LeBron's Game 2 Points Total is Set at 22.5, Mavs (+1) are Underdogs in Brooklyn

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: A less mad March Madness

• Top 10 Bets: Jokic could return tonight for the Nuggets (-3.5)

• Game of the Day: Timberwolves vs. Pacers 1 week later

• Betting Trends: DeRozan has gone over 3.5 assists in 12 of his past 13 games

• Player to Watch: JuJu Watkins has scored 20+ in 7 straight games

• Overtime: Where is Russell Wilson going to play next season?

After one of the least dramatic first four days of March Madness in recent memory (it’s the first time since 2007 that no 11 seed or worse made it to the Sweet 16), one of the most legendary coaches in the tournament has the only team that can almost qualify as a Cinderella — John Calipari’s 10th-seeded Arkansas Razorbacks. And UConn’s (closer than expected) loss means there will be a new champion this year.

There’s still a lot of college basketball to watch today, as there are eight women’s NCAA Tournament 2nd round games. Here is where FanDuel has the championship odds 1.5 rounds into the tournament: South Carolina (+210), UConn (+240), UCLA (+550), USC and Texas (+750), and Notre Dame (+850).

In today’s newsletter, Chris has his top 10 bets to watch across the NBA, tennis, and men’s NCAA Tournament futures. We also give you an in-depth look at the Timberwolves vs. Pacers, two betting trends for each of today’s seven other NBA games, and a profile of JuJu Watkins as USC plays their second round NCAA Tournament game.

— Abe Rakov

With Davis Set to Return Soon, Mavericks (+1) Could be Motivated for a Playoff Push

By Chris Farley

Timberwolves +2.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
At the start of the calendar year, the Pacers were very ordinary, just 16-18 with pedestrian marks on defense and not as potent as they were last year on offense. Fast forward to late March and Indiana is in fourth place in the Eastern Conference. They haven't been as exceptional lately though, presenting average marks (13th on offense, 13th in net rating), although they did beat the Timberwolves one week ago in overtime. A poor shooting night (Minnesota shot 45.4% overall, 31% from beyond the arc) led to an Indiana victory, but the T-Wolves have performed far better (3rd on offense, 2nd on defense) this month, and they enter tonight off two full days of rest.

Lakers -4 (-115 at Bookmaker)
LeBron James returned to the Lakers' lineup on Saturday, but it wasn't a pretty look. A resurgent Bulls' squad dominated the Lake-show in the second half, dropping 84 points in the final two quarters and annihilating L.A. by a 31-point margin. The Lakers' stars showed up — LeBron had 17, Luka had 34, and Austin Reaves had 25 points — but their defense looked lost. Fortunately, Chicago's blitzing attack will seem like a distant nightmare compared to Orlando's slow, struggling output. In March, the Magic rate 22nd in offensive efficiency and are averaging just 109.3 points per game. Embarrassed by their last loss, we expect the Lakers to take out their anger on an offensively-challenged opponent.

LeBron James over 22.5 points (-110 at Bovada)
James seemed a little gun-shy in his return, taking just 16 shots in 31 minutes and only attempting two long-balls, resulting in 17 points. We would be very surprised if he produced at the same level on Monday. Before his groin injury, James was on a tear. He averaged 29.3 points per game in February, leading his team to a 9-2 record, and then followed it up with 26 points per game in four March contests. Luka might be the newest, most exciting aspect to LAL's future, but LeBron is still the face of the franchise and leader of the team. After such a shameful outing two days ago, we love LeBron to come out far more aggressive.

Mavericks +1 (-110 consensus)
The market clearly feels that Brooklyn and Dallas are far more similar than they are different, and we agree. In March, the Nets are 26th on offense, while Dallas is 20th. On defense it's not much better: Dallas is 28th, Brooklyn is 18th. The real and perhaps the most important difference here is motivation. The Nets are seven games outside the play-in tournament, meaning their chances of making the playoffs are virtually zero. The Mavs, who have seen some good production from players like Spencer Dinwiddie and PJ Washington recently, are likely to bring back Anthony Davis soon, which will undoubtedly give the team a boost of hope and encouragement moving forward. Intangibles favor Dallas, and that's plenty for us to look their way.

Nuggets -3.5 (-110 consensus)
Are the Chicago Bulls finally turning into a formidable team? We're not sure if we're ready to say that just yet, but there's no doubt they're playing better. Net-rated 10th overall in March with the 11th-best offense in March, Chicago is on a 7-2 run, with some very impressive wins along the way. They beat Orlando, Miami, Indiana, Sacramento, and the Lakers in that span, by an 11-point average margin of victory. The only problem is that Nikola Jokic, arguably the NBA's best player, is slated to return on Monday, and the market hasn't responded as much as it should have. The Bulls have looked better, but the Nuggets are coming off an upset win at Houston and they get back their best player. Checkmate.

Men’s NCAA Tournament Futures

Houston to win the National Championship (+704 at Bookmaker)
Right now many teams not-named Houston are the talk of the town. The favorite to win it all, Florida is the #1 seed and kings of the SEC, a conference that's taking over college ball. The second favorite, Duke brings Cooper Flagg and a dangerous group of scoring talent. And then there's Houston, forgotten about by many and the third favorite, even though they've been arguably the most consistent program for half a decade. No team allowed fewer points this season, they're a dominant three-point shooting team (39.8%, 1st in the nation), they control the rim, and they're coached by one of the best. This is a fantastic value.

Alabama to win the National Championship (+2000 at BetOnline)
If we're going to look at a long-shot to win it all, the Crimson Tide fit the bill. Although flawed in some obvious ways (they allow 81.4 points per game, one of the worst marks in the country), Alabama scores more than any other offense (91.1 points per game), they're brilliant at utilizing their big men and creating easy two-pointers (60.2% in two-point percentage, 3rd in the country), and KenPom ranks their schedule as the toughest in college basketball this season. An offense that also ranks first in tempo, the hypersonic Tide can overwhelm and frustrate any opponent, and they get a nice matchup against BYU in the next round. 

Tennis: WTA Miami

Aryna Sabalenka wins 2-1 (+310 at FanDuel)
Danielle Collins is at her best in Miami. Announcing that she would retire after the 2024 season, Collins played so well that she prolonged her career into 2025. Now ranked 15th and on an eight match win streak in Miami (she won the event last year), the power-hitter looks as capable as ever. On the other side she'll meet a huge challenge in Sabalenka, the world's #1 player who's been disappointed by two straight losses in the finals at the two most recent big tournaments (The Australian Open and Indian Wells). Still, the Belarusian is a crisp 6-0 against Collins in her career, beyond worthy of our trust, but we also trust that Collins can make this a longer battle, just like she did in two of their past three clashes. 

Krueger to win a set (-175 at DraftKings)
Ashlyn Krueger might not be recognized in the same conversations as her top-10 opponent on Monday, but the rising star is a very dangerous opponent for anyone right now. In a very impressive performance, she outplayed 7th-ranked Elena Rybakina on Thursday, and then followed it up with a dominant win over Leylah Fernandez on Saturday, a veteran who's had far more success than the 20 year old. Zheng Qinwen, who's slowly starting to show the same top form that won her Olympic gold last summer, has not been tested yet in Miami. She's plenty good enough to win a set, but we don't see her holding off Kruger for two in a row. 

Gauff vs. Linette over 2.5 sets (+235 at DraftKings)
Magda Linette is playing with as much confidence as we've ever seen in her career. The Pole has been competing like her life depends on it, carrying a 74% first-serve win rate through three Miami Open matches, and she has yet to lose a set at the tournament. Coco Gauff is clearly one of the world's best players (currently ranked 3rd), but her form has been up and down in 2025, just 2-2 entering Miami. Since she's arrived, she's looked fantastic, although she hasn't been tested, either. Linette is a wily veteran, 33 years old and nearing the end of her career, and last time she battled Gauff she was beat down: 6-0, 6-4 last year in Wuhan. We expect a fierce effort from the underdog.

Pacers Beat Timberwolves in OT Last Week Without Haliburton (Who is Back for Tonight’s Game)

The Timberwolves have won 9 of 11 and are just a half game out of the last non-play-in playoff spot in the West. But one of those two losses came against a Haliburton-less Pacers team last week.

• Spread: Pacers -2.5 (-108), Timberwolves +2.5 (-112)

• Moneyline: Pacers -132, Timberwolves +112

• Total (231): Over/Under -110

Timberwolves (41-31, 20-15 Away) vs. Pacers (41-29, 23-9 Home)
7pm

Top Insights

• The Timberwolves are 7-3 against the spread in their past 10 games as the underdog

• Myles Turner has 2+ blocks in 5 straight home games (3.4 average)

• Jaden McDaniels combined for at least 20 points + rebounds in 14 of his past 17 games (24.4 average)

• Tyrese Haliburton combined for at least 32 points + rebounds + assists in 7 of his past 8 home games (37.9 average)

• Mike Conley has 2+ first quarter points in 6 straight road games (3.2 average)

Head to Head

• The Pacers won 132-130 in overtime when these two teams faced off a week ago in Minnesota. Indiana’s Obi Toppin, who averages just over 10 points per game, exploded for 34 points on 12 of 19 shooting and added 10 rebounds. The Pacers won despite Tyrese Haliburton being out with an injury. Anthony Edwards scored 38 points for the Timberwolves in the loss.

NBA: Grimes Racking Up Points + Assists, Giddey’s Blocks Streak

Lakers (43-27, 15-18 Away) vs. Magic (33-38, 18-17 Home)

• Luka Doncic has 8+ first quarter points in 5 straight games (15.8 average)

• Paolo Banchero has at least 40 points + rebounds + assists in 5 straight games (46.4 average)

Raptors (24-47, 8-26 Away) vs. Wizards (15-55, 7-26 Home)

• Khris Middleton has combined for over 13.5 points + rebounds in 7 straight games vs. bottom 10 defenses for points allowed (19.6 average)

• RJ Barrett has 5+ assists in 5 straight road games (6.4 average)

Mavericks (34-37, 14-21 Away) vs. Nets (23-48, 11-22 Home)

• Cameron Johnson has gone over 8.5 rebounds + assists in 5 of his -past 6 home games (11.2 average)

• Spencer Dinwiddie combined for at least 20 points + rebounds in 5 of his past 6 games (25.3 average)

76ers (23-48, 11-26 Away) vs. Pelicans (19-53, 12-23 Home)

• The under hit in 6 of the past 7 New Orleans home games

• Quentin Grimes had over 30.5 points + assists in 8 straight games (35.9 average)

Bulls (31-40, 18-18 Away) vs. Nuggets (45-27, 23-11 Home)

• Josh Giddey has at least 1 block in 6 straight games vs. bottom 10 defenses for blocks allowed (1.5 average)

• Christian Braun has committed at least turnover in 5 straight games vs. top 10 defenses for turnovers forced (1.6 average)

Bucks (40-30, 16-18 Away) vs. Suns (34-37, 22-13 Home)

• Kevin Durant has dished out 2+ first quarter assists in 7 straight home games (3.1 average)

• Brook Lopez combined for over 18.5 points + rebounds in 7 of his past 8 road games (23.0 average)

Celtics (52-19, 28-7 Away) vs. Kings (35-35, 18-17 Home)

• The over hit in 7 of the past 8 Sacramento games vs. top 10 scoring defenses

• DeMar DeRozan has gone over 3.5 assists in 12 of his past 13 games (5.7 average)

Watkins has 20+ Points in 7 Straight Games, Scored 22 in Just 28 Minutes in NCAA Round 1

Name: JuJu Watkins
Team: USC Trojans
Position: Guard
Today’s Matchup: vs. Mississippi State
Season Stats: 24.6 points (42.8% FG), 7.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists

Past 5 Games

• vs. UNC Greensboro: 22 points (47.1% FG), 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals

• vs. UCLA: 29 points (32.1% FG), 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 steals

• vs. Michigan: 20 points (41.2% FG), 11 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals

• vs. Indiana: 31 points (52.6% FG), 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 1 block

• @ UCLA: 30 points (45.5% FG), 3 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 3 blocks

Potential Bets

• 22.5 points: Over -122, Under -108

• 2.5 threes: Over +116, Under -154

• 6.5 rebounds: Over -138, Under +104

• 3.5 assists: Over +128, Under -172

In the News 

• Texas is reportedly hiring Xavier’s Sean Miller to be its next men’s basketball coach after firing Rodney Terry.

• USMNT coach Mauricio Pochettino says there’s still time to fix things before the World Cup.

• Former NFL head coach Ron Rivera is Cal football’s new general manager.

• The Giants could still add Russell Wilson this offseason.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 5pm: #5 Alabama vs. #4 Maryland in women’s NCAA Tournament action on ESPN2 (followed by #6 West Virginia vs. #3 North Carolina at 7pm)

• 7pm: Lakers vs. Magic on NBA TV

• 8pm: Minnesota Wild vs. Dallas Stars on ESPN+

Photo of the Day