Pacers' Depth Could Keep Game 1, Series Close Against the Knicks

If you were still catching your breath after the Cavs’ 18-point comeback win over the Magic to win the series, you might have missed someone not named Max Verstappen win a Formula 1 race. McLaren’s Lando Norris raced away from Verstappen after pitting under a yellow flag on lap 30 and never looked back in Miami. It was Norris’s first win and the first time in years that a car looked faster than Red Bull. The question is, did McLaren catch up or was Verstappen’s car damaged in some way? We’ll find out in the next couple of races.

In today’s newsletter, Jason is tracking the Pacers to keep it close and for a lot of offense in the Wolves and Nuggets game. In MLB, Craig is looking for hits out of the Phillies and Dodgers, and for the Padres to see an instant benefit after acquiring Luis Arraez.

- Abe Rakov

Indiana Pacers +6 (-110 at DraftKings)
I’ve been going back and forth with this game, but the Pacers will likely stick around in Game 1 against the Knicks. After all, Indiana scored at least 124.7 points per 100 possessions in four of their last five games. Offensively they’ve got a bunch of weapons, and they’re deep. Obi Toppin led the Pacers in points in Game 6 off the bench. T.J. McConnell also added 20 off the bench. The depth for Indiana should at least get the Pacers a cover.

Pacers vs. Knicks OVER 216.5 (-115 at ESPN Bet)
The Knicks will be much more hard-nosed defensively than the Bucks were. But no defense has stopped the Pacers this year. Indiana was one of the best offenses in the NBA this season, ranking second in points per 100 possessions, third in effective field goal percentage, and first in turnover percentage. This game has more potential to be a shootout than the books are letting on.

Minnesota Timberwolves +6 (-105 at HardRock)
The Timberwolves shocked the NBA world with a 106-99 victory in Game 1 of the playoffs on the road. Don’t expect much to change in tonight’s game. The Nuggets simply haven’t played great defense in the playoffs. They’ve allowed at least 108.7 points per 100 possessions in every game. While Denver does a solid job on the defensive glass and limits foul shots, the Nuggets have had difficulty stopping teams from the field. Over the last three games, the Timberwolves have shot at least a 54.5% effective field goal percentage, including Game 1 against the Nuggets.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets OVER 206 (-115 at HardRock)
I’ve already discussed how poorly the Nuggets have played defensively. But the Timberwolves haven’t been much better. Over the last three games, the Timberwolves have also allowed at least 107.7 points per 100 possessions. Opponents are getting to the foul line against Minnesota at will, and the Timberwolves have only added 13.2% of turnovers in two straight games. That’s nothing to get excited about. We’ll see more offense in this Game 2 matchup.

Tyrese Haliburton UNDER 2.5 Threes (+110 at MGM)
Although Tyrese Haliburton has taken nine three-pointers per game in the playoffs, he’s still only averaged 2.7 threes a night. Against the Bucks on Thursday, Haliburton shot 2-for-10 from three. He’s ultimately had three games in the playoffs with two or fewer threes and has shot under 30% from downtown in the playoffs. The Knicks are way more connected defensively than the Bucks and will likely beat screens to ensure he doesn’t get that same three-point volume.

OG Anunoby UNDER 6.5 Rebounds (-134 at BetRivers)
OG Anunoby has added at least seven rebounds in only two of six games in the postseason. He began the playoffs with four rebounds in three consecutive games, but added 14 rebounds in the next game, followed by six rebounds and nine rebounds to close out the series. The issue is that the Pacers typically make a much higher percentage of shots from the field and give fewer rebounding opportunities. The Knicks also allowed at least 25% of offensive rebounds to the 76ers in every game in the playoffs. The Under for Anunoby makes the most sense.

Phillies -1.5 (+106 at FanDuel)
Today’s tilt has a less-than-ideal 4:05 pm first pitch, a tough start on a getaway day for the struggling Giants. Avoiding a sweep will be a tall task against Zack Wheeler, who only has one bad outing on the season. Philadelphia owns the NL’s second-best run differential and they’re on a five-game winning streak. The Giants, meanwhile, are 3-7 over their last 10 and own the NL’s second-worst run differential.

Phillies most hits (-125 at FanDuel)
We’re leaning into the offensive forms of the Phillies and Giants on a light Monday MLB slate. The Phillies are particularly hot, as they’re getting quality pitching and run production. They own the league’s third-best wOBA (.358) across their last 11, compared to the Giant’s .281 mark over their last 10. Additionally, the Phillies’ overall OPS vs. right-handers (Mason Black is making his MLB debut for the Giants) is .737 (6th) vs. .676 (18th).

Sean Manaea under 15.5 outs recorded (-130 at DraftKings)
A meeting with Mets starter Sean Manaea presents ample (theoretical) opportunity for the Cardinals to get right against lefties. We’re not going to put too much backing behind the birds considering their .183 average against southpaws. However, they don’t whiff at a particularly high rate against them. Manaea, meanwhile, has struggled with efficiency (14.1% walk rate), and specifically against Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras, both of whom are heating up.

Dodgers most hits (-125 at FanDuel)
Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler makes his return to an MLB mound. He hasn’t been statistically impressive throughout his minor league rehab stint, but that is a secondary concern to the build up of his stamina. He tossed 75 pitches in his most recent outing, suggesting he could be allowed to reach 85 or 90 tonight. The light-hitting and Luis Arraez-less Marlins are an ideal opponent against whom Buehler can regain his big league form.

Bryan Reynolds over 0.5 hits (-245 at DraftKings)
A quiet start to the season by Pirates No. 2 hitter Bryan Reynolds is a leading reason for their offensive struggles. To be fair to Reynolds, the discrepancy between his expected vs. actual metrics suggests he’s been the victim of poor fortune. Reynolds has also hit better against left-handers for his career (.286 BA vs. .270) with a solid .451 slugging percentage. We don’t make a habit of looking at such short odds, but are making an exception here.

Guardians ML first five innings (-114 at FanDuel)
The Tigers have reason to be frustrated and perhaps a bit sluggish to start today’s contest. They endured an eighth-inning rain delay yesterday before the game was finally called, adding a tally to the loss column and a later than necessary departure. Guardians’ starter Triston McKenzie has struggled with walks and efficiency this season, but his 9.1% walk rate over his last 16 innings suggests his most recent start (7 IP, 2 ER, 1 BB vs. HOU) is more trend than mirage.

Padres ML first five innings (-105 at DraftKings)
The heart of the Padres batting order handles left-handed pitching well, at least over the balance of their careers. They’ll face off against the Cubs’ Justin Steele, who is making his first start since March 28. We like the addition of newly acquired former batting champion Luis Arraez for the Padres. Even though his splits versus lefties are more modest than against right-handers, his presence atop the order can’t be denied.

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