With a Chance to Close Out the Clippers, Will it be Luka or Kyrie Taking Charge for the Mavs?

After a relatively slow start against the Sixers in the first two games of the series, Knicks guard Jalen Brunson has put up historic numbers. He’s the first player in 31 years to score at least 39 points in four playoff games in a row. The last player to accomplish the feat? Michael Jordan. Brunson scored 41 points and added 12 assists to close out the Sixers last night, leading ESPN’s Jay Williams to say, "I really think Jalen Brunson is going to go down as one of the greatest Knicks, if not the greatest Knick ever."

On tap for the weekend are more NBA and NHL playoff matchups, the Kentucky Derby, the Miami Grand Prix, Canelo Álvarez defending his undisputed super middleweight title, and a lot of MLB action.

In today’s newsletter, Chris is covering two elimination games: The Cavs are trying to be the first team to win a road game in the series and finish off the Magic, and the Mavs can end their series at home against the Clippers. We’re looking for a trio of stars to step up with big scoring nights: Donovan Mitchell, Kyrie Irving and Paul George. And in MLB, Malcolm is tracking Giants starter Jordan Hicks’s strikeouts and is expecting a slugfest in the Dodgers vs. Braves game tonight.

• On the one hand, Donovan "Spida" Mitchell hasn't performed as well away from home against the Orlando Magic, stacking up only 31 points in two games in their current series and scoring 47 points in two affairs in the regular season — both below his average this year (26.6 ppg). But the Cavs have a chance to knock off Orlando tonight and move on, and Mitchell is the Cavs' unquestioned leader with the most big-game experience. Positive regression is more probable than the books suggest. D. Mitchell over 25.5 points (-102 at DraftKings)

• We already know the Magic are a better offensive team at home — they put up 112 and 121 points in two games in this series. And the Cavs will look to avenge two awful offensive performances (172 combined points in two games at ORL). A potential elimination game also brings on factors that aren't as prominent in other contests, like a barrage of free throws in the fourth quarter and an urgency to push the pace and score on every possession. This number is too low. Cavs/Magic over 199.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

• In Orlando's first game at home in this series, they walloped the Cavs 61-45 in the first half. While we can't always expect history to repeat itself, there are plenty of reasons to believe the Magic will come out hot on Friday. The Magic were more efficient from the field and out-rebounded the Cavs in game 5, and they even held a lead for most of the fourth quarter. Late gaffes on both sides of the court allowed Cleveland to surge ahead, but expect the best out of Orlando early. Magic 1H -1.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

• Yesterday we deployed the "zig-zag theory" in prop betting and it worked like a charm, as Joel Embiid answered the call after a big game from Tyrese Maxey. Luka Doncic took over in game 5 for the Mavericks, scoring 35 points and earning 10 assists and 7 rebounds in a huge win for Dallas. Back home where Kyrie dropped 40 on the Clippers' defense in game 4, expect Luka's extra attention to free up Uncle Drew for a bigger performance. K. Irving over 25.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)

• The Clippers' assembly of star talent makes one question how operational such a roster is in these moments, and they certainly still miss Kawhi Leonard. Still, eight points is a ton in a game where a team as star-heavy as LAC is facing elimination. Ty Lue's squad looked awful in game 5, eventually giving up a 30-point margin in an embarrassing loss. But after a poor performance (like game 3), Paul George and his supporting cast tend to step up. This spread looks too inflated. Clippers +8 (-110 at DraftKings and Bet365)

• Speaking of Paul George, the Clippers' star and #1 scorer without Kawhi had another clumsy showing in game 5, scoring just 15 points on 4/13 from the field. The Dallas defense was menacing, but PG was out of sorts all game on Wednesday, struggling to find a rhythm opposite Luka's constant scoring. After PG's last poor performance (7 points in game 3), he answered with a 33-point explosion in game 4. He should be LAC's answer again tonight. P. George over 24.5 points (-102 at DraftKings)

• The Clippers are one of the most prolific offenses in the NBA, rated 4th overall even with their constant injuries and inconsistencies in the win-loss column. Dallas is at home and should be fine offensively, but a hot start from the underdogs should be expected after such a despicable 93 points in game 5. It's not easy to consider after such an awful performance by the Clippers in game 5, but it's situations like this that warrant taking a step back and look at what teams showed us all season. Clippers/Mavs 1Q over 51.5 (+100 at FanDuel)

• Cubs starter Hayden Wesneski has allowed just one run over 10 innings this season, with a strong ground ball tendency. On the other side, righty Joe Ross has struggled for the Brewers, giving up six earned runs in two of his last three starts. He’s only gotten out of the 6th inning once this year. Ross has also had issues with control, as evident from his high walk rate. The Cubs, having recently split a tough series against the Mets, have shown resilience and consistency, and have a 10-3 record at Wrigley. Cubs Moneyline (-124 at FanDuel) 

• Rockies righty Cal Quantrill, despite a subpar ERA of 5.34 and a WHIP of 1.50, enters a matchup where both teams have had trouble scoring. The Rockies and Pirates are hitting poorly, with the Pirates averaging just .189 and scoring 2 runs per game in their last seven. Quantrill has a history of low-scoring games in this odds range. Under 8.5 Total Runs (-118 at FanDuel)

• Cole Irvin boasts an ERA of 3.49 and a WHIP of 1.24 for the Orioles, and faces a Reds team hitting only .201 against lefties. Cincinnati starter Hunter Greene, despite a respectable ERA of 3.63 and a high strikeout rate of 29.2%, has seen his team lose consistently in his starts at home. Baltimore’s success against right-handers, coupled with Greene’s home record, paints a favorable picture for the Orioles. Baltimore Moneyline (-110 at FanDuel)

• Charlie Morton, despite historical challenges against the Dodgers, is pitching well for the Braves this year with a 3.60 ERA. Gavin Stone, while holding a 4.68 ERA for the Dodgers, has had quality starts in two of his last three appearances. But we are dealing with two offenses that can score in a hurry. With both teams featuring potent offenses and recent high-scoring games, we’re looking for runs here. Over 9.5 Total Runs Scored (-102 at FanDuel)

• Phillies starter Aaron Nola faces a Giants team that excels against right-handers, complicating his efforts to go deep in today’s game. San Francisco's higher-than-average pitches per plate appearance and their ability to get on base frequently could challenge Nola. Only two right-handed starters have gone over this line against the Giants this season. Aaron Nola Under 18.5 Outs (-160 at DraftKings) 

• San Fransisco’s Jordan Hicks has maintained a low ERA of 1.69, placing him 6th among qualifying starters, and has a high strikeout rate. He has allowed two or fewer runs in every game he’s pitched this year, so the Phillies might need a few innings to catch up to his pitches. Nola has given up runs in the first in just two of his six starts this year for Philadelphia. No Runs First Inning (-135 at FanDuel) 

• Following a dominant nine-strikeout performance, Hicks's reliance on his split-finger fastball, particularly effective against a Phillies lineup struggling with this pitch, suggests a continuation of high strikeout games. His strikeout rate and recent form give him a good shot to carry over some of that magic he displayed in his last start. J. Hicks Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-156 at FanDuel) 

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