Sweet 16 Bets to Watch + NBA Analysis and MLB Awards Futures

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: MLB player awards odds to start the season

• Top 10 Bets: Auburn is 3-7 against the spread over their past 10

• Game of the Day: Knicks beat Bucks by an average of 28 in 2 matchups

• Betting Trends: Kentucky’s Otega Oweh has at least 1 steal in 11 straight games

• Player to Watch: Towns averages 31 points vs. Milwaukee this season

• Overtime: The 25 best players in the women’s Sweet 16

Yesterday we took a look at team odds as the MLB season began, and today we’re giving you a rundown of the players’ awards market (via FanDuel). The Royals stick out here, as they have the AL MVP favorite in Bobby Witt Jr., and pitcher Cole Ragans is third in Cy Young odds.

• AL MVP: Bobby Witt Jr. (+280), Aaron Judge (+300), Gunnar Henderson (+950), Corey Seager (+1200)

• NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani (+145), Juan Soto (+550), Fernando Tatis Jr. (+850), Mookie Betts (+1000)

• AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet (+380), Cole Ragans (+850), Logan Gilbert (+950)

• NL Cy Young: Paul Skenes (+210), Zack Wheeler (+600), Blake Snell (+1400), Corbin Burnes (+1600)

• AL Rookie of the Year: Jasson Dominguez (+450), Kristian Campbell (+500), Cam Smith (+600), Jackson Jobe (+850)

• NL Rookie of the Year: Roki Sasaki (+320), Dylan Crews (+340), Matt Shaw (+410), Bubba Chandler (+750)

In today’s newsletter, Craig gives you his 10 bets to watch across the NCAA Tournament, NBA and MLB. We also have a preview of the injury-marred Knicks vs. Bucks matchup, three betting trends for each of today’s four men’s Sweet 16 matchups, and a look at Karl-Anthony Towns’ dominance of Milwaukee this season.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. All the favorites won in Sweet 16 games yesterday. Read the takeaways from CBS Sports.

Michigan State is 9-1 Straight Up and ATS Heading into Sweet 16 Matchup vs. Ole Miss

By Craig Williams

Ole Miss under 70.5 points (-118 at FanDuel)
Michigan State is 9-1 straight-up and against the spread over their past 10, so we like their current form. “Survive and advance” is the name of the game, so we can’t speak negatively about Ole Miss, but we’re siding with the green and white. The Spartans were one of the top defensive teams this season, and they’re still playing at a high level on that end of the floor. They’ve played to the under in eight of their past 10, and have also held eight of their past 10 opponents below 70 points.

Michigan State moneyline (-165 at bet365)
It’s worth reiterating what we like about Michigan State at the moment. They’re 9-1 over the past 10, both straight up and against the spread, plus they’re playing a stingy brand of defense. They also enter play with the statistical advantage on the offensive end of the floor. On paper, it’s reasonable to project Michigan State controlling the game thanks to their advantage on both ends of the court. Finally, while Friday’s matchup will be on a neutral court, Michigan State has done better (8-2) away from their home floor than Ole Miss has (5-6).

Jase Richardson over 14.5 points (-114 at FanDuel)
Richardson struggled in Michigan State’s Round of 32 win in addition to their February 4 loss to UCLA, his final game before joining the starting lineup. In between, he delivered 12 strong performances, averaging 17.1 points and going over 14.5 points eight times. He still attempted 10 shots against New Mexico, including five from deep. He just couldn’t find the bottom of the net. We expect the eventual NBA lottery pick to bounce back tonight with a strong performance in the points column.

Kentucky +4.5 (-110 at Caesars)
We have to respect Kentucky’s 2-0 record against Tennessee, but we’re also accepting the old cliche here: It’s incredibly difficult to beat the same team three times in one season. Tennessee (8-2) and Kentucky (7-3) are both playing well straight-up over their past 10, so this isn’t a case of one team being in vastly superior form than the other. Both teams know each other very well, and those types of matchups often deliver close and competitive contests.

Michigan +9.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Auburn may still look like a team destined for the Final Four, but they haven’t looked the part of a dominant force of late — not if you focus on their 3-7 record against the spread over their past 10. Michigan, meanwhile, is playing well, winning seven of 10 and going 6-4 against the spread. Auburn’s Johni Broome will need to go up against another tree on the inside. He managed to pull down 12 boards against Creighton and Ryan Kalkbrenner, but he struggled his way to only eight points. Michigan’s Vladislav Goldin is 7-1, 250 pounds, and he’ll force Broome to defend as well. 

Parlay: Auburn moneyline + Tennessee moneyline (-122 at DraftKings)
We like Auburn and Tennessee to both be locked into difficult games, matchups that result in losses against the spread. Auburn, in spite of their 3-7 mark against the spread over their past 10, has not given us reason to doubt their ability to advance deeper into March (and perhaps April). Meanwhile, Kentucky would have to beat Tennessee for a third time this season, an incredibly difficult task to pull off no matter the sport. The Volunteers have only lost to Florida over their past six games. 

Purdue vs. Houston under 132.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
Houston enters play laying points as a relatively comfortable favorite, so it’s not unreasonable to anticipate this game being played at the Cougars’ pace. And they’ve leaned into their defense over their recent stretch of dominance — 10-0 straight up and 3-7 to the under over their past 10. Houston finished the season with the game’s best defensive efficiency, and they’ve been just as stingy in recent contests. Purdue is running into a defensive buzzsaw, and even though they were a top-10 offensive team this season, they’ve scuffled in the efficiency department of late.

MLB

Kyle Freeland under 4.5 strikeouts (-150 at DraftKings)
We’re considering both volume and efficiency in this spot. Freeland is nothing close to a strikeout artist. He had a 6.8 K/9 and 17.3% strikeout rate in 2024. He stayed under five strikeouts in 14 of 21 starts last season, and 20 of 29 starts in 2023. On paper, guys like Freeland need to face a lot of hitters in order to slowly accumulate strikeouts. How deep will Colorado allow Freeland to pitch in Game 1 of the season?

Astros under 2.5 runs in first five innings (-160 at DraftKings)
Tylor Megill isn’t the pitcher Mets backers expected to get the ball in Game 2, but don’t be surprised if he performs better than expectations. Megill was sent down after his June 29 start last season, but he found a groove to finish the season. He posted a 2.75 FIP and 1.13 WHIP over his final six starts (31 innings), and punched out 36 batters across those frames. Pitchers are generally ahead of hitters at this point, so even if we manage our expectations regarding Megill in general, we’re bullish on his ability to deliver a respectable outing against an Astros lineup that will be adjusting to life without Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker.

NBA

Knicks vs. Bucks under 220.5 points alternate (-150 at DraftKings)
The Knicks and Bucks are both operating without their standout point guards, obviously a serious factor we’re considering ahead of their matchup. The Knicks have played 10 games since losing Jalen Brunson, and they rank 19th in offensive rating over that span. They rank 10th in defensive rating though, which aligns with their improved defensive play over recent weeks. The Bucks have stayed under in three of the four games they’ve played without Lillard, and we suspect Tom Thibodeau and the Knicks will be happy to dig in and win on the defensive end of the floor.

Knicks Have Two Blowout Wins Over Buck this Season, But Can They Do it Without Brunson?

The big question for tonight’s matchup is the status of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who missed the Bucks’ last game with a sprained left foot. We know that Jalen Brunson and Damian Lillard will be out. The Knicks have clinched a playoff berth and are 2.5 games up on the Pacers in third in the East, while the Bucks are just a half a game behind the Pistons for the fifth spot.

• Spread: Knicks -1 (-108), Bucks +1 (-112)

  • NYK: 32-28-2, MIL: 37-35-1

  • 58% of the money and 53% of the bets are with the Knicks

• Moneyline: Knicks -110, Bucks -106

• Total (219): Over/Under -110

  • NYK: 38-33-1, MIL: 35-38-0

Knicks (45-27, 21-15 Away) vs. Bucks (40-32, 23-12 Home)
8pm

Top Insights

• Brook Lopez has stayed under 1.5 turnovers in 5 straight games (0.8 average)

• OG Anunoby had over 1.5 steals + blocks in 9 of his past 10 games (3.1 average)

• Taurean Prince has at least 1 steal in 10 of his past 11 games (1.5 average)

• Josh Hart has gone over 0.5 steals in 7 of his past 8 games (1.6 average)

Head to Head

• The Knicks have won in two home blowouts against the Bucks so far this year, a 116-94 win in November and a 140-106 victory in January. Brunson dropped 44 points in that January meeting, so tonight’s matchup will obviously have a different feel.

NCAA Tournament: Brea’s Threes for Kentucky, Michigan State ATS as the Favorite

#6 Ole Miss (24-11) vs. #2 Michigan State (29-6)

• Michigan State is 7-1 against the spread in its past 8 games as the favorite

• The Spartans’ Jase Richardson had 2+ assists in 6 of his past 7 games (2.9 average)

• Ole Miss’s Malik Dia has gone over 0.5 three pointers in 10 of his past 11 games (1.2 average)

#3 Kentucky (24-11) vs. #2 Tennessee (29-7)

• Kentucky’s Koby Brea has at least 2 three pointers in 7 straight games (3.0 average)

• Tennessee’s Zakai Zeigler combined for over 21.5 points + rebounds + assists in 5 straight games (27.8 average)

• The Wildcats’ Otega Oweh has at least 1 steal in 11 straight games (1.8 average)

#5 Michigan (27-9) vs. #1 Auburn (30-5)

• Auburn’s Denver Jones has gone over 12.5 points + assists in 5 straight games (15.0 average)

• Michigan’s Tre Donaldson has combined for at least 8 rebounds + assists in 5 straight games (10.2 average)

• The Tigers’ Miles Kelly has at least 1 assist in 11 of his past 13 games (1.4 average)

#4 Purdue (24-11) vs. #1 Houston (32-4)

• Purdue’s Trey Kaufman-Renn has scored 18+ points in 5 straight games (25.2 average)

• Houston’s L.J. Cryer had at least 1 steal in 6 of his past 7 games (1.3 average)

• The Boilermakers’ Braden Smith has gone over 5.5 assists in 6 of his past 7 games (7.9 average)

Points Total for Towns is 1.4 Below 10-Game Average, 5.5 Under Season Average vs. Bucks

Name: Karl-Anthony Towns
Team: New York Knicks
Position: Center
Today’s Matchup: @ Milwaukee Bucks
Season Stats: 24.6 points (52.5% FG), 12.9 rebounds, 3.2 assists

Past 5 Games

• vs. Clippers: 34 points (55.0% FG), 14 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals

• vs. Mavericks: 26 points (52.6% FG), 12 rebounds, 11 assists, 1 steal

• vs. Wizards: 31 points (50.0% FG), 11 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block, 2 steals

• @ Hornets: 24 points (47.6% FG), 10 rebounds, 3 assists

• @ Spurs: 32 points (52.4% FG), 9 rebounds, 2 assists

Head to Head

• Towns averaged 31 points on 61.6% shooting in two games against Milwaukee this season, adding 14.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists — marks that are all well above his season averages.

Potential Bets

• 25.5 points: Over -118, Under -112

• 11.5 rebounds: Over -112, Under -118

• 2.5 assists: Over -180, Under +134

• 40.5 points + rebounds + assists: Over/Under -114

In the News 

• The 25 best players in the women’s Sweet 16.

• Former Tennessee football coach Jeremy Pruitt is suing the NCAA for $100 million, saying he was a “sacrificial lamb.”

• ESPN’s take on what happened in Day 1 of the men’s Sweet 16.

• Has NIL made it impossible for Cinderellas in the NCAA Tournament?

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 2:30pm: North Carolina vs. Duke in the women’s Sweet 16 on ESPN

• 7:09pm: Ole Miss vs. Michigan State on CBS

• 7:39pm: Kentucky vs. Tennessee on TBS/truTV

• 8pm: Suns vs. Timberwolves on NBA TV

• 9:39pm: Michigan vs. Auburn on CBS

• 10:09pm: Purdue vs. Houston on TBS/truTV

Photo of the Day