Top 10 NBA Bets of the Day + MLB Pitcher vs. Batter Matchups and NHL Playoff Odds

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Stanley Cup Playoffs after Round 1

• Top 10 Bets: Celtics won first 3 games against Knicks this season by an average of 21 points

• Game of the Day: Bettors favor Nuggets (+9.5) in Game 1 vs. Thunder

• Matchups: Arizona hitters are 7-40 against Mets’ Canning

• Overtime: The most valuable players of the NBA playoffs so far

Round 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs starts tonight with the Panthers vs. Maple Leafs (8pm on ESPN). All four division winners made it through their first round matchups, but only one (Vegas) is favored to advance.

Here’s where FanDuel has the playoffs with three rounds remaining:

• Maple Leafs vs. Panthers: Panthers -184, Maple Leafs +150

• Capitals vs. Hurricanes: Hurricanes -170, Capitals +140

• Jets vs. Stars: Stars -166, Jets +138

• Golden Knights vs. Oilers: Golden Knights -118, Oilers -102

• Eastern Conference Champions: Panthers (+170), Hurricanes (+195), Maple Leafts (+420), Capitals (+450)

• Western Conference Champions: Stars (+185), Golden Knights and Oilers (+260), Jets (+420)

• Stanley Cup Champions: Panthers (+400), Stars (+420), Hurricanes (+480), Golden Knights and Oilers (+600), Jets and Maple Leafs (+1000), Capitols (+1100)

In today’s newsletter, Chris has his top 10 bets to watch (tonight’s NBA matchups and some playoff futures). We also give you a preview of Game 1 between the Thunder and Nuggets and pitcher vs. batter matchups in five MLB games.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. The Jets were down 3-1 to the Blues with less than two minutes to go in the 3rd period before winning the game and series 4-3 in double overtime. Blues fans were sad.

Nuggets are the NBA’s 2nd-Worst Team Against the Spread in the 1st Half (37-51-1)

By Chris Farley

Knicks vs. Celtics over 212 points (-110 at Bovada)
Boston's defense can be phenomenal (4th overall this season, 3rd in the playoffs), but the Knicks have never shown superior defense for any stretch this season (13th overall). Against the Magic, in a series that averaged just 200 points per game, the Celtics' offensive potential is getting undervalued significantly in this spot. Orlando's success was mostly about stout defense, a big reason why they slow down games and reduce overall scoring. The Knicks allowed 125 points per game against Boston this season, and the Knicks are a far better offense (5th overall), the strength they'll rely on as they likely fall behind. Their pace has also been unusually high this postseason, too (97.92). This total is far too low.

Celtics -9 (-110 at FanDuel)
We tend to think the Knicks are in for a rude awakening. Following a tireless six-game series against the Pistons, an affair they barely pulled off and resulted in the final three games ending in margins of three or less, the Knicks are facing the reigning NBA champions. This season they haven't won a single contest against the Celtics, and the first three losses were by an average of 21 points. The Knicks have serious issues on defense, that much should be obvious after watching them struggle against Detroit's 14th-best offense in their first series, and the Celtics are a far more talented group. At home and well-rested, we expect the Celtics to make a statement in game one.

Jayson Tatum under 27.5 points (-115 at Bovada)
Tatum hasn't slowed down in the postseason. Clearly the C's leader, Tatum averaged 31.3 points per game against the Magic. In key situations he took over, and he finished the series with three straight games of at least 35 points. But he doesn't need to be that Tatum against the Knicks. Boston has matchup advantages at all levels. Karl-Anthony Towns can be an electric addition to New York's offense, but he's an average defender at best. The same can be said for Jalen Brunson. And while Bridges and Anunoby can be great defenders, they're undersized against a hyper-athletic Boston front. We see Boston blowing out the Knicks and sending a message, which also means Tatum might be riding the bench late.

Jalen Brunson under 27.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)
Brunson had a decent season against the Knicks, averaging 26 points and 5 assists in four games, but historically he hasn't been as productive. In 20 games against Boston, the former Villanova star averaged 20.3 points per game in his career. We see a similar number coming up on Monday. Brunson is a fantastic scorer and one of the most clutch players in the NBA, but Boston's defense is at another level in the playoffs. Against guards, their defense rates have been higher than any other program this postseason, and only Boston was better against perimeter shots this season (Boston only allowed a 34.3% clip from beyond the arc). After more heroics from Brunson in the last series, this is a fine spot for regression.

Nuggets vs. Thunder 1st quarter over 57.5 points (-110 at Bovada, BetOnline, and DraftKings)
These two high-flying offenses have combined for an average of 60 points per first quarter in four matchups this season, an unsurprising result considering the raw scoring talent on the court. As most fans know, it helps that Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander play the majority of the first quarter (if not the entire first quarter), and not-so-coincidentally the Thunder and Nuggets are #1 and #2, respectively, in first quarter offensive rating this season. The first battle of a long series usually beckons a baseline feeling-out process for each roster, and it's far from the eventual nerves that will come as the series trudges on. Both programs love to attack early, and we see another explosive scoring-spree as the result.

Nikola Jokic over 50.5 points + rebounds + assists (-105 at Bovada)
The NBA's best player (my opinion, but it's right) will try and do what few pundits are thinking is possible; lead his team past the West's #1 squad. Whether his side wins or not on Monday, there's no denying the success of "the Joker" against this enemy. In four games against OKC this season, he's averaged 52 combined points, rebounds and assists, including a ridiculous 35/18/8 stat line in a win in their last meeting. The Thunder are understandable nine-point favorites at home in Game 1, but we love that for the big-man's chances. Denver is likely to trail in this game, which means Jokic's services will be needed all night.

Thunder first half -6.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
The Nuggets and Thunder have been top-3 programs for most of the year in the Western Conference, but they're in different galaxies when it comes to the first half. Denver loves to play from behind: They're the NBA's second-worst program against the spread in the first 24 minutes (37-51-1, only Charlotte is worse). Oklahoma City, on the other hand, is the NBA's best ATS program (66.3%), and an exceptional 48-39 ATS in the first half. Denver's achilles heel is their defense, a group that permitted 59.7 points per game in the first half this season. On far less rest than their opponent and on the road, we'll avoid the full-game spread but we don't like Denver's fate in the first half. 

NBA Futures

Celtics Series Spread -3.5 (+310 at FanDuel)
We were very impressed by how hard the Pistons played against the Knicks, forcing a game six when it looked like New York had the series all wrapped up. On the other hand, while Detroit exceeded expectations, it's worth considering how much of an uptick in competition the Knicks are facing in the semifinals. Except for their fourth meeting of the season, a contest where Boston seemed uninterested and still won, the Celtics dominated the Knicks this season. In every category, they're the better program (net rated 2nd, New York is 8th), and they're a group of seasoned, experienced champions with thrice the amount of scoring talent and depth. We see the Knicks getting rocked.

Nuggets win the series (+610 at FanDuel)
We get why this is unlikely to happen. No roster in the NBA has proven itself more than the Thunder. OKC was the #1 net-rated team this season, with the #1 defense, the best record; we could go on and on. A crew of elite two-way players surrounding MVP candidate Shae Gilgeous-Alexander and a top-tier coach presents the recipe of a championship program, but there is value in looking at the underdog. Denver embarrassed the Clippers in game seven and didn't even need Jokic's best (16 points) to do it. With a core of players that won a title together, Denver has many clutch members of their roster, guys that can carry the team when needed. It helps that Jamal Murray (23 points per game, 40.4% from beyond the arc against LAC) is heating up. At this price? What a deal!

Timberwolves win the series (-180 at FanDuel)
Minnesota didn't have much success against the Warriors during the regular season. While these matchups preceded the Warriors' signing of Jimmy Butler, Julius Randle had yet to find his comfort zone on a new team (he averaged just 16 points per game versus Golden State). One round into the playoffs and it's obvious that the marriage of Butler and Curry has yielded results, but the Warriors also look very shaky at times. Unless another contributor outside of their big two thrives, they struggle — and we don't trust that the likes of Buddy Hield and Brandin Podziemski can hold up against a defense as good as Minnesota's. With Anthony Edwards' rising superstardom and an energetic supporting cast, we think the T-Wolves make the Warriors look old in this one.

Thunder and Nuggets Averaged 247 Points in Last 3 Matchups this Season

No. 4 Nuggets vs. No. 1 Thunder
9:30pm on TNT

• Spread: Thunder -9.5 (-112), Nuggets +9.5 (-108)

  • 51% of the money and 63% of the bets are with Denver

• Moneyline: Thunder -420, Nuggets +330

• Total (225.5): Over/Under -110

*Stats in the Playoffs

Head to Head

• March 10: Nuggets won 140-127 at Oklahoma City

  • Leading scorers: Jokic (35) | Dort (26)

  • Leading rebounds: Jokic (18) | Dort (7)

  • Leading assists: Jokic (8) | Wallace (8)

• March 9: Thunder won 127-103 at Oklahoma City

  • Leading scorers: Gilgeous-Alexander (40) | Porter Jr. (24)

  • Leading rebounds: Hartenstein (11) | Porter Jr. (15)

  • Leading assists: Williams (8) | Jokic (9)

• Nov. 6: Nuggets won 124-122 at Denver

  • Leading scorers: Westbrook (29) | Williams (29)

  • Leading rebounds: Jokic (20) | Williams (10)

  • Leading assists: Jokic (16) | Williams (9)

• Oct. 24: Thunder won 102-87 at Denver

  • Leading scorers: Gilgeous-Alexander (28) | Jokic (16)

  • Leading rebounds: Holmgren (14) | Jokic (12)

  • Leading assists: Gilgeous-Alexander (8) | Jokic (13)

Current Pirates Hitters have 0 Home Runs Against Mikolas in 142 At Bats

Nick Pivetta (Padres) @ Yankees — 7:05pm on MLB Network

• Season: 5-1, 1.78 ERA, 6 starts, 35.1 innings, 21 hits, 7 ER, 2 HR, 8 BB, 39 K

• Matchup: Current Yankees hitters have 46 at bats against Pivetta and combine for a .382 OBP (12 hits, 1 2B, 4 HR, 5 RBI, 9 BB, 13 K)

  • Paul Goldschmidt (4-11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 K)

  • Aaron Judge (5-18, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 5 BB, 4 K)

  • Anthony Volpe (0-6, 3 K)

Brady Singer (Reds) @ Braves — 7:15pm on MLB Network

• Season: 4-1, 3.24 ERA, 6 starts, 33.1 innings, 24 hits, 12 ER, 4 HR, 12 BB, 36 K

• Matchup: Current Braves hitters have 60 at bats against Singer and combine for a .344 OBP (18 hits, 5 2B, 6 HR, 17 RBI, 4 BB, 15 K)

  • Sean Murphy (5-8, 2 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 K)

  • Alex Verdugo: 3-10, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

  • Eddie Rosario: 5-14, 2 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1 K

Miles Mikolas (Cardinals) vs. Pirates — 7:45pm

• Season: 1-2, 4.66 ERA, 6 starts, 29.0 innings, 30 hits, 15 ER, 9 BB, 17 K

• Matchup: Current Pirates hitters have 142 at bats against Mikolas and combine for a .308 OBP (42 hits, 11 2B, 5 3B, 0 HR, 14 RBI, 3 BB, 24 K)

  • Adam Frazier: 13-34, 4 2B, 2 3B, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes: 8-21, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 RBI, 2 K

  • Bryan Reynolds: 14-39, 4 2B, 1 3B, 4 RBI, 1 BB, 4 K

Griffin Canning (Mets) @ Diamondbacks — 9:40pm

• Season: 4-1, 2.61 ERA, 6 starts, 31.0 innings, 29 hits, 9 ER, 2 HR, 14 BB, 31 K

• Matchup: Current Diamondbacks hitters have 40 at bats against Canning and combine for a .214 OBP (7 hits, 1 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 9 K)

  • Josh Naylor: 2-6, 1 RBI

  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: 2-8, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 K

  • Ketel Marte: 1-5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K

Bryce Miller (Mariners) @ Athletics — 10:05pm

• Season: 2-3, 3.52 ERA, 6 starts, 30.2 innings, 25 hits, 12 ER, 1 HR, 19 BB, 31 K

• Matchup: Current A’s hitters have 52 at bats against Miller and combine for a .250 OBP (10 hits, 1 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 4 BB, 15 K)

  • Lawrence Butler: 2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 3 BB

  • Shea Langeliers: 1-8, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 4 K

  • Tyler Soderstrom: 1-6, 1 2B, 5 K

In the News 

• ESPN ranks the 10 NBA postseason MVPs so far.

• The Commanders are set to host the 2027 NFL Draft (after Pittsburgh next year).

• Speaking of the Steelers, this year’s draft showed that they’re all in on Aaron Rodgers even before they’ve agreed to a deal.

• Michigan football coach Sherrone Moore is reportedly being suspended for the 3rd and 4th games of the season because of the Connor Stalions scouting scandal.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: Knicks vs. Celtics Game 1 on TNT

• 7:05pm: Padres vs. Yankees on MLB Network

• 8pm: Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 1 on ESPN

• 9:30pm: Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 1 on TNT

Photo of the Day