Soccer AM: Look for Serhou Guirassy's Goal-Scoring Form to Continue, Another Shutout from Real

In Stuttgart today we’re going to see two of the Bundeliga’s best strikers meet: Serhou Guirassy for the home side and Harry Kane for Bayern Munich. We’re looking for the Guinean to score. Guirassy‘s record speaks for itself with 25 goals in 26 Bundesliga games this season, and it’s a favorable matchup. Bayern are likely to rotate their team heavily given they face Real Madrid in the Champions League on Wednesday. That should mean a weakened Bayern team, something that Guirassy can take advantage of — especially given that he’s found the back of the net in 10 of his past 13 home games in Bundesliga. Serhou Guirassy to score (+100 at Bet365)

Sportsbooks are only just beginning to get wise to Ben Brereton Diaz’s excellent stats in front of goal for Sheffield United. He’s scored five in 11 Premier League games since arriving from Villarreal in January, and crucially he’s had a shot on target in all five home games in which he’s played. He’s capable of finding great positions to shoot from, and given that Nottingham Forest have the fourth-worst defense in the league, he has a very good chance of continuing the trend. If you’ve been following this newsletter you’ll have seen this wager pop up a number of times already. It’s likely the price falls out of the market if Brereton Diaz’s form continues today. Ben Brereton Diaz Over 0.5 shots on target (-140 at FanDuel)

Sometimes a league table can tell you everything that you need to know about a match. Real Madrid can win La Liga this weekend if they beat Cadiz and Barcelona don’t beat Girona. Even with a Champions League semi on the horizon on Wednesday, they should win with ease. Real are top of the table, having scored more goals than anybody (71) and conceding fewer than anyone (22). They now welcome the league’s third-worst team, Cadiz, who are looking likely to be relegated. Cadiz have scored just 23 La Liga goals in 33 games, a staggeringly low total, and Real Madrid and their formidable backline should be able to keep them from scoring at the Bernabeu. Real Madrid to win and Both teams to score - No (+110 at Bet365)

Look for Wolves’ Mario Lemina to get shown a card by referee Craig Pawson, who has averaged 4.47 yellow cards shown per game in the Premier League this season. Lemina has already been booked nine times in the Premier League this season, roughly once every three games, and has picked up a card the last two times he’s played Manchester City. Given that the last time these teams met it got really nasty, with 11 cards, there’s a chance we could see another violent game if any grudges have been held. Mario Lemina to get booked (+160 at Bet365)

Burnley are fighting for their Premier League lives. With three games left, they still have a chance to escape relegation to the Championship. Standing in their way today are Newcastle, who still have plenty to play for themselves. Newcastle are just a point behind Manchester United, who occupy the sixth spot. Overtaking them would get Newcastle to European competition for next season and a chance for silverware. While Burnley’s form isn’t bad, Newcastle have won three of their past four games and are the fourth-highest scoring team in the division. Newcastle to win (+105 at DraftKings)

Today’s Inter Milan v. Sassuolo match will be based on motivation. A look at the Serie A table shows you the gulf between the sides, with Sassuolo down in 19th and Inter having already won the league. With the title wrapped up, Inter’s players will be starting to look toward the summer and for some, their places in their international teams for Euro 2024. That should give Sassuolo some hope against a less-motivated team. Sassuolo are just five points from safety with four games left, and they’ve managed to pick up three draws in their past five games. They need to start turning draws into wins to stay up, but that could be a heavy lift here. Sassuolo Win or Draw (+165 at DraftKings)

Picking Lionel Messi to score a goal isn’t exactly the bravest or most controversial sports betting in the world, but his record speaks for itself. He’s started six of his seven games and scored a total of nine goals in those games, as well as setting up another four. Every time Messi has started a game he’s managed to score, and he has averaged an incredible 5.1 shots per game in MLS this season. The Red Bulls are a good side, but they’re no match for Inter Miami when their star is playing. Messi has a great chance of getting his name on the scoresheet once again. Lionel Messi to score (-138 at Bet365)