Garland Should Get Shots as Magic Try to Stop Mitchell from Beating Them in Game 7

What do you get when you pick two out of three right in a Kentucky Derby trifecta bet? Nothing, which is what a lot of us got yesterday when 18-1 underdog Mystik Dan won the 150th edition of the race in a three-way photo finish with Sierra Leone and Forever Young.

In today’s newsletter, Chris covers game 7 of the Magic/Cavs series. He’s tracking slightly more points overall and for Darius Garland to have more opportunities as the Magic try to stop Donovan Mitchell from dropping 50 again.

In MLB, Jack is looking for a pitchers’ duel in Chicago and for Mets first basemen Pete Alonso to get back on track in a big way against the Rays. And on the pitch, Sam is following the Bundesliga champs, as they could be looking ahead to their Europa League semifinal match this week.

- Abe Rakov

• It's understandable why today's total is so low in the Magic/Cavs matchup. Two young playoff teams will likely rely on what they do best, which for both programs is found in their defensive prowess. But game 7s are unique in that neither team will choose to simply give up in the fourth quarter, even if they're losing by a big deficit. At this point, both rosters and coaches are adapted to the stingy resistance of their opponent, too. This number should still be closer to 200. Magic/Cavs over 195.5 (-110 at BetMGM at FanDuel)

• There was no mistaking who was the clear leader and most capable scorer in game 6 for the Cavs, as Donovan Mitchell dropped 50 points, more than half of Cleveland's output, on Friday. What might be lost heading into game 7 is how effective and steady Darius Garland was alongside Mitchell, an effective 1-2 punch in their last contest (10-17, 21 pts). It's unlikely that a defense as good as Orlando's will let Mitchell thrive like that again, which means more opportunity for his colleague. D. Garland over 18.5 points (-102 at DraftKings)

• Game 7s are almost all about intangibles. Which team is better coached? Which roster has more experience? Which starting lineup has the best on-court leadership? Who will show the most poise in the game's most intense moments? In nearly every one of these categories, the Cavaliers are the more tenured outfit, they're at home in front of a fanbase that's desperate to see them succeed, and they have the best player on the court in Donovan Mitchell. This spread is sharp, but the value is still on the Cavs. Cavs -3 (-110 at DraftKings)

• If you like pitchers’ duels, Sunday afternoon’s Brewers-Cubs matchup is the game for you. Freddy Peralta has given up just a .129 batting average and a .221 xwOBA in his career against current Cubs hitters, and Chicago ranks 26th in MLB in batting average over the last week. On the other side, Javier Assad has a 1.97 ERA and has surrendered one or fewer runs in four of his six starts this year. The kicker, though, is the strong Chicago wind projected to be blowing in from center field throughout the game. Brewers @ Cubs first five innings under 3.5 runs (-120 at FanDuel)

• MacKenzie Gore has been impressive this year with 38 strikeouts in 33.1 innings of work for the Nationals, but he only ranks in the 48th percentile in chase rate. This isn’t an easy matchup for him to force swings and misses, either, as the Blue Jays have the fourth-lowest chase rate, the fifth-lowest whiff rate, and the fourth-highest chase contact rate in MLB. Gore has a career strikeout rate of just 11.6% against current Toronto hitters, so this is a solid spot for an under. MacKenzie Gore under 5.5 Ks (-140 at DraftKings)

• It’s been a frustrating start to the season for James Paxton, who leads all qualified starting pitchers in walk rate (19.8%). The Dodgers starter has surrendered a whopping 22 walks over his first five starts, but he’s been a bit unlucky in that regard. Despite his high walk rate, Paxton has just the 45th-highest out of zone rate in MLB. The left-hander has never recorded a walk rate worse than 9.8% in a season, so we should see some regression to the mean soon. The Braves rank third in the league in swing rate and 21st in walk rate, so this is a good matchup for Paxton to get back on track with his control. James Paxton under 2.5 walks (-145 at DraftKings)

• After a scorching hot start to the season, Mookie Betts has cooled off with a .208 batting average and only one run scored over the last week. The star outfielder has gone under this line in four of his last six games, and today’s matchup has proven to be tough for him over the years. In 24 career at-bats against Atlanta’s Max Fried, Betts is batting .083 with seven strikeouts. This could be a quiet day at the plate for him. Mookie Betts under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+115 at DraftKings)

• Believe it or not, the A’s are the hottest hitting team in baseball right now. Oakland ranks No. 1 in MLB in runs, batting average, home runs, and OPS over the last week, and it just put up 20 runs and six home runs against the Miami Marlins on Saturday. We’re not expecting another 20-spot here, but the A’s should be able to keep it rolling against Sixto Sanchez. The Marlins starter has given up eight runs over his two starts this season, and Miami’s bullpen ranks dead last in the league in runs allowed. Oakland Athletics team total over 3.5 runs (-115 at DraftKings)

• There’s no way the Phillies should be home underdogs on Sunday the way they’re swinging the bat. Philadelphia ranks first in MLB in RBIs, second in runs, third in batting average, and third in OPS over the last 15 days, and the team is 15-3 in its last 18 games. The Phils are only underdogs because of the pitching mismatch between Logan Webb and Taijuan Walker, but current Phillies hitters are batting .333 with a .429 xwOBA against Webb. Phillies moneyline (+104 at FanDuel)

• The Mets are the perfect team to target with a home run prop on this fine Sunday. Rays starter Ryan Pepiot has the eighth-highest fly ball rate among qualified pitchers, and Tampa Bay’s bullpen has surrendered the most home runs so far this season. You’re getting a discount price on Pete Alonso because he has only one hit in his last 23 at-bats, but this is a dream matchup for him to get back on track at the plate. Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+425 at DraftKings)

• Coming into today’s game against Bayer Leverkusen, Frankfurt are sixth in the Bundesliga table. They can’t catch Dortmund above and are four points clear of Freiburg behind them. They will hope to get something from this game against the champions. Leverkusen are still unbeaten this season, but they have the second leg of their tie against Roma this Thursday and will surely rest some players. That big European game is their main priority now that the title is secure. Given they’ve drawn their last two, it’s easy to see standards slipping again while they look forward. Frankfurt v. Bayer Leverkusen Draw (+265 at BetRivers)

• Granada are in serious trouble. They’re down in 19th in La Liga and now 10 points behind Celta Vigo in 17th, meaning that they are looking relegation straight in the face. What makes things worse is the trip to face Sevilla sees them facing one of Spain’s in-form teams. For the bulk of the season we’ve seen Sevilla look like they were under threat of relegation, but over the past four games they’ve won three and drawn the other, a streak that has seen them fly up the table to 13th. They’re on a great run and should be able to take advantage of a poor Granada team. Sevilla to win (-150 at Bet365)

Matches covered in our Soccer AM coverage, which is posted on sportmoney.com 
by 8:30am on Saturdays and Sundays during the European soccer season:

• In the Netherlands, fifth-place Ajax is travelling to face a Volendam team who are six points from safety and look set for relegation. It’s been a troubling season for Ajax fans, but they’ve gotten marginally better as the season has progressed. They’re the third-highest scoring team in the league, but their biggest issue is that they’ve conceded 58 goals — that’s 23 more than AZ Alkmaar, who are one spot above them in the Eredivisie. Their road games have seen a lot of goals, with 12 of the 15 hitting four of more goals, something that should continue against a Volendam team who are fighting for their lives and have allowed more goals than anybody in the league. Over 3.5 goals (-134 at FanDuel)

• Cole Palmer has been the standout performer for Chelsea this season and is the best bit of transfer business of the Todd Boehly era at Stamford Bridge. Palmer has added a real goal threat to a team that don’t have a legitimate number nine to play upfront. In 29 Premier League games he’s scored 20 goals. A game against rivals West Ham gives him a chance to make himself even more popular amongst the Chelsea fanbase. He’s put up a blank in his past two Premier League games, but before that had scored 10 in five matches. Cole Palmer to score (+118 at BetRivers)

• We’re looking for an international teammate of Cole Palmer to score for Aston Villa today in Ollie Watkins. Now that Harry Kane has left for the Bundesliga, he’s the best English striker in the Premier League. Watkins’ goalscoring record the entire season has been great, with 19 in 34 league games, but what’s really impressed is his record away from home, with eight in 16 games. That bodes well ahead of a trip to Brighton, who just gave up three to Bournemouth and four to Man City in the game before that. Ollie Watkins to score (+145 at Borgata)

• Both Frosinone and Empoli are just clear of the relegation zone in Serie A. They are, along with Verona, on 31 points and two points ahead of both Udinese and Sassuolo, who are currently in the drop zone. Frosinone are ahead of Empoli on goal difference but that could change after today. Frosinone come in off a win, but it was against already relegated Salernitana. Meanwhile Empoli have won their previous two at home, 1-0 over Napoli and 3-2 over Torino. Frosinone are yet to win an away game all season. Empoli to win (+140 at FanDuel)

• Much like Empoli vs Frosinone, in the Bundesliga we have Union Berlin vs Bochum, with both teams narrowly above the drop zone with 30 points. Both teams need a win, but much like the aforementioned game it doesn’t matter that Bochum won last time out. Bochum, like Frosinone, have the league’s worst away record. As bad as Union Berlin have been this season, they have been relatively good at home of late with five wins, one draw and three defeats. Considering those losses came to powerhouses Dortmund, Bayern Munich, and recently crowned champions Bayer Leverkusen, they are perhaps marginally better than advertised. Union Berlin to win (-105 at FanDuel)

IN THE NEWS