Celtics and Clippers are at Home, so Look for More Points Tonight

The NBA Playoffs continue to be predicable, until they’re not. The title favorites are getting the job done, but chaos reigns elsewhere. Few expected the Knicks to give away the opportunity to clinch their first playoff series at Madison Square Garden since 1999 last night, but they did. And even the biggest Milwaukee fans had trouble believing the Bucks could beat the Pacers without Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, but they won by 23 and the two stars could be ready to play in Game 6.

In today’s newsletter, Jason is covering the Celtics’ chances to close out their series at home and Kyrie Irving’s chances to have another big night for the Mavs in a game that should see a lot of points. On the diamond, Malcolm is tracking a pitchers’ duel in the Mets/Cubs matchup and following the Twins’ nine-game winning streak. That streak is even more impressive when you realize Minnesota started so slowly that they’re still in fourth place in the Central.

Abe

• The Boston Celtics scored 108.5 points per 100 possessions in their 102-88 win in Game 4. That was actually their lowest output of the playoffs after they shot just a 50% effective field goal percentage. Game 2 was the only other time the Celtics struggled offensively, but they came back with 125.6 points per 100 possessions and turned the ball over just 6.1% of the time in Game 3. Look for the Celtics to explode offensively back at home tonight. That’ll help push the total to the Over. Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics OVER 199.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

• You could’ve guessed where I’m going next! The Celtics have scored at least 125.6 points per 100 possessions in four of their last six games, including two final regular season games. They can beat you shooting the ball, but they can also effectively add an above-average amount of offensive rebounds and keep turnovers down. They’ll also feed off the home crowd energy and wear down the Heat tonight. Boston Celtics -14 (-108 at FanDuel)

• Without Kawhi Leonard, the Clippers scored 116 points and beat the Mavericks on the road to even the series at two. James Harden and Paul George scored 33 points and took under 20 shots each. Los Angeles was super efficient from the floor, shooting an effective field goal percentage of 65%. However, the Clippers also let the Mavericks back in that game after leading by 31 points. Despite hanging on, Los Angeles allowed 38.1% of offensive rebounds and a very high free-throw rate. Tonight’s game will likely be similarly high-scoring. Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks OVER 207.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

• Bam Adebayo hauled in 17 rebounds in Game 4. However, he hadn’t added more than 10 rebounds in any of the three games prior in this series. As mentioned earlier, the Celtics shouldn’t have problems scoring in tonight’s game. If that’s the case, Adebayo won’t have enough opportunities to add at least 11 rebounds. Bam Adebayo UNDER 10.5 Rebounds (+128 at BetRivers)

• There have been times when Kyrie Irving is quiet and isn’t aggressive. Game 4 wasn’t one of them. Irving contributed 40 points, hitting 14-of-25 shots, including 6-of-12 from downtown in a wild attempt to help the Mavericks come back from down 31 points against the Clippers. Irving has scored 28.8 points per game this series. Another 30-point performance wouldn’t be surprising. Kyrie Irving OVER 24.5 Points (-140 at DraftKings)

• Russell Westbrook’s performance in the postseason has been controversial. He’s run his mouth more than he’s scored buckets. However, his points-rebounds-assist number has gotten hilariously low. It’s time to buy in. Westbrook has taken eight or more shots in three of four playoff games and has contributed 6.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per night. This is a guy who once added 30-point triple-doubles regularly. Even in the regular season, Westbrook averaged 11.1 points, 5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists. If he just focuses on basketball, he’ll achieve this number. Russell Westbrook OVER 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (+106 at BetRivers)

• The Minnesota Twins, on a remarkable nine-game winning streak, look to continue their dominant stretch. Bailey Ober, who has given up two or fewer runs in his last four starts, gives Minnesota an edge, especially against a White Sox team struggling offensively. Chicago starter Chris Flexen has had issues with control and effectiveness, marked by a 5.11 ERA and a concerning ratio of 13 strikeouts to 10 walks over 24.2 innings. Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-130 at FanDuel) 

• Minnesota's offense has been explosive, scoring five or more runs in eight of their last 11 games. Given this offensive surge and the Twins' recent history against the White Sox, where they have won three of five games this season by three or more runs, a high-scoring game is likely. Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox Over 9 runs (-104 at FanDuel) 

• The Mets' Jose Butto, sporting a 2.86 ERA, and the Cubs' Shota Imanaga, with a stellar 0.98 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning, set the stage for a quiet first inning. The Cubs' offense has been sluggish, particularly at the start of games, and with Imanaga's strong early-game performances, runs should be hard to come by. Mets vs. Cubs No Runs First Inning (-125 at FanDuel) 

• The Tampa Bay Rays are gearing up for a decisive game against the Brewers, bringing extra motivation after recent on-field tensions. Rays starter Zach Eflin is showing improvement and nearing top form, while the Brewers' Colin Rea, who had an unexpectedly strong start, faltered against the Yankees — signaling potential regression. With the Brewers' early offensive surge likely unsustainable and their closer situation unresolved, Tampa's bullpen could tip the scales in the series finale. Tampa Bay Moneyline (-126 at FanDuel) 

• St. Louis Cardinals' road games have trended toward low scoring, with 12 of 17 going Under. Their bats have cooled significantly, as they’re hitting just .200 recently. Both the Cardinals and Tigers have struggled offensively and in clutch situations, exacerbating their inability to score. With neither side showing reliability at the plate and both pitchers capable of average outings, we’re looking for a low-scoring game. Cardinals @ Tigers Under 8.5 Runs (-118 at FanDuel) 

• Guardians starter Triston McKenzie finds a favorable matchup against the Astros, who have struggled against right-handed pitching and rank poorly in on-base and run-scoring in early innings. With McKenzie consistently staying Under in runs allowed in most of his recent starts and road games, the trend suggests he could manage to keep the Astros' bats quiet. Triston McKenzie Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+105 at FanDuel) 

• Historically, matchups between the Royals and Blue Jays have trended toward low scores, with 8 of their last 10 meetings going Under. Royals righty Seth Lugo should be instrumental in maintaining this trend, as he comes in with a 1.66 ERA across 38 innings and a solid 4-1 record. His performance has consistently contributed to games staying Under, particularly in his last three starts. Both teams have shown limited offensive output recently, with Kansas City and Toronto batting under .225 and .220, respectively, in their last 10 games. Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt, despite a rough outing against the Dodgers, should revert to his usual reliable form. This matchup is shaping up to be another pitcher-dominated game, and the early innings could be particularly low-scoring. Royals vs. Blue Jays F5 Under 4.5 total runs (-125 at FanDuel) 

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