Sixers Need Big Night from Embiid to Avoid Elimination in Philly

The Clippers looked ready for Cancun in a blowout home loss last night, with Paul George, James Harden, and Russell Westbrook combining for 28 points while a hurt and under-the-weather Luka Doncic scored 35 all on his own. The Mavericks have outscored the Clippers by 48 points in the past seven quarters and take a 3-2 series lead back to Dallas.

In today’s newsletter, Chris is tracking big performances from Jalen Brunson and Joel Embiid in an elimination game in Philly, and for a fast-paced shootout in Indianapolis. Craig has our MLB coverage, and he’s looking for Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi to bounce back against the Nationals and the Marlins to rack up hits in an early game against the Rockies. If you’re in Miami and want to skip work this afternoon, there are $2 tickets available.

• The Bucks finally showed signs of life in game 5, rising to the occasion at home without their two stars. Speculation is swirling that Giannis or Lillard could return sooner than later. While their studs remain doubtful tonight, that instills hope in a Milwaukee roster that looked dead-to-rights after game 4. Backs against the wall and hopeful to finally get at least one of their stars back, the Bucks are in fight-mode and even at Indiana can ride their newfound momentum early. Bucks First Half +5.5 (-118 at FanDuel)

• The Pacers have been great throughout their series against the Bucks, but they've been lethal at home. Most of that is because of their nonstop attack-mode style. In game 3 they only shot 43% from the field and 26.5% from beyond the arc, and they still scored 111 points in regulation. In game 4 they shot 51% from the field and dropped 126 on the scoreboard, scoring 67 in the first half. In response to their last loss and low point-total (92), expect an early explosion from the home-team. Pacers First Half Team Total over 57.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

• Pascal Siakam's point prop has dropped far too low, although it makes sense why. After two prolific games versus Milwaukee to start the series (36 and 37 points), Siakam has settled down and scored just 42 points in the last 3 contests. Back home and now intent on revenge after a loss, Indiana will likely depend on the experienced and reliable power-forward, who led the charge when Indiana looked their best in this series. P. Siakam over 22.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)

• As good as the Pacers' offense has been all season, they're better at home. They move even faster in front of their fans, rated #1 in tempo (102.29) through 41 games. Back at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse after scoring just 92 points in their last outing, it's more likely that the Bucks will be chasing the lightning quick Pacers for four quarters. An away underdog facing elimination usually means many free throws in the final minutes, too. Bucks/Pacers over 214.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

• There are many reasons to like the under tonight between New York and Philly. In two straight games the total fell far below 200 points in regulation, a sign of a series that's only getting more physical. The animosity is building between players and fans, and the urgency, will feel like a game 7 since the Knicks would hate to extend this series any longer and the home team is in jeopardy of elimination. Expect every shot to be challenged. Knicks/76ers under 200.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)

• Following a slow start to the series, Jalen Brunson has exploded in the last 3 battles, putting up 39, 47, and 40 points on his arch-rival. He was sensational in two games at the Wells Fargo Center, scoring at a 48% clip in game 3 and 53% clip in game 4, showing more poise than his colleagues in the town where he played college ball. Oddsmakers expect regression tonight (the under is juiced at most sportsbooks), but there's no reason to think he'll slow down. J. Brunson over 33.5 points (+100 at DraftKings)

• Speaking of a player on fire, Tyrese Maxey was the reason Philly survived two nights ago, splashing a logo-3-pointer with only seconds left in regulation and piling up 46 points on the Knicks in game 5. But the zig-zag theory applies in prop-betting, too, especially when a team has two prominent stars. Expect the Knicks to prepare a tougher defensive plan for Maxey, and for that to reset Philly's focus on Joel Embiid, who should have a bigger presence after a mediocre 19-point game on Tuesday. J. Embiid over 47.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-112 at DraftKings)

• The Mets present a challenging matchup for the Cubs' young right-hander Ben Brown in a number of respects. They’re one of six teams with a sub-20% strikeout rate and own a top-10 contact rate. They leave plenty to be desired in their contact quality, but Brown’s metrics — bottom 1% in exit velocity (96.0 mph), xwOBA on contact (.473), hard hit rate (64.6%) — suggest he may take care of that for them. Mets over 4.5 runs (+125 at DraftKings)

• We’re leaning heavily on qualitative analysis when Carlos Rodon takes the hill for the Yankees. This is the type of game for which the Bombers signed Rodon — the chance to split a pivotal road series against a divisional foe. This matchup against Baltimore is certainly tough on paper, but Rodon has completed six-plus innings of quality ball in three of four starts. Look for him to take this opportunity to demonstrate his temporary position as staff ace. Carlos Rodon over 16.5 outs recorded (-120 at DraftKings)

• Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi has been uncharacteristically wild over his last two outings, walking 11 across 11.1 innings after issuing six total free passes in his four preceding starts. He has a 6.9% career walk rate, in line with the 6.3% mark he posted over those first four turns. The Nationals trend toward contact overall, so Eovaldi should be able to avoid deep counts, long innings, and an early hook. Nathan Eovaldi over 18.5 outs recorded (-109 at Caesars)

• The Astros had a modest three-game winning streak snapped last night, but facing off against Guardians left-hander Logan Allen will put them in position to start a new one. Houston owns the seventh-best OPS versus southpaws, meanwhile Allen has allowed six homers in six starts and completed fewer than six innings in five of them. Logan Allen over 3.5 earned runs (+110 at Caesars)

• It doesn’t favor Allen that the lefty swinging duo of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker crush southpaws. Meanwhile, ‘Stros starter Spencer Arrighetti has taken serious lumps himself. He’s not pitching quite as poorly as his 10.97 ERA and 2.34 WHIP suggest, but the Guardians — 19.9% strikeout rate (5th lowest) and 79.2% contact rate (7th highest) — will counteract Arrighetti’s ability to miss bats (12.67 K/9) and force him to execute consistently throughout his start. Astros vs. Guardians over 5.5 runs first 5 innings (-106 at FanDuel)

• The Marlins fly to Oakland following today’s 12:10 pm start, but we’re backing them and Edward Cabrera nonetheless. Cabrera’s underlying metrics suggest he’s pitching better than his surface stats indicate, and the Rockies’ weaknesses play into Cabrera’s power-pitching strengths (on paper at least) — they swing and miss frequently, chase at a high rate, produce an OPS that is 50 points lower on the road, and own the league’s worst xwOBA. Marlins most hits (-145 at FanDuel)

• It’s fun to occasionally eye a player to go yard. We like the Red Sox’s Tyler O’Neill against Giants left-hander Kyle Harrison in this spot. O’Neill has three home runs over his last nine games, and hits lefties well (career .845 OPS). Harrison kept the home run column clean over his last two starts, but he’s a flyball pitcher taking the hill at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. It wouldn’t be a shock to see O’Neill send one over the “Monstah.” Tyler O’Neill home run (+320 at FanDuel)

IN THE NEWS