Cavs are 3.5-Point Favorites (-114) in a Practically Must-Win Game at Indiana

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: NBA lottery odds

• Top 10 Bets: Mitchell attempted 30 shots in both games vs. Pacers

• Matchups: Rangers have a .394 OBP vs. tonight’s Cy Young-winning starter

• Public Betting: 74% of the money and 61% of the bets are with OKC

• Overtime: College football GMs are changing the sport

The NBA Draft lottery is on Monday, when we’ll learn who gets Cooper Flagg. The team with the worst record hasn’t won the first pick since 2018, when Phoenix drafted Deandre Ayton over Luka Doncic, Trae Young and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That was the fourth year in a row the worst team got the first pick after 10 straight seasons went by without it happening. Before the Hawks won the lottery last season with the 9th-worst record and a 3% chance, the team with the 2nd-worst record had won three years in a row.

While sportsbooks have odds on the lottery, it’s pure luck: Utah (which had the worst record this season) Washington and Charlotte all have the best odds to win and all are +550 at FanDuel. Here are the mathematical, not betting, odds for each team:

• Utah, Washington and Charlotte: 14% (top four: 52.1%)

• New Orleans: 12.5% (top four: 48.1%)

• Philadelphia: 10.5% (top four: 42.1%)

• Brooklyn: 9.0% (top four: 37.2%)

• Toronto: 7.5% (top four: 31.9%)

• San Antonio: 6.0% (top four: 26.3%)

• Rockets (via Phoenix): 3.8% (top four: 17.3%)

• Portland: 3.8% (top four: 16.9%)

• Dallas: 1.8% (top four: 8.5%)

• Chicago: 1.8% (top four: 8.0%)

• Atlanta (via Sacramento): 0.8% (top four: 3.8%)

• San Antonio (via Atlanta): 0.8% (top four: 3.4%)

In today’s newsletter, Craig gives you his top-10 bets of the day across the NBA Playoffs and MLB. We also have 15 MLB pitcher vs. batter matchups and take a look at where the betting public is across 17 games.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. ESPN has a rundown of the biggest roster holes left to fill for every NFL team.

Mitchell Shot 13-30 and 15-30 in the 2 Losses to Indiana in Cleveland

By Craig Williams

Donovan Mitchell over 35.5 points + assists (-115 at bet365)
We expect Mitchell to continue shouldering a heavy load for the Cavs, who almost certainly need to win Game 3 to remain alive in the series — no NBA team has ever won a series after falling behind 3-0. Mitchell has attempted 30 shot attempts in each of the series’ first two contests, and it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which he doesn’t hoist up another large volume of shots. The Cavs succeeded throughout the regular season with Mitchell taking a step back, and while that same exact formula may not be feasible, we expect Mitchell to keep his teammates involved in Game 3 like he did with nine assists in Game 2.

Pacers under 114.5 points (-118 at FanDuel)
It’s essentially a do-or-die spot for the Cavs as they hit the road down 0-2, and it doesn’t appear as though the Cavs can outscore the Pacers. Even if the Cavs get their players back from injury — namely Darius Garland and Evan Mobley — it’s a lot to expect them to be ready to fire on all cylinders. As a team though, the Cavs can lean on a defense that performed well overall — No. 8 in defensive efficiency on the season — and on the road, where they ranked ninth. This is a spot in which we expect the Cavs to put everything on the table, and circumstances suggest that will need to happen on the defensive end of the floor.

Pacers +3.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
The Cavs will throw everything they can at the Pacers in order to secure a foothold in the series. However, they’ll need to do so in Indianapolis, where the Pacers are 3-0 straight-up and 2-1 against the spread in the playoffs. The Pacers have also had the Cavs’ number this season, winning five of six matchups overall. Given the rash of injuries to key Cavs’ players, it’s reasonable to fade the idea of a convincing road victory — if they even have the answers to secure a victory in the first place. Whether or not the Pacers ultimately win Game 3, we’re leaning on them to keep things close.

Thunder moneyline (-200 at BetRivers)
We saw all four rested home teams fall in their series openers, perhaps struggling with rust. But the Thunder quickly found their peak form en route to a blowout Game 2 victory. The Thunder certainly haven’t manhandled the Nuggets like some of their other foes — splitting their six contests — including playoffs — 3-3 straight-up and against the spread. However, they have maintained an elite level of offensive and defensive efficiency through six playoff games, and own the best net rating among all postseason participants. The Thunder were the only team to post a double-digit net rating this season, and even if Game 3 proves to be more competitive, we expect the visitors to roll.

Nuggets win 1st quarter (+122 at FanDuel)
In spite of the blowout in Game 2, the Nuggets stole home court advantage and will enter Game 3 with the opportunity to reclaim the series lead. The Nuggets ranked 10th in first-quarter margin during the regular season, and they’ve split six games with the Thunder 3-3 — both straight-up and against the spread — including playoffs. In their two home games against the Thunder, they have a +3 advantage in the first quarter. They’re 24-11 following a loss, and we expect them to come out sharp in front of their home crowd and behind talisman Nikola Jokic.

Nikola Jokic over 50.5 points + rebounds + assists (-118 at DraftKings)
The Nuggets go as their big man goes, and we expect Jokic to set the tone at home after the Nuggets suffered a blowout loss — and after Jokic, himself, struggled en route to an 8.5 game score, his lowest of the season. His numbers across four regular-season matchups against the Thunder were gaudy — 24.5 points, 15.8 rebounds, and 11.5 assists. And he posted 70 combined points, rebounds and assists in the Nuggets Game 1 upset victory. Win or lose, we’re banking on a vintage performance from the Joker.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 39.5 points + assists (-118 at FanDuel)
SGA, the presumptive 2024-25 MVP winner, has enjoyed a strong series, and we expect the Thunder to follow his lead as they hit the road. Gilgeous-Alexander’s fingerprints have been all over the series’ first two contests — as one would expect — and that does not figure to change in Denver. SGA averaged 30.3 points, 6.5 assists in four regular-season matchups against the Nuggets before compiling 33.5 points and 8 assists across the series’ first two contests. The Thunder’s secondary cast is young, but experienced enough to handle themselves on the road, and will provide SGA with the support he needs to hit the over.

MLB

Athletics over 2.5 runs first 5 innings (-115 at DraftKings)
The Yankees are giving the ball to Will Warren as they open their first West Coast trip of the season against the Athletics. Warren has struggled immensely in four road starts thus far, posting a 7.07 ERA and 1.79 WHIP across 14 innings. He’s struggling with walks and keeping the ball in the yard, trends that threaten to hurt him against an Athletics team that is 14-8 since April 15. They rank top 10 in a number of offensive categories over that span, including hard-hit percentage, ISO, home runs, strikeout rate, and wOBA. Unless Warren is able to begin smoothing over his rough edges — especially on the road — the Athletics will have opportunities to put runs on the board early.

Yankees over 5.5 runs (-105 at ESPNBET)
The Yankees had an off day between their series-finale win against the Padres and their opener against the Athletics in Sacramento. Cross-country travel isn’t easy, but we’d be more weary of a sluggish start to the weekend had they gone straight into the series. As it stands, we’re looking at the over for the entire game for the Yankees, who own the MLB’s top marks across a number of categories, including wOBA, ISO, and home runs — in addition to top-10 ranks in a number of other categories. Sutter Health Park is playing as the second-most hitter friendly park behind Coors Field, and the Athletics’ bullpen features a 4.54 ERA on the season.

Mets vs. Cubs over 7.5 runs (-124 at FanDuel) 
The Mets and Cubs appear to be headed for a competitive series on paper. Even though they’re entering the weekend 5-5 over their past 10, they’re both leading their respective divisions. The Cubs’ lineup is potent on the road, entering tonight’s contest with a .836 OPS away from Wrigley. They’ll have their work cut out for them against the Mets’ pitching, which has excelled at home. However, their saving grace may be a bullpen that has slipped in form in recent weeks. That’s a significant trend to consider with Clay Holmes taking the hill for the Mets. Holmes has been effective, but he’s only completed six innings in two of seven starts. As far as the Mets, they own the league’s seventh-best wOBA after a sluggish offensive start to the season. Not to mention, Juan Soto is heating up, posting a 1.116 OPS over his past 10 games. 

Freeman is 6-12 with 1 Home Run and 4 RBI Against Arizona’s Rodriguez

Tarik Skubal (Tigers) vs. Rangers — 6:40pm

• Season: 3-2, 2.21 ERA, 7 starts, 40.2 innings, 35 hits, 10 ER, 4 HR, 5 BB, 48 K

• Matchup: Current Rangers hitters have 61 at bats against Skubal and combine for a .394 OBP (21 hits, 5 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 4 BB, 12 K)

  • Corey Seager: 6-9, 1 2B

  • Marcus Semien: 3-7, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BB

  • Adolis Garcia: 4-11, 2 2B, 3 RBI, 1 K

Jameson Taillon (Cubs) @ Mets — 7:10pm

• Season: 2-1, 3.86 ERA, 7 starts, 39.2 innings, 33 hits, 17 ER, 6 HR, 8 BB, 31 K

• Matchup: Current Mets hitters have 74 at bats against Taillon and combine for a .173 OBP (12 hits, 2 2B, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 1 BB, 20 K)

  • Pete Alonso: 2-9, 1 HR, 2 RBI

  • Francisco Lindor: 2-13, 4 K

  • Juan Soto: 1-11, 1 RBI, 5 K

Eduardo Rodriguez (Diamondbacks) vs. Dodgers — 9:40pm

• Season: 1-3, 5.92 ERA, 7 starts, 38.0 innings, 44 hits, 25 ER, 7 HR, 12 BB, 45 K

• Matchup: Current Dodgers hitters have 79 at bats against Rodriguez and combine for a .376 OBP (26 hits, 3 2B, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 6 BB, 20 K)

  • Freddie Freeman: 6-12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB, 4 K

  • Michael Conforto: 2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI

  • Shohei Ohtani: 3-13, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 4 BB, 5 K

Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays) @ Mariners — 9:40pm

• Season: 2-3, 3.83 ERA, 7 starts, 40.0 innings, 25 hits, 17 ER, 4 HR, 12 BB, 37 K

• Matchup: Current Mariners hitters have 109 at bats against Gausman and combine for a .226 OBP (20 hits, 1 2B, 8 HR, 11 RBI, 6 BB, 37 K)

  • Cal Raleigh: 5-11, 3 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 5 K

  • Dylan Moore: 2-7, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 3 K

  • Randy Arozarena: 3-14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 5 K

Luis Castillo (Mariners) vs. Blue Jays — 9:40pm

• Season: 3-2, 3.29 ERA, 7 starts, 38.1 innings, 35 hits, 14 ER, 3 HR, 16 BB, 30 K

• Matchup: Current Blue Jays hitters have 117 at bats against Castillo and combine for a .270 OBP (28 hits, 10 2B, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 5 BB, 29 K)

  • Alejandro Kirk: 4-8, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 K

  • Bo Bichette: 5-18, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 3 K

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 4-16, 2 2B, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 5 K

Spread Money is with OKC (74% at -5.5) to Go Up 2-1 in Denver

NBA

• Cavaliers (-3.5, -114) @ Pacers: 77% of the money and 65% of the bets are with Cleveland

• Thunder (-5.5, -110) @ Nuggets: 74% of the money and 61% of the bets are with OKC

MLB

• Braves (-1.5, +112) @ Pirates: 68% of the money and 61% of the bets are with Atlanta

• Tigers (-1.5, -118) vs. Rangers: 93% of the money and 82% of the bets are with Detroit

• Cardinals (-1.5, +152) @ Nationals: 76% of the money and 74% of the bets are with Washington

• Brewers (-1.5, +142) @ Rays: 57% of the money is with Milwaukee but 62% of the bets are with Tampa Bay

• Mets (-1.5, +134) vs. Cubs: 53% of the money is with New York but 59% of the bets are with Chicago

• Phillies (-1.5, +136) @ Guardians: 53% of the money and 55% of the best are with Cleveland

• Red Sox (-1.5, +136) @ Royals: 76% of the money and bets are with Kansas City

• Marlins (-1.5, +112) @ White Sox: 62% of the money and 53% of the bets are with Miami

• Giants (-1.5, +155) @ Twins: The money is split 50/50 but 58% of the bets are with Minnesota

• Astros (-1.5, +125) vs. Reds: 78% of the money and 66% of the bets are with Houston

• Padres (-1.5, -120) @ Rockies: 98% of the money and 85% of the bets are with San Diego

• Orioles (-1.5, +115) @ Angels: 54% of the money is with Baltimore but 54% of the bets are with LA

• Dodgers (-1.5, +146) @ Diamondbacks: 78% of the money and 69% of the bets are with LA

• Mariners (-1.5, +152) vs. Blue Jays: 71% of the money and 54% of the bets are with Seattle

• Yankees (-1.5, +102) @ Athletics: 82% of the money and 64% of the bets are with New York

In the News 

• How general managers and new front offices are changing college football.

• New Cowboys wide receiver George Pickens is looking forward to teaming up with fellow wideout CeeDee Lamb, saying “you won't be able to double everybody.”

• The Pirates fired manager Derek Shelton. Who could be the next MLB manager to go?

• Manchester United and Tottenham will face off in the Europa League final, with the winner earning a spot in next season’s Champions League.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 2:45pm: AC Milan vs. Bologna on Paramount+

• 7pm: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers for Game 3 on TNT

• 7:30pm: Cavaliers vs. Pacers for Game 3 on ESPN

• 8:10pm: Giants vs. Twins on AppleTV+

• 9:30pm: Stars vs. Jets for Game 2 on TNT

• 10pm: Thunder vs. Nuggets for Game 3 on ESPN

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