Healthy Lakers (-5) Favored Over Streaking Rockets + Wizards' Bad Form and MLB Bets to Watch

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Early Final Four odds

• Top 10 Bets: Bulls are 8th in net rating over past 14 contests

• Game of the Day: Rockets scored 148 yesterday, play Lakers (-5) today

• Betting Trends: Monk dished out 3+ assists in 18 of his past 19 road games

• Player to Watch: Booker has led Texas in scoring in 10 of past 14 games

• Overtime: The Yankees hit 13 home runs in 2 games

The men’s NCAA Tournament has gone full chalk: All four No. 1 seeds are headed to the Final Four for only the second time in history — it also happened in 2008. Duke (+110) remains the favorite to win the title, followed by Florida (+270). Houston and Auburn are both at +450.

Florida starts the week as 2.5-point favorites over Auburn, and 67% of the early spread bets are with the Gators. Duke begins as a 4.5-point favorite against Houston, with 76% of the spread bets with the Blue Devils.

In today’s newsletter, Chris gives you 10 bets to watch across the NBA, women’s NCAA Tournament and MLB. We also have a preview of the red-hot, and underdog, Rockets vs. the Lakers, two betting trends from each of the day’s seven other NBA games, and a look at No. 1-seeded Texas’s Madison Booker’s recent scoring run as the Longhorns take on TCU in the women’s Elite 8.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. If you want to read some fun chaos, check out ESPN’s annual NFL mock draft where they propose trades for all 32 picks.

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Wizards Sport a -16.4 Point Differential in Past 8 Games Against Playoff Contenders

By Chris Farley

Jazz vs. Hornets over 219.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
When you have two teams as bad as the Jazz and Hornets and the season has only a few weeks left, it's easy to leave such games off your betting card. To demonstrate just how bad it is, over their past seven games both outfits are bottom five on both offense and defense — with only two wins between the two outfits. But as bad as their offense has been, the defenses are allowing a phenomenally bad 241.6 combined points per game, and few programs allow as many shot attempts per game (Utah allows 95, which is dead-last, and Charlotte allows 91, which is 25th overall). Contests like this usually end up being a competition between young, hopeful players, and no one wants to get injured. The scoreboard never had a better setup.

Heat -8.5 (-110 consensus)
All it took was one rallying effort to beat Jimmy Butler and the Warriors and suddenly the Heat look like a different team. Since the tipoff of their eventual 112-86 beat down of Golden State, Miami ranks 4th on offense and defense, the NBA's #1 net rated program over its past three contests. Sure, they haven't beaten any elites (ATL, PHI), but lord knows their next opponent might be even worse. The Wizards have been getting pummeled by any team with a pulse, displaying a -16.4 point differential against eight playoff programs (or contenders) in March. Last time they faced Miami, they lost by 16, and this version of South Beach's own is playing much better basketball. Fire away!

Chicago +15 (-105 at DraftKings)
The Chicago Bulls have been a perplexingly proficient team for a long time now. In March, over 14 contests, Chicago ranks 8th in net rating, boasting the 13th-best offense and defense, balanced enough to obtain a 9-5 record and place themselves comfortably in the play-in tournament. In fact, with a mostly agreeable schedule to finish the season, the Bulls could be in the 7th or 8th spot before the two-game tournament begins. In any event, on Monday they face the class of the West, a Thunder team that hasn't slowed down one bit (nine-game winning streak, no big deal), but OKC has clutched the #1 seed and Chicago is an unfamiliar opponent. We understand the inflation, but this is too many points.

Lakers -5 (-105 at BetOnline and Bookmaker)
The Rockets are riding high. They've won 11 out of their past 12 and sit in 2nd in the West, but we'd be remiss to not recognize their strength of schedule during March. Along those past 12 games, they've faced mostly mediocre or poor opponents: Utah, Philadelphia, Chicago, Dallas, Phoenix, and New Orleans, etc. Their only loss — at home against the Nuggets, easily the best outfit they faced in that span. Regardless, Houston has played great, but the Lakers offer a different challenge. Houston's defense ranks just 14th over their past seven, and a healthy Lakers' squad is very dangerous; we saw plenty of proof after the All-Star break into early March. As great as the Rockets have played, this is a much better spot for the Lake-show, while Houston will be coming off a road back to back.

Women’s NCAA Tournament

TCU +7.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
Hailey Van Lith and the TCU Horned Frogs will take on Texas in the women's Elite Eight, a battle that brought post-game tempers the last time these squads played. Texas is almost solely predicated by their interior scoring when on offense, with stars like Madison Booker enabling a group that puts up 80 points per game. With their sterling, stingy defense (allowing just 55 points per game this season), they own the second-best point-differential in the country. Van Lith and her squad are no joke, though, well-balanced and allowing only a few ticks more (57.6 to opponents). Oddsmakers have this total low, and the animosity between two Texas programs means this should be closer than advertised.

UConn -13.5 (-110 consensus)
The Huskies’ rich legacy has taken a step back in recent seasons, with other schools winning the past seven titles. But since 2009, no other program has done it more than UConn, winning six total championships. They're in a great position to do it again. Anchored by the magnificent play of Paige Bueckers, who scored 40 in their recent romp over Oklahoma, the Huskies are on an incredible run. They've beat their last 13 opponents by a staggering average margin of 34 points per win. Of course USC is no slouch, but they lost JuJu Watkins last week, their best player, and it's shown (they were down 30-28 against Kansas State in a slim Sweet 16 victory). UConn is simply playing too well, and we see Beckers and company pulling away in the second half.

MLB

Red Sox vs. Orioles over 9.5 runs (-105 at Caesars and Bovada)
Right now, with a very limited sample size, at least some of our projections should be based on what teams did in 2024. On Monday, Boston and Baltimore will roll out two left-handed, mostly underperforming throwers. Baltimore's Cade Povich, a 24 year old who has little experience in the majors, looked very mediocre in brief stints last season (5.2 ERA in 79 innings). On the other side, Sean Newcomb has only pitched in 52 innings over the past three seasons, with even more bothersome marks (6.3 ERA, 1.8 home runs/9 innings in 2024). Boston and Baltimore were both top-10 teams against lefties last season, sporting top-6 marks in home runs (59) to boot. Windy, unpredictable conditions may quell some hitting, but we expect runs to come in drones at a certain point.

Marlins moneyline (+168 at BetOnline)
The Mets are loaded with hitting talent, but when will we see it in full force? Scoring only five runs in three contests, the Mets are due to regress positively and we're confident we'll see it eventually. Juan Soto, who leads the team with three hits and two RBIs, will attempt to spark their offense against Cal Quantrill, a guy who hasn't been great the past two seasons (combined 5.11 ERA), but looked like a potential star in his first two years with Cleveland. The Mets roll out David Peterson on Monday, in his prime and with a great track record against Miami (4-2 with a 2.80 ERA and 44 strikeouts in his career). It's a good setup for New York, but Miami has more confidence and they're at home at a bargain price; waiting for the Mets' regression is unwise at this price.

Giants vs. Astros first five innings under 4.5 runs (-118 at BetOnline)
The Giants and Astros are both 2-1, but that's not as much because of their hitting. On Houston's side, they're hitting at a .176 clip through three games, all at home against good-not-great Mets' pitching. The Giants aren't far behind, presenting a .214 batting average, although they have managed 14 runs and five home runs through three contests. Most of those runs came late (aka after the 5th inning). In any event, we like the throwers on Monday. Ronel Blanco (HOU) is coming off a fantastic 2024 (2.80 ERA in 2024, 83.6% left on base percentage), while Jordan Hicks (4.10 ERA in 2024) is fresh off his first year as a starter. He showed great poise and allowed under 1 home run (0.98) per nine innings last season. We expect another slow start for these two programs. 

MLB Futures

Yankees win the World Series (+900 at Caesars)
We're only three games into MLB's regular season, but it's plain to see how dangerous the Yankees can be this year. Against a weaker American League, they're a virtual lock to make the playoffs, assuming they don't incur any more serious injuries. Gerrit Cole is already out for the season, while Carlos Stanton (out indefinitely), Luis Gil, and Clarke Schmidt are all starting the season banged up. Still, in just their second outing, the Yankees broke a record by slamming nine home runs in a single game, including a home run on three first pitches. They have arguably their best defensive roster in decades, with plenty of young talent (like Jasson Dominguez) and solid depth to keep the runs coming. It's early, but this is a nice price for a team that's likely the Dodgers' only real threat.

Rockets Have Won 12 of Past 13 Games But Are Still Underdogs (+5) Tonight at the Lakers

Rockets (49-26, 22-14 Away) vs. Lakers (45-29, 28-9 Home)
10pm on TNT 

• Spread: Lakers -5 (-112), Rockets +5 (-108)

  • LAL: 40-32-2, HOU: 39-34-1

  • 51% of the money and 56% of the bets are with the Rockets

• Moneyline: Lakers -180, Rockets +152

• Total (225): Over -108, Under -112

  • LAL 37-37-0, HOU 38-35-1

Top Insights

• Austin Reaves combined for at least 30 points + rebounds + assists in 10 of his past 11 games (38.3 average)

• Amen Thompson went over 21.5 points + rebounds in 7 straight road games (27.0 average)

• Rui Hachimura has grabbed at least 1 first quarter rebound in 16 straight home games (2.6 average)

• Dillon Brooks has scored 10+ points in 16 of his past 17 games (15.4 average)

• Gabe Vincent has gone over 5.5 points in 10 of his past 11 games (10.0 average)

Head to Head

• The teams have only faced off once this season, a 119-115 win for the Rockets in Houston, but it was before the Luka-AD trade. Jalen Green led the Rockets with 33 points and Amen Thompson added 23 points and 16 rebounds. AD led the Lakers in scoring, with LeBron James and Austin Reaves each chipping in 21 points — they each had a double-double, as James added 13 rebounds and Reaves dished out 10 assists.

NBA: Christie’s First Quarter Points, Monk’s Assists on the Road

Jazz (16-59, 7-29 Away) vs. Hornets (18-56, 11-26 Home)

• Miles Bridges has 2+ first quarter rebounds in 11 of his past 12 home games (3.2 average)

• Isaiah Collier has gone over 5.5 assists in 11 of his past 12 road games (7.8 average)

Kings (36-38, 17-19 Away) vs. Pacers (43-31, 24-10 Home)

• Myles Turner has at least 6 rebounds in 6 straight home games (8.5 average)

• Malik Monk dished out 3+ assists in 18 of his past 19 road games (6.8 average)

Clippers (42-32, 17-21 Away) vs. Magic (36-39, 20-18 Home)

• The Magic are 2-10 against the spread in their past 12 games vs. top 10 scoring defenses

• Norman Powell has made at least 2 three pointers in 10 of his past 11 road games (3.0 average)

Heat (33-41, 14-22 Away) vs. Wizards (16-58, 7-29 Home)

• Washington is 1-7 against the spread in their past 8 games

• Alex Sarr has at least 1 block in 10 of his past 11 home games (1.7 average)

Celtics (55-19, 31-7 Away) vs. Grizzlies (44-30, 25-12 Home)

• Ja Morant has scored 20+ points in 11 straight games (28.0 average)

• Zach Edey has at least 1 assists in 8 straight games (1.5 average)

Bulls (33-41, 19-18 Away) vs. Thunder (62-12, 32-5 Home)

• Nikola Vučević has combined for at least 28 points + rebounds + assists in 10 straight games vs. bottom 10 defenses for rebounds allowed (38.9 average)

• Jalen Williams scored 20+ points in 8 of his past 10 games (23.0 average)

Nets (24-51, 13-26 Away) vs. Mavericks (37-38, 20-16 Home)

• Naji Marshall has at least 9 rebounds + assists in 5 straight home games (15.8 average)

• Max Christie scored over 1.5 first quarter points in 16 straight home games (4.1 average)

Longhorns’ Booker Scored Above Season Average (16.4) in 5 of Past 6 Games

Name: Madison Booker
Team: #1 Texas Longhorns
Position: Forward
Today’s Matchup: #2 TCU Horned Frogs
Season Stats: 16.4 points (46.5% FG), 6.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists

Past 5 Games

• vs. Tennessee: 17 points (40.0% FG), 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 1 block

• vs. Illinois: 20 points (50.0% FG), 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 steals

• vs. William & Mary: 20 points (72.7% FG), 14 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal

• vs. South Carolina: 10 points (30.8% FG), 10 rebounds, 3 steals

• vs. LSU: 25 points (52.6% FG), 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 1 block

Potential Bets

• 17.5 points: Over -118, Under -112

• 6.5 rebounds: Over -136, Under +102

• 24.5 points + rebounds: Over -118, Under -112

In the News 

• The tush push could actually get banned by the NFL.

• Novak Djokovic lost to a 19 year old in the Miami Open final.

• The Yankees have 15 home runs in their first three games, which is leading to questions about their new “torpedo” bats.

• The Lakers conducted a study to see if more players avoid sitting out with injuries when they play the Lakers.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3pm: Utah vs. Butler on FS1 in the first of four back-to-back 1st round games of the College Basketball Crown — a new men’s postseason tournament in Vegas that aims to fill in gaps during Final Four week

• 7pm: Texas vs. TCU in women’s Elite 8 action on ESPN (followed by UConn vs. USC at 9pm)

• 7:30pm: Celtics vs. Grizzlies on TNT (followed by Rockets vs. Lakers at 10pm)

Photo of the Day