Fierceness Moves to 7/2, Forever Young Surges to 6/1 for the 150th Kentucky Derby

The 150th running of the Kentucky Derby is today, with Fierceness remaining the favorite. Trained by Todd Pletcher with John Velazquez as jockey, Fierceness starts from the No. 17 post at 7/2 (+350 at FanDuel). No horse has ever won the Derby from Post No. 17 — the only position to never have a winner.

Sierra Leone follows at 5/1 (+500) from the No. 2 post, with Forever Young surging to 6/1 this morning (+600 from No. 11), Catching Freedom at 7/1 (+700 from No. 4) and Just A Touch at 11/1 (+1100 from No. 8). If you’re looking for a Bob Baffert horse today you’re out of luck, as his Churchill Downs suspension was extended through the end of 2024.

Post time is 6:57 p.m. ET and there’s a 24% chance of rain.

In today’s newsletter, we’re covering the beginning of round 2 of the NBA Playoffs, though round 1 doesn’t end until tomorrow’s Cavs/Magic game 7 in Cleveland. There’s only one game on the docket today, and Jason thinks the Wolves’ first round win wasn’t a fluke. In baseball, Craig is looking at good matchups for the Nats and Mariners. And in soccer, Sam has some great research on yellow cards in the Wolves/Man City game and can’t find a reason to say that Messi won’t score tonight.

• The Minnesota Timberwolves scored 132.6 points per 100 possessions in consecutive games against the Suns to close out their first-round sweep. The offense added at least 37.2% of offensive rebounds in three of the four games and got to the foul line at a super high rate all series. On the other hand, the Nuggets never scored more than 123.9 points per 100 possessions and ultimately trailed the Lakers for the majority of their first-round series. Minnesota should continue to surprise as this second-round series begins. Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

• Again, the Timberwolves were very efficient offensively to begin the playoffs: Minnesota added at least 120 points in three of the four matchups. The Timberwolves played well defensively in their home games, but it was a different story on the road. Minnesota gave up at least 109 points in back-to-back road games. They allowed the Suns to get to the foul line at a high rate and didn’t rack up turnovers as they did earlier in the series at home. Timberwolves vs. Nuggets OVER 207.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

• Mike Conley dished out seven assists in three of the four games in the first-round playoff series. He contributed seven assists in both road matchups and averaged 6.3 assists per game to begin the playoffs. Conley has averaged about six assists per game this season and had 5.3 assists per game against the Nuggets in four regular season games this year. However, one of the many reasons why the Timberwolves have been so efficient offensively is Conley’s ability to be a leader at point guard. He’s ultimately the glue for Minnesota. If you like the Over and Minnesota to at least cover, then you should also like Conley to earn at least six assists tonight. Mike Conley OVER 5.5 Assists (-120 at FanDuel)

• The Rockies are not shy about swinging and missing, and Pittsburgh’s Jared Jones has demonstrated an ability to miss bats (31.8 K%, 11.12 K/9). When the Rockies do make contact, they’re not making quality contact — especially away from home. The Pirates are far from a juggernaut offensively, and they’re mired in a nasty slump themselves, losing eight of 10, including five in a row while scoring seven runs total over that span. Rockies vs. Pirates under 7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

• To put it plainly, Phillies starter Ranger Suarez has been absolutely stellar. While he isn’t dominant in the strikeout department, he misses his fare share of bats and induces plenty of soft contact. The Under hit in each of Suarez’s last five starts. Meanwhile, sinkerballer Keaton Winn takes the hill for the Giants, so we’re also considering what cool, damp conditions could mean for the bats against two groundball pitchers. Phillies vs. Giants under 7.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

• The Astros and Mariners are throwing their aces, with Framber Valdez and Logan Gilbert, respectively, toeing the rubber. Offense isn’t an issue for the ‘Stros — they’re fifth in xwOBA and their .738 OPS versus right-handers ranks eighth. But pitching has been the calling card for the first-place Mariners up to this point, and Gilbert is more than doing his part, pitching beyond the sixth inning in five of six. We’re looking for another strong outing where he keeps the Mariners close. Mariners +0.5 first 5 (-135 at FanDuel)

• Twins righty Pablo Lopez has an inflated 4.83 ERA, but several of his secondary metrics indicate he’s pitching better than that mark suggests. His home run issues are a bit uncharacteristic, but he continues to miss bats and avoid walks. He’s facing off against a solid Red Sox team that is 11-6 on the road. Lopez can pitch well and still surrender some run production on Saturday. Pablo Lopez over 1.5 earned runs (-135 DraftKings)

• We’re intrigued by the underdog Nationals against the Blue Jays and Kevin Gausman, who has not been his same dominant, bat-missing self. The Nats are already on the peskier side when it comes to putting the ball in play, and Gausman owns a .444 xwOBA on contact. Meanwhile, Jake Irvin takes the hill for the Nats with three quality starts across his last four. Don’t be surprised if the Nats manage to hang around and keep this game close. Nationals +1.5 (-120 at Caesars)

• Padres starter Michael King, the centerpiece of the Juan Soto trade, has not lived up to his part of the deal. He has a pair of stellar starts under his belt, but his other five can be characterized as inefficient and mired in walks and homers. King’s’ .381 xwOBA allowed on contact is bottom 10% in the league, and the Diamondbacks’ 80.3% contact rate ranks second in MLB. Arizona Diamondbacks -0.5 first five 5 (+120 FanDuel)

• We like the convergence of Arizona’s Christian Walker’s strengths and San Diego’s Michael King’s weaknesses. Walker’s 18.8% barrel rate ranks third behind Shohei Ohtani and Tyler O’Neill, and he’s connected on four homers in his last nine games. Meanwhile, King’s 11.9% barrel rate ranks in the 12th percentile of the league. This matchup supports Walker on paper even though he’s seeing King for the first time. Christian Walker home run (+425 at DraftKings) 

• Look for Wolves’ Mario Lemina to get shown a card by referee Craig Pawson, who has averaged 4.47 yellow cards shown per game in the Premier League this season. Lemina has already been booked nine times in the Premier League this season, roughly once every three games, and has picked up a card the last two times he’s played Manchester City. Given that the last time these teams met it got really nasty, with 11 cards, there’s a chance we could see another violent game if any grudges have been held. Mario Lemina to get booked (+160 at Bet365)

• Today’s Inter Milan v. Sassuolo match will be based on motivation. A look at the Serie A table shows you the gulf between the sides, with Sassuolo down in 19th and Inter having already won the league. With the title wrapped up, Inter’s players will be starting to look toward the summer and for some, their places in their international teams for Euro 2024. That should give Sassuolo some hope against a less-motivated team. Sassuolo are just five points from safety with four games left, and they’ve managed to pick up three draws in their past five games. They need to start turning draws into wins to stay up, but that could be a heavy lift here. Sassuolo Win or Draw (+165 at DraftKings)

• Picking Lionel Messi to score a goal isn’t exactly the bravest or most controversial sports betting in the world, but his record speaks for itself. He’s started six of his seven games and scored a total of nine goals in those games, as well as setting up another four. Every time Messi has started a game he’s managed to score, and he has averaged an incredible 5.1 shots per game in MLS this season. The Red Bulls are a good side, but they’re no match for Inter Miami when their star is playing. Messi has a great chance of getting his name on the scoresheet once again. Lionel Messi to score (-138 at Bet365)

Matches covered in our Soccer AM coverage, which is posted on sportmoney.com 
by 8:30am on Saturdays and Sundays during the European soccer season:

• In Stuttgart today we’re going to see two of the Bundeliga’s best strikers meet: Serhou Guirassy for the home side and Harry Kane for Bayern Munich. We’re looking for the Guinean to score. Guirassy‘s record speaks for itself with 25 goals in 26 Bundesliga games this season, and it’s a favorable matchup. Bayern are likely to rotate their team heavily given they face Real Madrid in the Champions League on Wednesday. That should mean a weakened Bayern team, something that Guirassy can take advantage of — especially given that he’s found the back of the net in 10 of his past 13 home games in Bundesliga. Serhou Guirassy to score (+100 at Bet365)

• Sportsbooks are only just beginning to get wise to Ben Brereton Diaz’s excellent stats in front of goal for Sheffield United. He’s scored five in 11 Premier League games since arriving from Villarreal in January, and crucially he’s had a shot on target in all five home games in which he’s played. He’s capable of finding great positions to shoot from, and given that Nottingham Forest have the fourth-worst defense in the league, he has a very good chance of continuing the trend. If you’ve been following this newsletter you’ll have seen this wager pop up a number of times already. It’s likely the price falls out of the market if Brereton Diaz’s form continues today. Ben Brereton Diaz Over 0.5 shots on target (-140 at FanDuel)

• Sometimes a league table can tell you everything that you need to know about a match. Real Madrid can win La Liga this weekend if they beat Cadiz and Barcelona don’t beat Girona. Even with a Champions League semi on the horizon on Wednesday, they should win with ease. Real are top of the table, having scored more goals than anybody (71) and conceding fewer than anyone (22). They now welcome the league’s third-worst team, Cadiz, who are looking likely to be relegated. Cadiz have scored just 23 La Liga goals in 33 games, a staggeringly low total, and Real Madrid and their formidable backline should be able to keep them from scoring at the Bernabeu. Real Madrid to win and Both teams to score - No (+110 at Bet365)

• Burnley are fighting for their Premier League lives. With three games left, they still have a chance to escape relegation to the Championship. Standing in their way today are Newcastle, who still have plenty to play for themselves. Newcastle are just a point behind Manchester United, who occupy the sixth spot. Overtaking them would get Newcastle to European competition for next season and a chance for silverware. While Burnley’s form isn’t bad, Newcastle have won three of their past four games and are the fourth-highest scoring team in the division. Newcastle to win (+105 at DraftKings)

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