
Today’s Matchup: @ Washington Wizards
Season Stats: 25.3 points (44.5% FG), 7.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists

Past 5 Games

• vs. Houston: 31 points (47.6% FG), 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal

• @ Cleveland: 24 points (27.3% FG), 11 rebounds, 7 assists, 1 block, 1 steal

• @ Minnesota: 43 points (50.0% FG), 10 rebounds, 3 assists

• @ New Orleans: 34 points (63.6% FG), 11 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 steals, 1 block

• @ Houston: 25 points (43.5% FG), 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block, 1 steal

Head-to-Head

• Banchero has only faced the Wizards once this season, scoring 19 points on 5-12 shooting and adding 5 rebounds, 5 assists and 1 block on Feb. 23. It is the fewest points he’s scored in his past 16 games, but it was also the fewest minutes he’s played in his past 12 (30).

Looking Ahead to Saturday World Cup Qualifying Action

By Sam Farley

Moldova vs. Norway: Erling Haaland to score (-127 at DraftKings)

• Haaland has had another great goalscoring season despite Manchester City’s struggles — he’s scored 29 times for his club, including a goal this past weekend against Brighton

• The Norwegian has an incredible 38 goals in 39 games for his country, including seven in their six Nations League games this past fall, so he should feast against minnows Moldova.

Moldova vs. Norway: Norway/Norway — Halftime/Fulltime (+155 at Caesars)

• Moldova are one of Europe’s smallest soccer nations and have never qualified for a World Cup or European Championship (their last qualifying campaign saw them finish fourth behind Albania, Czechia and Poland)

• Norway’s golden generation of Haaland and Martin Odegaard might, this time, finally help them reach a tournament again — they topped their Nations League group in fall, losing just once, and should win here and score early

Czech Republic vs. Faroe Island: Patrik Schick to score (-111 at Bet365)

• Leverkusen’s Schick had a strong Euros for Czechia and followed that up with 23 goals for his club this season — he’s in good form and will relish a chance against a weak Faroes team

• The Faroe Islands are ranked 137th in the world rankings and lost both times they faced the Czechs in Euro 2024 qualifying: losing 1-0 and 3-0

In the News 

• The Celtics were sold for $6.1 billion, the highest-ever price for a North American sports franchise.

• Billionaire Dan Friedkin wants to bring the NHL to Houston.

• While McNeese knows its coach Will Wade is headed to NC State, they’re still happy they had him.

• Why did the 49ers lose so many players during free agency?

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 12:15pm: #9 Baylor vs. #8 Mississippi State on CBS

• 2pm: #12 Colorado State vs. #5 Memphis on TBS

• 3:15pm: #10 Vanderbilt vs. #7 Saint Mary’s on truTV

• 4:05pm: #11 UNC vs. #6 Ole Miss on TNT

• 7:25pm: #10 New Mexico vs. #7 Marquette on TBS

• 9:25pm: #9 Oklahoma vs. #8 UConn on TNT

• 9:45pm: #11 Xavier vs. #6 Illinois on CBS

Photo of the Day