Celtics (-180) Favored to Keep Series Alive without Tatum + 15 MLB Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups to Watch

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: A look at the upcoming WNBA season

• Top 10 Bets: Porzingis is averaging just 9.8 points + rebounds + assists vs. Knicks

• Matchups: Giants’ Chapman is 7-16 lifetime against Diamondbacks’ Rodriguez

• Public Betting: Bettors think Warriors (+11) are too big of underdogs

• Overtime: Pete Rose to the Hall of Fame?

The WNBA season tips off on Friday with Paige Bueckers’ professional debut, Brittney Griner’s first game with the Atlanta Dream and the Golden State Valkyries’ franchise-opener. Caitlin Clark (+200) is the favorite to be MVP, followed by A'ja Wilson (+230) and Napheesa Collier (+300). Bueckers is -370 to win Rookie of the Year, with the Storm’s French center Dominique Malonga at +550. Clark’s coach, the Fever’s Stephanie White, is -105 to win Coach of the Year.

Here is where FanDuel set each team’s regular season wins total:

• New York: 32.5 (Over -108, Under -112)

• Indiana: 31.5 (Over +120, Under -148)

• Las Vegas: 30.5 (Over -128, Under +104)

• Minnesota: 30.5 (Over -122, Under +100)

• Seattle: 25.5 (Over +116, Under -142)

• Phoenix: 24.5 (Over -148, Under +120)

• Atlanta: 21.5 (Over +100, Under -122)

• Los Angeles: (Over +110, Under -134)

• Chicago: 19.5 (Over +106, Under -130)

• Dallas: 18.5 (Over -114, Under -106)

• Washington: 14.5 (Over +106, Under -130)

• Connecticut: 10.5 (Over -105, Under -115)

• Golden State: 8.5 (Over +102, Under -124)

— Abe Rakov

P.S. Jayson Tatum’s availability for next season is in question after he underwent surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles yesterday.

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Boston is 9-2 this Season with Tatum Out, Including a Win in Round 1 of the Playoffs

By Jack Dougherty

Celtics moneyline (-180 at FanDuel)
Even with Jayson Tatum out of the lineup, the Celtics aren’t going to go down easily. Boston has gone 9-2 this season when Tatum sits out, including a nine-point victory against the Magic in the first round of the playoffs. We’re getting a price break on the more talented team in the series with its back against the wall. The Celtics still have a ton of bodies to throw at Jalen Brunson—all they have to do is avoid the disastrous quarter that’s plagued them in this series.

Kristaps Porzingis under 22.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110 at DraftKings)
This is a puzzling line for how Porzingis has looked in this series. The Celtics big man is still dealing with an illness that’s preventing him from playing his typical workload, and his play has suffered because of it. Through four games, Porzingis is averaging just 9.8 points + rebounds + assists in 17.5 minutes per game. Sportsbooks are expecting Porzingis to be busier in Game 5 with Tatum out of the lineup, but he just doesn’t have it in him to play big minutes at a high level right now. 

MLB

Phillies -0.5 first 5 innings (-135 at DraftKings)
This is a huge pitching mismatch in favor of the Phillies. Jesus Luzardo has been lights out with his 2.11 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 31.2% whiff rate. The left-hander has given up more than two earned runs just once in eight starts this season. On the other side, Erick Fedde has nightmares thinking about this Phillies lineup. Philly hitters are batting .346 with a .408 xwOBA and a .563 xSLG in 94 plate appearances against Fedde. This is a good spot for the Phils to jump out to an early lead. 

Bryce Harper 2+ total bases (+105 at DraftKings)
The biggest reason Fedde has terrible numbers against the Phillies? Well, it’s because Harper exists. In 27 career plate appearances against the right-hander, Harper is batting .500 and slugging 1.364 with a whopping six home runs. We’re getting a decent price on this prop because Harper has gone hitless in four of his past five starts, but this matchup is too juicy to pass up. 

Ryan Weathers under 3.5 strikeouts (-114 at FanDuel)
This will be a tough spot for Weathers to rack up strikeouts. The Cubs have the lowest strikeout rate against lefties in MLB since the start of April (16.8%). They also have the fourth-lowest whiff rate (23.0%) and the sixth-lowest chase rate (26.3%) in the league this season. If that isn’t enough, Weathers has a minuscule 4.3% strikeout rate in his career against current Cubs hitters. 

Golf

Bryson DeChambeau top-10 finish (+110 at DraftKings)
DeChambeau is a popular pick to win the PGA Championship, but we’re aiming a bit safer with a top-10 bet. It’s hard not to find a reason to love DeChambeau this week. The LIV star won his last start in Korea, and he finished T2, T5 and solo 5th in his three starts before that. As for his major championship form, he has a win and three other top-six finishes in his past five starts. Quail Hollow is a bomber’s paradise that demands distance off the tee and strong putting from 5-15 feet, and those are DeChambeau’s two biggest strengths. 

Joaquin Niemann top-20 finish (+135 at FanDuel)
This has to be the week Niemann finally shows up in a major, right? The Chilean is too talented to keep falling short in major championships, and he’s playing some of the best golf in the world right now. Incredibly, Niemann has won three times in his past six starts on LIV Golf. Remember, these are fields featuring DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka and multiple other major champions. Niemann bombs the ball off the tee, is an excellent iron player and has gained strokes from putting in four of his last five starts.

Dean Burmester top-40 finish (+150 at DraftKings)
Burmester is a great player to target on long golf courses that demand distance off the tee. Quail Hollow will play especially long this week due to the rain in the Charlotte area, so carry distance will matter even more than it normally does here. Burmester ranks second on LIV behind only DeChambeau this season in driving distance (328.4), and he’s finished T19 or better in three of his last five major starts. The South African is a great fit for the course this week. 

Max Homa to make the cut (-130 at DraftKings)
We’ve been hard on Homa this year, but this price has dropped too much. After a terrible start to the season, the American finished T12 at The Masters and notched a T30 at the Truist Championship. Homa’s iron play was abysmal for most of the season, but he’s now gained strokes on approach in two of his past three starts. Now that he has his confidence back, Homa should be in store for a solid week at a course he loves. In his past four starts at Quail Hollow, Homa has a win and two more top-10 finishes. 

Tom Kim to miss the cut (+115 at DraftKings)
There’s no reason this prop should be priced at plus-money. Quail Hollow is all about driving it long, being sharp with your long irons and putting well on these Bermudagrass greens. Well, Kim ranks 120th on the PGA Tour this season in strokes gained from off the tee, 144th in strokes gained from putting and 145th in approaches from 175-200 yards. The 22-year-old has just one finish better than T36 this year, and he’s coming off a T54 at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic, which was one of the weakest fields of the season.

Harper is 11-22 vs. Tonight’s Opposing Starter for Cardinals

1. Bryce Harper (Phillies) vs. Erick Fedde (Cardinals): 11-22, 1 2B, 6 HR, 9 RBI, 5 BB, 2 K

2. Matt Chapman (Giants) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (Diamondbacks): 7-16, 4 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 5 K

3. Ryan McMahon (Rockies) vs. Patrick Corbin (Rangers): 7-16, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 2 K

4. Brandon Lowe (Rays) vs. Chris Bassitt (Blue Jays): 5-11, 1 2B, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K

5. Alec Bohm (Phillies) vs. Sonny Gray (Cardinals — Game 2): 5-11, 1 2B, 3 RBI, 1 K

6. Manny Machado (Padres) vs. Kyle Hendricks (Angels): 9-20, 1 2B, 2 K

7. Brandon Nimmo (Mets) vs. Bailey Falter (Pirates): 5-12, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 4 K

8. Ryan O’Hearn (Orioles) vs. Bailey Ober (Twins): 5-12, 4 K

9. Aaron Judge (Yankees) vs. Luis Castillo (Mariners): 3-7, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 5 BB, 1 K

10. Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) vs. Erick Fedde (Cardinals): 3-7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K

11. Tyrone Taylor (Mets) vs. Bailey Falter (Pirates): 3-7, 1 2B, 1 K

12. Trea Turner (Phillies) vs. Sonny Gray (Cardinals — Game 2): 9-23, 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K

13. Victor Caratini (Astros) vs. Michael Lorenzen (Royals): 4-11, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 3 K

14. Alex Bregman (Red Sox) vs. Tarik Skubal (Tigers): 4-12, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 RBI, 2 K

15. CJ Abrams (Nationals) vs. Bryce Elder (Braves): 3-10, 0 K

Bettors are All-In with Knicks (+4.5) vs. Tatum-less Celtics

NBA

• Knicks (+4.5, -110) at Celtics: 79% of the money and 80% of the bets are with New York

• Warriors (+11, -112) at Timberwolves: 71% of the money and 72% of the bets are with Golden State

NHL

• Panthers at Maple Leafs (+128): 75% of the money and 58% of the bets are with Toronto

• Oilers (+116) at Golden Knights: 58% of the money and 57% of the bets are with Edmonton

MLB

• Twins at Orioles (+1.5, -205): 53% of the money and 65% of the bets are with Baltimore

• Cardinals at Phillies (-1.5, +114): 85% of the money and 65% of the bets are with the Phillies

• Brewers at Guardians (-1.5, +160): 54% of the money and 56% of the bets are with Cleveland

• Diamondbacks at Giants (+1.5, -200): 72% of the money and 76% of the bets are with San Francisco

• Yankees (-1.5, +140) at Mariners: 66% of the money and 53% of the bets are with the Yankees

• Red Sox at Tigers (-1.5, +104): 82% of the money and 71% of the bets are with Detroit

In the News 

• The Mavericks want Cooper Flagg and are uninterested in trading the No. 1 pick in the draft.

• Pete Rose and “Shoeless” Joe Jackson are now eligible for the Baseball Hall of Fame.

• The Trailblazers are up for sale and all the proceeds will go to charity.

• It’s not just Tatum, injuries are plaguing the NBA Playoffs more than usual.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 2pm: Milan vs. Bologna in the Coppa Italia on CBS Sports Network

• 7pm: Knicks (3-1) vs. Celtics on TNT (or Panthers vs. Maple Leafs, with series tied at 2, on ESPN)

• 8:45pm: St. Louis City vs. Sporting KC on FS1

• 9:30pm: Warriors vs. Timberwolves (3-1) on TNT (or Oilers, up 3-1, vs. Golden Knights on ESPN)

Photo of the Day