Tatum is Averaging 14 Points Below His Season Average vs. the Knicks, Celtics are 6.5-Point Favorites at MSG

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: NL West features three of the best teams in MLB

• Top 10 Bets: Tatum is scoring 14 points/game less than he did during the regular season vs. Knicks

• Matchups: Current Cubs hitters have a .406 average vs. tonight’s opposing starter

• Public Betting: Bettors are still with Minnesota with Curry out again

• Overtime: Will Giannis leave the Bucks this offseason?

The NL West features teams with three of the top six records in Major League Baseball to start the season, along with the worst team (the historically bad 7-33 Rockies, who just fired their manager).

Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers have the league’s best record at 27-14 and remain the World Series favorite (+250). The Padres are just one game back, have won 8 of their past 11 games, right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. is hitting .320 and has nine home runs, and starter Michael King is 4-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 48 strikeouts in 44.2 innings. And the Giants, who finished two games under .500 last season, are just three games back from Los Angeles even after losing 7 of their past 12 (and three of those wins came against the Rockies).

FanDuel gives San Fransisco (+118) the eighth-best odds to make the six-team field in the National League playoffs, behind yet another division rival, Arizona (+102), which is 21-20 to start the year.

In today’s newsletter, Chris gives you his top 10 bets to watch across the NBA and NHL playoffs, and tennis from Rome. We also have 15 pitcher vs. batter matchups in MLB and a look at where the bettors are in 15 of today’s games.

— Abe Rakov

Tatum is Averaging Under 20 Points per Game vs. Knicks in Playoffs

By Chris Farley

Knicks +6.5 (-105 at BetOnline)
This is a massively important game for the Knicks. Going up 2-0 against last year's champions surprised everyone, but now that Boston won a game the home team Knicks are in danger of letting the series slip away if they drop another on Monday. The Celtics at just -6.5 presents value. If they could have closed out games one and two, two contests where they were up 20 points midway through the third quarter, this would be a much bigger number. Still, New York is at home and we highly doubt that Boston will shoot 50% from three-point land like they did in game three, considering they averaged just 25% (25-100) in two other games. This should be a dogfight.

Knicks vs. Celtics under 209.5 points (-110 at Bovada)
In general the Celtics shot at a ridiculous rate in Game 3, 50% from beyond the arc (20-40) and 48% from the field (40-83) with an 88.2% (15-17) completion percentage from the charity stripe to boot. On any given night the Celtics are capable of an offensive explosion, but the Knicks have played formidable defense in the playoffs, especially in the second half (ranked 2nd only behind the Thunder in defensive efficiency). The Celtics, who are the NBA's 2nd-best overall defense in the playoffs and a top-5 unit this season, have been very effective against the Knicks, limiting their foe to just 97.3 points per game. Game four is a crucial inflection point in the series, and we'd be shocked if either offense found a way to get in-rhythm. 

Jayson Tatum under 27.5 points (-115 at Bovada)
This season Tatum put up 34 points per game against his rival. In the playoffs — not so much. Of course, New York's defense is not the same as what it showed before the playoffs. For long stretches New York was one of the worst defenses in the NBA, and only late in the season did they start to find any semblance of continuity in their resistance. Apparently Tatum doesn't love how physical and tenacious the Knicks' defense has been, particularly against OG Anunoby, one of the better defenders in the association. At Madison Square Garden against a Knicks' team that's now feeling more pressure, we see Tatum falling far below his norm once again (only 19.3 points per game in the series). 

Karl-Anthony Towns over 4.5 first quarter points (+102 at FanDuel)
The Knicks are going to need more from Towns. The big man has been productive in three games against Boston, scoring 21, 21, and 14 in his past three starts, but his field goal percentage plummeted in a bigger role in game three (5-18, 27.8%). Jalen Brunson is a brilliant shot-creator, but he can't do it all himself. The Knicks have relied too heavily on the former Villanova guard; Brunson is averaging 24 shot attempts per game in the playoffs, second only to Paulo Banchero. Towns is capable of being their reliable next-man-up, and it's the first quarter where he's done the most damage in the postseason (7.5 points per game). Coming off a bad showing, we like the dynamic center to show up early.

Timberwolves -5.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
The Warriors are in trouble. Reports are swirling that Steph Curry could make his return in Game 4, but it's likely nothing more than hopeful speculation. Most sources around the team suggest he won't have a shot to return until Game 6, which means the Golden State offense will continue on life-support. In Game 3 Minnesota applied rigorous pressure on every shot they tried to take, forcing the Warriors into just 81 shots and 43.2% from the field. The T-Wolves weren't much better (43.9%), but in the fourth quarter they woke up, anchored by 13-points from Anthony Edwards, and outscored the Warriors 33-24. We love that momentum carrying over into game four, especially with ANT's renewed confidence.

Timberwolves vs. Warriors under 200.5 points (-112 at Bovada)
This series is taking on the same vibes that most other series are, and it's resulting in extremely physical, confrontational energy in every possession. In Game 3 both teams combined for just 163 total shots, barely enough to get near 200 points. The pace was extremely slow (94 possessions per game), and if it weren't for some effective three-point shooting (they combined for 23-57 from beyond the arc, 40%), the score would have been far lower. Very likely without Steph Curry and relying far too much on inconsistent scorers like Buddy Hield, the Warriors are limping offensively and will need to rely on the same first-class defense that got them a game-one victory. We project this ends at 185.

Anthony Edwards over 27.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Coming alive suddenly in the fourth quarter of Game 3 (13 points, 3-4 from beyond the arc), Edwards put on a show to push Minnesota into a win. Before those final 12 minutes he was relatively quiet, scoring just 66 points in the other 11 quarters. But we think ANT smells blood after his scintillating finish on Saturday, which spells bad news for the Dubs and their chances. Despite shooting just 42.8% from the floor in Games 1 and 2, Edwards had plenty of open shots and successful drives to the rim; he just came up short under pressure. In a position to win the series at home and after taking 28 shots in game three, we like ANT to attack from the tipoff and stack up points on Monday.

NHL

Capitals vs. Hurricanes over 5.5 goals (+102 at Bovada and FanDuel)
Over three games against the top-seeded Capitals, Carolina has amassed a whopping 89 shots on goal compared to just 55 for its opponent. In the playoffs no team has taken better advantage of the power play, scoring nine goals when they gain an advantage, and their 272 shots are second only to Edmonton. Now down 2-1 in the series, the Capitals were stymied terribly in Game 3, earning just 21 shots on goal and immediately slowed after Carolina stuffed two straight scoring chances in the first few minutes. Washington has battle-tested veterans who have faced these scenarios before, and while we don't see the Hurricanes slowing down at home, regression is due for a Caps' offense that was top-3 in the regular season.  

Tennis

Qinwen Zheng wins 2-0 (-135 at DraftKings)
Bianca Andreescu had a very impressive win over Elena Rybakina but we think much of that might be because of Rybakina, who’s been terribly inconsistent and involved in a controversial situation with her coach. Either way, few players in the world are as crisp and unbeatable as Zheng when she’s at her best, just ask her opponents in the Summer Olympics last year. She looks like the exact same player in Rome. Zheng had a slow start to 2025 but is currently ranked #8 in the world for good reason. Her current form and incredible service game (85 aces in just 16 matches this year) should be too much for the Canadian, who's looked mostly terrible in a short stint this year (1-3 before Rome). 

Marta Kostyuk to win at least one set (-110 at DraftKings and FanDuel)
The Ukrainian is playing ultra-confident tennis right now, proving it in every contest that she's one of the game's rising stars. In Rome she has three straight-set wins and just 13 total games lost. Now the 27th-ranked player in the world, her 70% win-rate in service games is right up there with the most elite, a great sign for a competitor who still has room to improve. Needless to say, the sky's the limit for Kostyuk. Sabalenka needs no introduction and has been magnificent this year, holding securely onto her #1 ranking, but one has to wonder how motivated she'll be just two weeks before Roland Garros and with very little to gain at this juncture. We think Kostyuk can win this straight up but we'll play it more conservatively and bet on her winning at least one set.

Liberatore has 20 Ks vs. Current Phillies Batters to Just 10 Hits

Matthew Liberatore (Cardinals) @ Phillies — 6:45pm

• Season: 3-3, 3.07 ERA, 7 starts, 41.0 innings, 33 hits, 14 ER, 2 HR, 6 BB, 38 K

• Matchup: Current Phillies hitters have 53 at bats against Liberatore and combine for a .246 OBP (10 hits, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 20 K)

  • Trea Turner: 2-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

  • Bryce Harper: 1-7, 3 K

  • Kyle Schwarber: 0-8, 2 BB, 7 K

Jake Irvin (Nationals) @ Braves — 7:15pm

• Season: 2-1, 3.94 ERA, 8 starts, 48.0 innings, 41 hits, 21 ER, 9 HR, 14 BB, 33 K

• Matchup: Current Braves hitters have 72 at bats against Irvin and combine for a .278 OBP (15 hits, 5 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 7 BB, 16 K)

  • Austin Riley: 3-7, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K

  • Ozzie Albies: 2-6, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB

  • Michael Harris II: 3-12, 2 2B, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 3 K

Cal Quantrill (Marlins) @ Cubs — 7:40pm

• Season: 2-3, 7.11 ERA, 7 starts, 31.2 innings, 42 hits, 25 ER, 5 HR, 11 BB, 22 K

• Matchup: Current Cubs hitters have 69 at bats against Quantrill and combine for a .455 OBP (28 hits, 4 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 20 RBI, 7 BB, 13 K)

  • Kyle Tucker: 3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI

  • Nico Hoerner: 5-8, 1 3B, 5 RBI, 1 BB

  • Nicky Lopez: 6-18, 3 2B, 2 RBI, 5 K

Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks) @ Giants — 9:45pm on FS1

• Season: 3-2, 4.09 ERA, 8 starts, 44.0 innings, 34 hits, 20 ER< 6 HR, 12 BB, 33 K

• Matchup: Current Giants hitters have 151 at bats against Kelly and combine for a .276 OBP (33 hits, 8 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 5 BB, 8 K)

  • Willy Adames: 7-19, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 6 K

  • Wilmer Flores: 5-22, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K

  • LaMonte Wade Jr.: 6-35, 1 2B, 2 HR< 4 RBI, 2 BB, 6 K

Justin Verlander (Giants) vs. Diamondbacks

• Season: 0-2, 4.50 ERA, 8 starts, 42.0 innings, 40 hits, 21 ER, 6 HR, 15 BB, 35 K

• Matchup: Current Diamondbacks hitters have 95 at bats against Verlander and combine for a .212 OBP (17 hits, 2 2B, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 3 BB, 28 K)

  • Pavin Smith: 3-6, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 1 K

  • Eugenio Suarez: 5-28, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 15 K

  • Ketel Marte: 2-16, 1 2B, 1 BB, 4 K

Bettors are with Celtics (65%) and Timberwolves (67%) on the Road

NBA

• Celtics (-6.5, -110) @ Knicks: 65% of the money and 53% of the bets are with Boston

• Timberwolves (-5.5, -108) @ Warriors: 67% of the money and 53% of the bets are with Minnesota

NHL

• Capitals @ Hurricanes (-1.5, +119): The money is 50/50 but 60% of the bets are with Washington

• Golden Knights @ Oilers (-125): 82% of the money and 71% of the bets are with Edmonton

MLB

• Brewers (-1.5, +126) @ Guardians (+1.5, -154): 53% of the money is with Milwaukee but 61% of the bets are with Cleveland

• Red Sox @ Tigers (+1.5, -184): 68% of the money and 72% of the bets are with Detroit

• Cardinals @ Phillies (-1.5, +120): 73% of the money and 58% of the bets are with Philadelphia

• Pirates @ Mets (-1.5, +134): 74% of the money and 68% of the bets are with New York

• Nationals @ Braves (-1.5, +108): 71% of the money and 62% of the bets are with Atlanta

• Marlins @ Cubs (-1.5, -118): 96% of the money and 89% of the bets are with Chicago

• Rockies @ Rangers (-1.5, -142): 98% of the money and 92% of the bets are with Texas

• Royals @ Astros (+1.5, -205): 80% of the money and 77% of the bets are with Houston  

• Yankees (-1.5, +110) @ Mariners: 87% of the money and 72% of the bets are with New York

• Angels @ Padres (-1.5, -110): 96% of the money and 89% of the bets are with San Diego

• Diamondbacks @ Giants (+1.5, -192): 60% of the money and 69% of the bets are with San Francisco

In the News 

• ESPN’s Shams Charania is reporting that Giannis Antetokounmpo is “open-minded about exploring whether his best long-term fit is remaining in Milwaukee.”

• Will the Saints tank for Arch Manning after Derek Carr’s retirement?

• Yahoo Sports picks their 10 biggest moves of the NFL offseason so far.

• A day after he was backed by the team’s general manager, Rockies manager Bud Black was fired in his ninth season in Colorado.

• Champions League spots are still up for grabs at the Premier League season winds down.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 2:45pm: Atalanta vs. Roma in Serie A action on Paramount+

• 7pm: Capitals vs. Hurricanes (2-1) on TNT

• 7:30pm: Celtics vs. Knicks (2-1) on ESPN

• 9:30pm: Golden Knights vs. Oilers (2-1) on TNT

• 9:45pm: Diamondbacks vs. Giants on FS1

• 10pm: Timberwolves (2-1) vs. Warriors on ESPN

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