Top 10 Bets to Watch Today + 25 NBA Trends and a Look at NFL Draft Odds

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: A look at NCAA Tournament regions

• Top 10 Bets: White averages 21.8 points with Tatum out for Celtics

• Game of the Day: Lakers have lost 5 straight road games

• Betting Trends: Barrett has 5+ assists in 5 straight road games

• Futures: Where the NFL Draft betting market stands

• Overtime: Two big NFL free agency signings

The Sweet 16 starts tomorrow, so to get you ready here are the current odds to win each region this weekend (via FanDuel):

• South Region: Auburn (-150), Michigan State (+300), Ole Miss and Michigan (+700)

• West Region: Florida (-135), Texas Tech (+270), Maryland (+500), Arkansas (+1000)

• Midwest Region: Houston (-115), Tennessee (+240), Kentucky (+650), Purdue (+700)

• East Region: Duke is such a heavy favorite that most sportsbooks currently don’t give odds for the region (for context: Duke is the overall favorite to win the national title at +220, and Alabama the next-best odds in the region at +1500)

In today’s newsletter, Jack gives you 10 bets to watch across the NBA and PGA Tour. We also have an in-depth preview at the Lakers vs. Pacers, two betting trends for each of the other five NBA games on the docket, and a look at NFL Draft odds.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. MLB Opening Day is tomorrow. Check out The Ringer’s power rankings.

Grimes is Averaging 41.6 Points + Rebounds + Assists over Past 7 Games

By Jack Dougherty

Quentin Grimes over 35.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120 at DraftKings)
Grimes’ usage has gone through the roof with Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George all sitting out for the Sixers. The shooting guard has cleared this line in six of his past seven games while averaging 41.6 points + rebounds + assists in that span. Now he gets to face an atrocious Wizards defense that gives up the fifth-most points (23.38), fourth-most rebounds (6.76) and seventh-most assists (5.40) per game to opposing shooting guards.

Jared Butler over 5.5 assists (+116 at FanDuel)
Speaking of Washington’s terrible defense, it has struggled to contain point guards all year. The Wizards give up the third-most assists per game to opposing point guards (9.74), and they’ve allowed Anthony Black, Isaiah Collier, Cameron Payne and Immanuel Quickley to all clear this line against them in their past four games. Butler has averaged 9.5 potential assists over his past 10 games, and this is a great opportunity to convert them in a fast-paced matchup with Jordan Poole guarding him for most of the night.

Taurean Prince over 9.5 points (+100 at DraftKings)
The Bucks are preparing to play their fourth straight game without Damian Lillard, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable to suit up on Wednesday night. Even if Antetokounmpo plays, this should be a busy night for Prince. The Nuggets give up the third-most points per game (23.87) and made threes per game (3.68) to opposing shooting guards. Prince’s primary job in this offense is to hang around the three-point line and knock down open shots off kick-outs, and Denver is vulnerable in that regard. 

Pacers vs. Lakers over 235 points (-110 at DraftKings)
The Lakers are struggling mightily on the defensive end of the floor right now. In two games since LeBron James returned to the lineup, Los Angeles gave up 146 points to the Bulls and 118 points to a Magic team that averages the fewest points per game and plays at the second-slowest pace in the league. The Lakers have the worst defensive rating in the NBA over their past three games (130.4), and it’s hard to see that improving against the red-hot Pacers. These teams combined to score 241 points in their first meeting this season, and that was without James and Luka Doncic on the court.

LeBron James over 14.5 rebounds + assists (-120 at DraftKings)
This is a bet based on usage, as James has quickly worked his way back to his usual workload with 31 and 38 minutes in his first two games following a groin injury. Assuming he’s back to his typical 35-40 minutes per game, this number is too low. James has averaged 9.4 rebounds and 6.6 assists in 13 games alongside Doncic. He’s also cleared this line in three straight games against the Pacers. Indiana likes to push the pace, which will give James more opportunities to stuff the stat sheet. 

Derrick White over 16.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)
Jayson Tatum is unlikely to suit up on Wednesday night, opening the door for a busy offensive game for White. In six games without Tatum on the court this season, White averages 21.8 points on 16.8 field-goal attempts per game. He’s cleared this line in five of those six contests. This is also a solid matchup against the Suns, which give up the seventh-most made threes per game to opposing shooting guards (3.57) and rank 26th in the NBA in defensive rating. 

Golf: Texas Children’s Houston Open

Min Woo Lee top-20 finish (+175 at FanDuel)
Lee has recorded six top-20 finishes in nine worldwide starts this year, which is surprising because most of the courses he’s played in 2025 are shorter, positional tracks that mitigate his advantage with the driver. Memorial Park, on the other hand, is a bomber’s paradise. Lee will be able to pump his driver on most par 4s and par 5 with little worry about finding trouble off the tee, and he’s one of the best chippers and putters on the PGA Tour. As long as the irons cooperate, which they have most of the season, this is a great spot for Lee to contend for a win. 

Jake Knapp top-20 finish (+300 at FanDuel)
This price is an overreaction to Knapp’s missed cut in his last start at the Valspar Championship. The American struggled with his accuracy off the tee and had his worst chipping week of the season at Innisbrook, but this is a much better course fit for him. Before missing the cut at the Valspar, Knapp finished T12, T6, T25 and T17 in his previous four starts and gained strokes on approach in six straight. We’re willing to write off his missed cut as an abnormally bad week in what’s been a strong season for the 30-year-old. 

Tournament matchup: Stephan Jaeger > Jacob Bridgeman (-115 at FanDuel)
Bridgeman is coming off a tough loss at the Valspar Championship in which he entered the final round tied for the lead and got outplayed by Viktor Hovland on Sunday. That makes two near-wins in his past four starts, and that frustration could bleed into his play this week. Bridgeman has played well on shorter courses this year, but he missed the cut at Torrey Pines and finished T34 at Vidanta Vallarta, two driver-heavy courses that more closely resemble Memorial Park. Jaeger won this tournament last year and finished T9 the year before, and he always plays his best golf on longer tracks with generous fairways.

Top South Korean: Si Woo Kim (+120 at FanDuel)
It’s surprising to see Sungjae Im priced as the favorite in this market. The 26-year-old has two missed cuts and only one top-30 finish in his last six starts, and he ranks 171st on the PGA Tour this season in strokes gained on approach. It’s hard to score when your iron game is struggling as much as Im’s is right now, and there haven’t been any signs of turning it around. Kim, on the other hand, has gained strokes on approach in four of his past five starts, and he finished T17 at Memorial Park last season. K.H. Lee is the only other South Korean in the field, but he’s missed the cut in five straight starts.

Lakers Head to Indianapolis Losers of 5 Straight on the Road and 7 of 10 Overall

The Pacers have won five in a row and climbed to the four seed in the East after winning 7 of 10. The Lakers are struggling, having lost 7 of 10 after an eight-game winning streak, and find themselves in fifth in the West and just three games up from a play-in spot.

• Spread: Lakers -1 (-108), Pacers +1 (-112)

  • LAL: 39-31-1, IND: 31-38-2

  • 68% of the money and 67% of the bets are with the Lakers

• Moneyline: Lakers/Pacers -108

• Total (235): Over/Under -110

  • LAL: 35-36-0, IND: 37-33-1

Lakers (43-28, 15-19 Away) vs. Pacers (42-29, 24-9 Home)
7:30pm on ESPN

Top Insights

• Tyrese Haliburton has dished out 10+ assists in 8 straight home games (12.2 average)

• Luka Doncic has gone over 9.5 first quarter points in 6 straight games (15.0 average)

• Aaron Nesmith scored 3+ first quarter points in 5 straight home games (5.0 average)

• Gabe Vincent has at least 1 assist in 11 of his past 12 road games (1.5 average)

• Austin Reaves combined for at least 25 points + rebounds in 7 of his past 8 games (31.6 average)

Head to Head

• When these two teams faced off in February, the Lakers earned a surprising 124-117 win. The difference this time around is LeBron and Luka will be on the court. In that contest, Austin Reeves exploded for 45 points and added seven rebounds and seven assists. Rui Hachimura chipped in 24 points on 8-13 shooting. The Pacers were led by Pascal Siakam, who had 23 points, six rebounds, four assists and two steals, and Tyrese Haliburton, who added 19 points and nine assists.

NBA: Lopez is Avoiding Turnovers, Haliburton’s Assist Streak at Home

Wizards (15-56, 8-28 Away) vs. 76ers (23-49, 12-22 Home)

• Jordan Poole had 4+ assists in 5 of his past 6 games vs. bottom 10 defenses for assists allowed (4.8 average)

• Alex Sarr scored over 4.5 first quarter points in 4 of his past 5 road games (7.4 average)

Raptors (25-47, 9-26 Away) vs. Nets (23-49, 11-23 Home)

• RJ Barrett has gone over 4.5 assists in 5 straight road games (6.4 average)

• D'Angelo Russell combined for at least 2 steals + blocks in 7 of his past 8 games vs. bottom 10 defenses for blocks allowed (2.5 average)

Clippers (40-31, 15-20 Away) vs. Knicks (45-26, 24-11 Home)

• Kawhi Leonard has at least 29 points + rebounds in 6 straight games (34.2 average)

• Norman Powell has stayed under 2.5 three pointers in 5 straight games (0.8 average)

Bucks (40-31, 16-19 Away) vs. Nuggets (45-28, 23-12 Home)

• Russell Westbrook has at least 1 steal in 8 straight games (1.9 average)

• Brook Lopez has stayed under 2 turnovers in 19 straight games vs. top 10 defenses for turnovers forced (0.6 average)

Celtics (53-19, 29-7 Away) vs. Suns (35-37, 23-13 Home)

• Derrick White grabbed 4+ rebounds in 7 of his past 8 games (5.1 average)

• Al Horford has gone over 14.5 points + rebounds in 5 of his past 6 road games (18.7 average)

Cam Ward is the Heavy Favorite to Go 1st in the NFL Draft, Abdul Carter is Betting Choice for 2nd

Cam Ward is currently -1200 to be the first pick in this year’s NFL Draft, which is currently held by Tennessee. According to ESPN, while the Titans could still trade the pick if they get a great deal, they are more interested in Ward now.

Abdul Carter (+600) has the next-best odds to go #1 on FanDuel, followed by Travis Hunter (+3400) and Shedeur Sanders (+4000). There’s a little more intrigue in the Draft’s 2nd pick, which the Browns hold: Carter (-135), Sanders (+185), Hunter (+600), Ward (+1000), and Jaxson Dart (+2800).

• First wide receiver: Tetairoa McMillan (-300), Matthew Golden (+200), Emeka Egbuka (+950)

• First tight end: Tyler Warren (-750), Colston Loveland (+450)

• First offensive lineman: Armand Membou (-270), Will Campbell (+210), Kelvin Banks Jr. (+850)

• First defensive lineman: Mason Graham (-600), Shemar Steward (+1000)

• First defensive back: Jahdae Barron and Will Johnson (+115), Nick Emmanwori and Malaki Starks (+750)

In the News 

• Stefon Diggs is headed to the Patriots and Russell Wilson is going to the Giants.

• Damian Lillard has a blood clot in his right calf and will be out for an indefinite amount of time.

• The younger Pitino is leaving New Mexico to become the next head coach at Xavier, where he will be in the same conference as his dad.

• The number of pitching injuries is adding up at all levels of baseball.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: Kent State vs. Loyola Chicago in an NIT quarterfinal on ESPN2 (followed by UAB vs. UC Irvine for another quarterfinal matchup at 9pm)

• 7:30pm: Lakers vs. Pacers on ESPN (followed by Celtics vs. Suns at 10pm)

• 7:30pm: Devils vs. Blackhawks on TNT (followed by Stars vs. Oilers at 10pm)

Photo of the Day