Two 10+ Point Spreads in the NBA Tonight + MLB Analysis and Golf Insights

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Road wins in the NBA Playoffs

• Top 10 Bets: OKC was 12-2 off a loss this year with an average win by 12.6 points

• Game(s) of the Day: Celtics and Thunder are both 10+ point favorites

• Matchups: Pirates’ Reynolds is 7-21 with 3 HR and 8 K vs. tonight’s opposing pitcher

• Overtime: Utah’s NHL team is no longer nameless

Road teams have won the first five games in the second round of the NBA Playoffs, and this is the first time in league history that no home teams won in Game 1 of round two. When you include Golden State’s Game 7 win over Houston, visiting teams have now won six straight games in the playoffs.

With its miraculous Game 2 win over Cleveland last night to go up 2-0, Indiana is now the favorite to make it out of the series (-198, the Cavs are down to +166). In all of the other series, the better seeds are still favored despite losing Game 1 — odds via FanDuel: Celtics -370 (Knicks +295), Thunder -320 (Nuggets +260) and Timberwolves -148 (Warriors +126).

Oklahoma City (+160) is the slight favorite to win the title, followed by Boston (+190), Cleveland (+1000), Denver (+1300), Minnesota (+1400), Indiana (+1600), and Golden State and New York (+2300).

In today’s newsletter, Jack has his top 10 bets to watch across the NBA Playoffs, MLB and golf. We also give you a rundown of tonight’s two NBA matchups and 10 batter vs. pitcher matchups in MLB.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. Take a few minutes to read ESPN’s feature about the coaching legacy of Gregg Popovich.

Robinson Grabbed 7 Rebounds on 12 Chances in 21 Minutes in Game 1

By Jack Dougherty

Mitchell Robinson over 4.5 rebounds (-115 at DraftKings)
The Knicks need Robinson’s size and rebounding in this series. The Celtics dominated the boards when Karl-Anthony Towns was on the court in Game 1, so Tom Thibodeau played Robinson 21 minutes off the bench. The center grabbed seven rebounds on 12 rebound chances in the game. Robinson should see a similar role in Game 2, and he always has an opportunity to see more minutes because Towns routinely gets in foul trouble in the playoffs. 

Thunder -11 (-108 at FanDuel)
The Thunder have been a money-making machine coming back from a loss this season. Oklahoma City is 12-2 off a loss this year with an average margin of victory of 12.6 points. The Thunder were on their way to a win and a cover in Game 1, leading by 14 points late in the third quarter before the wheels fell off. Mark Daigneault will come to Game 2 with a much better defensive plan for Nikola Jokic. 

Timberwolves to win the series (-148 at FanDuel)
This is the perfect time to buy low on the Timberwolves after an abysmal performance in Game 1. Minnesota went 5-29 (17.2%) from three and failed to take advantage of Steph Curry leaving the game in the first half with a hamstring injury. The Warriors don’t have much of a chance in this series if Curry misses multiple games and returns to play at less than 100%, and hamstring injuries tend to linger. The Timberwolves were -200 to win the series before Game 1. They’re 10-point favorites in Game 2 with Curry expected to sit out, so this should be a 1-1 series heading back to Golden State, and we’ll be sitting on a solid price. 

MLB

Jonathan Cannon over 3.5 strikeouts (+100 at DraftKings)
This over shouldn’t be priced at plus money. Cannon has cleared this line in six of his seven appearances this season, and he only went under against the Tigers last month because he lasted just 3.2 innings due to poor control. The right-hander has cleaned up his control issues from earlier in the season and was able to go at least 6.0 innings in each of his past three outings. The Royals have been stingy against righties of late, but this line is too low for how deep cannon can go in games. 

Christopher Sanchez under 4.5 hits allowed (+125 at DraftKings)
Sanchez has gone under this line in two of his past three starts, and this is a great matchup against a struggling Rays lineup. Tampa Bay ranks dead last in MLB in batting average (.165), OPS (.471) and BAPIP (.200) against left-handed pitching over the past 15 days. Meanwhile, Sanchez ranks in the 71st percentile in xBA (.228) and the 89th percentile in barrel rate (3.7%) this season, so he should be able to force a ton of soft contact and keep the Rays off the bases. 

Max Fried under 5.5 strikeouts (-148 at FanDuel)
Fried has been lights out for the Yankees in his first year in the Bronx, but strikeouts haven’t been a big part of that success. The left-hander ranks in the 34th percentile in whiff rate and the 39th percentile in chase rate this season. He’s also pounding the zone at the second-highest rate of his career (49.9%), and the Padres have the highest zone contact rate in the league (86.2%). San Diego hitters also have a 16.3% strikeout rate in 86 plate appearances against Fried. 

George Springer over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-105 at DraftKings)
Springer is averaging 1.88 hits + runs + RBIs per game this season, and he couldn’t ask for a better matchup in this game. In 17 career plate appearances against Yusei Kikuchi, Springer is batting .438 with only three strikeouts. The Blue Jays outfielder has been crushing lefties all season, batting .308 with four home runs and a 1.249 OPS in 26 plate appearances against southpaws. 

Golf

Min Woo Lee top-20 finish (+160 at DraftKings)
The Philadelphia Cricket Club should be a solid course for Lee, who ranks fifth on the PGA Tour this season in carry distance. That will give him a huge advantage off the tee because he’ll be able to carry a lot of these fairway bunkers that come into play for most of the players in the field. Short game will also be crucial this week at the Truist Championship’s challenging greens and deep greenside bunkers, and Lee has gained strokes from putting and from around the green in six of his nine starts this year. 

Ludvig Aberg top-20 finish (-140 at FanDuel)
Aberg is another player whose strengths should suit him well at Philly Cricket Club. The Swede ranks 12th in carry distance and 28th in total driving, so he should be able to attack this course off the tee like Lee will. Aberg has struggled with his putting at times this year, but the greens at the Wissahickon Course will play a lot like the undulated, bentgrass greens at Augusta National. Why is that important? Well, Aberg’s best putting weeks of the season in 2024 and 2025 came at The Masters. 

Keegan Bradley top-20 finish (+140 at DraftKings)
Death, taxes and Keegan Bradley playing well in the Northeast. The New England native feels right at home on this type of golf course with heavy bunkering, severe elevation changes and bentgrass greens. The last time the PGA Tour visited the Philadelphia area, Bradley won the 2018 BMW Championship at Aronimink Golf Club. The 38-year-old has been striping the ball all season, as he ranks sixth in strokes gained from tee to green and 16th in total driving. The putting hasn’t been good, but he can find a groove on these familiar greens at Philly Cricket.  

Celtics Give Up Playoff-Low 96.0 Points/Game, OKC 2nd to Cavs with 119.8 Scored/Game

No. 3 Knicks vs. No. 2 Celtics
7pm on TNT
(NY leads 1-0)

• Spread: Celtics -10.5 (-110), Knicks +10.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Celtics -550, Knicks +410

• Total (211.5): Over/Under -110

• Game 1: Knicks won 108-105 at Boston

  • Leading scorers: Brunson and Anunoby (29) | Tatum and Brown (23)

  • Leading rebounds: Towns (13) | Tatum (16)

  • Leading assists: Bridges (7) | Tatum (6)

No. 4 Nuggets vs. No. 1 Thunder
9:30pm on TNT
(DEN leads 1-0)

• Spread: Thunder -11 (-108), Nuggets +11 (-112)

  • 72% of the money and 85% of the bets are with Denver

• Moneyline: Thunder -520, Nuggets +410

• Total (229.5): Over/Under -110

Head to Head

• Game 1: Nuggets won 121-119 at Oklahoma City

  • Leading scorers: Jokic (42) | Gilgeous-Alexander (33)

  • Leading rebounds: Jokic (22) | Gilgeous-Alexander (10)

  • Leading assists: Jokic and Murray (6) | Gilgeous-Alexander (8)

Rangers’ Heim and Garcia are Combined 8-15 with 5 HR vs. Boston’s Houck

• Bryan Reynolds (Pirates) vs. Sonny Gray (Cardinals): 7-21, 2 2B, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 8 K)

• Kyle Tucker (Cubs) vs. Robbie Ray (Giants): 4-10, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 5 K

• Pete Alonso (Mets) vs. Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks): 5-16, 1 2B, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 1 K

• Jeff McNeil (Mets) vs. Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks): 2-9, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 K

• Alex Bregman (Red Sox) vs. Tyler Mahle (Rangers): 4-10, 1 2B, 2 K

• Jonah Heim (Rangers) vs. Tanner Houck (Red Sox): 4-7, 1 2B, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 1 K

• Adolis Garcia (Rangers) vs. Tanner Houck (Red Sox): 4-8, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 3 BB, 2 K

• Luis Arraez (Padres) vs. Max Fried (Yankees): 6-10, 1 BB, 1 K

• Manny Machado (Padres) vs. Max Fried (Yankees): 2-18, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 4 BB, 3 K)

• Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) vs. Jonathan Cannon (White Sox): 3-7, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB

In the News 

• A look at why defensive coordinator Jim Knowles moved from Ohio State to Penn State: “it's gotten awkward.”

• The Cowboys traded draft picks to get Steelers wide receiver George Pickens after Pittsburgh traded for DK Metcalf.

• Utah’s NHL team finally has a permanent name, the Utah Mammoth.

• Notre Dame and Clemson signed a 12-year scheduling agreement to try and spark a football rivalry.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3pm: PSG vs. Arsenal in Champions League action on CBS (PSG lead 1-0 on aggregate)

• 7pm: Knicks vs. Celtics for Game 2 on TNT (or Panthers vs. Maple Leafs for Game 2 on ESPN)

• 9:30pm: Nuggets vs. Thunder for Game 2 on TNT (or Stars vs. Jets for Game 1 on ESPN)

Photo of the Day