Insights for Game 6 of Warriors vs. Rockets + Two Derby Scratches and MLB Bets to Watch

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: The Run for the Roses

• Bets to Watch: Rockets won 1st quarter in 4 of 5 games in the series

• Game of the Day: 57% of the money is with Golden State today

• Overtime: Inside the Browns’ decision to draft Sanders

There are Game 6s in the NBA and NHL playoffs today, MLB is in full swing and the WNBA kicks off its preseason tonight, but the biggest event of the weekend is the Kentucky Derby. Post time for The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports is set for 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday.

One of the top contenders, Bob Baffert’s Rodriguez, was scratched due to a bruised foot. Rodriguez opened at 12-1 but had moved to 6-1. Baeza (21-1) will take his spot in the field. Todd Pletcher's Grande, who had risen up to 10-1, was also scratched because of a foot issue. This will be the first time in 21 years that Pletcher isn’t fielding a Derby horse and the first time in 18 years that jockey John Velazquez doesn’t have a seat at the Derby.

We’ll have full coverage of the 151st edition of the race tomorrow morning, but as of now, Journalism is the 3-1 favorite to win, followed by Sandman (5-1), Sovereignty (9-1) and 89-year-old D. Wayne Lukas’s American Promise (12-1).

In today’s newsletter, Craig gives you his top bets to watch and we break down tonight’s Rockets vs. Warriors Game 6. And make sure to read ESPN’s story about why the Browns finally decided to draft Shedeur Sanders.

— Abe Rakov

3 of 5 Games in Rockets vs. Warriors Series Finished Under the Total

By Craig Williams

Warriors moneyline (-230 at DraftKings)
This is less about statistics and more about backing the championship mettle of the Warriors. Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler have extensive Finals experience, so there’s nothing they haven’t seen or experienced when it comes to the ebbs and flows of a playoff series, and how to put away an opponent. And that includes winning a closeout game at home after being blown out on the road — as they did in 2022 against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Warriors -5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
The Warriors and Rockets have been enjoying elevated degrees of chippiness throughout the series, including Game 5 in which the Warriors suspected Dillon Brooks of going after Stephen Curry’s ailing thumb. It’s not so much that we foresee the Warriors treating this as a “revenge spot,” but especially with Jimmy Butler in tow, they have the ability to respond and “retaliate” through elevated focus and execution. It’s a level of play we expect to give the Rockets trouble throughout the duration of the contest.

Rockets +1.5 first quarter (-105 at bet365)
The Rockets are a feisty bunch, and we expect them to open tonight’s game with a little bite. They’ve won the first quarter in four of the five games this series, which coincides +1.9 average first-quarter margin they posted throughout the regular season, good for fifth in the league. We expect the Rockets to throw the first punch — they don’t have much of a choice as they face elimination. But just as key in this equation is the chance for this to be a contest heavily weighted towards defense, something that will, in theory, allow the Rockets to keep things close over the opening 12 minutes.

Rockets under 99.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
We expect the Warriors to make the necessary adjustments after allowing the Rockets to hang 131 on the scoreboard in Game 5. The Warriors produced a slightly stingier defensive rating at home, and it’s reasonable to expect them to be firing on all cylinders with the opportunity to close out the series in front of their fans. Three of the five games in this series have finished under, and the Warriors have held the Rockets below 100 points twice as well. Given the situation — not to mention the opportunity to make a statement — we won’t be surprised to see them do so once again. 

MLB

Yankees moneyline (-200 at Fanduel)
We’re backing the Yankees to take the series opener against the Rays behind lefty Max Fried, who is living up to his title as co-ace. It’s reasonable to expect that Fried will have the requisite offensive support behind him. The Yankees boast league-best marks in OPS, ISO, and wOBA, fueling their 10-5 home record. On paper, the offensive firepower combined with Fried’s sharp form should allow them to take care of business tonight.

Max Fried under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-175 at DraftKings)
The Rays are struggling against southpaws thus far, posting bottom-7 marks in ISO and wOBA. They also enter with a .646 road OPS (compared to .721 at home). Fried, meanwhile, has been as-advertised for the Yankees, surrendering three earned runs across 33 April frames. He held the Rays to zero runs on two hits across 7.2 innings on April 20. He’s induced 23 groundball outs over his past two starts, including against the Rays, a trend that should allow him to keep the Rays quiet.

Cardinals +1.5 (-162 at Fanduel)
The Cardinals have a few factors working in their favor tonight as they open their series against the Mets, who hit the road after finishing their home series versus the Diamondbacks. They’re 10-5 at home compared to the Mets, who are 8-8 away from Citi Field; and they’re sending ace Sonny Gray to the hill, who has a streak of three straight quality starts, including against the Mets on April 20. The Mets enter having dropped 2 of 3 amidst bullpen struggles.

Mets vs. Cardinals under 4.5 runs first 5 innings (-140 at Hard Rock Bet)
We like Sonny Gray, who carries the weight of being the ace of the staff. He’s surrendered more than three earned runs in only one of his six starts. The Mets’ bats have picked up some of late, but we’re not ready to treat them like a high-powered offense. Meanwhile, Clay Holmes has been very effective, particularly over his past two turns — including a six-inning, one-run performance against the Cardinals —  in which he demonstrated more efficiency.

Warriors (-5.5) Favored at Home to Close Out Series vs. Rockets

No. 2 Rockets vs. No. 7 Warriors
9pm on ESPN
(GSW lead 3-2)

• Spread: Warriors -5.5 (-110), Rockets +5.5 (-110)

  • GSW: 44-42-2, HOU: 46-40-1

  • 57% of the money and 51% of the bets are with the Warriors

• Moneyline: Warriors -230, Rockets +190

• Total (206.5): Over/Under -110

  • GSW: 44-44-0, HOU: 46-40-1

*Stats in Playoffs

Game-by-Game Player Stats

• Game 5: Rockets won 131-116 at Houston

  • Rockets

    • Leading scorers: VanVleet (26), Thompson (25), Brooks (24)

    • Leading rebounds: Sengun (9), Green (8), Adams and Thompson (6)

    • Leading assists: Sengun (9), Thompson (3), four with 2

  • Warriors

    • Leading scorers: Moody (25), Knox (14), Curry (13)

    • Leading rebounds: Moody (9), Key (7), Butler (5)

    • Leading assists: Curry (7), Podziemski (4), six with 2

• Game 4: Warriors won 109-106 at Golden State

  • Warriors

    • Leading scorers: Butler (27), Podziemski (26), Curry (27)

    • Leading rebounds: Green (8), Butler and Podziemski (5)

    • Leading assists: Butler (6), Podziemski (5), Payton II (4)

  • Rockets

    • Leading scorers: Sengun (31), VanVleet (25), Thompson (17)

    • Leading rebounds: Sengun (10), Thompson (9), Adams (7)

    • Leading assists: VanVleet (6), Sengun (5), Smith Jr. (3)

• Game 3: Warriors won 104-93 at Golden State

  • Warriors

    • Leading scorers: Curry (36), Hield (17), Payton II (16)

    • Leading rebounds: Post (12), Green (8), Curry (7)

    • Leading assists: Curry (9), Green and Post (4)

  • Rockets

    • Leading scorers: VanVleet (17), Sengun (15), Brooks (13)

    • Leading rebounds: Sengun (11), Thompson (7)

    • Leading assists: Green (5), Sengun and Thompson (4)

• Game 2: Rockets won 109-94 at Houston

  • Rockets

    • Leading scorers: Green (38), Sengun (17), Brooks (16)

    • Leading rebounds: Sengun (16), VanVleet and Eason (6)

    • Leading assists: Sengun (7), Green (6), Thompson (3)

  • Warriors

    • Leading scorers: Curry (20), Moody and Post (12)

    • Leading rebounds: Curry and Green (5), Looney and Hield (4)

    • Leading assists: Curry (9), Looney (3), Kuminga (2)

• Game 1: Warriors won 95-85 at Houston

  • Warriors

    • Leading scorers: Curry (31), Butler (25), Podziemski (14)

    • Leading rebounds: Podziemski (8), Butler (7), Green and Curry (6)

    • Leading assists: Butler (6), Podziemski (5), Green and Curry (3)

  • Rockets

    • Leading scorers: Sengun (26), Brooks and Smith Jr. (11)

    • Leading rebounds: Adams (12), Sengun and Thompson (9)

    • Leading assists: VanVleet (7), Thompson (6), Sengun and Green (2)

In the News 

• Why the Browns finally decided to draft Shedeur Sanders.

• Tom Izzo will serve as Michigan State’s co-interim athletic director while the school looks for a replacement.

• MLB umpires are calling fewer strikes at the edges of the zone this season.

• Ranking the worst current quarterback situations in the NFL.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: Wings vs. Aces in WNBA preseason action on ION (followed by Sky vs. Team Brazil at 9pm)

• 7:15pm: Dodgers vs. Braves on MLB Network

• 8pm: Jets vs. Blues on TNT

• 9pm: Rockets vs. Warriors on ESPN

Photo of the Day