Mavs Sputtering Offense Looks Poised for a Strong Performance in Oklahoma City

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Caitlin Clark’s debut
- NBA: Cavs can keep it close
- MLB: Watch Alec Bohm
- Soccer: Is ManU motivated? 
- News: Preakness favorite scratched

Caitlin Clark finally looked human on a basketball court. She scored 20 points in the Fever’s 21-point loss to the Sun, and her 10 turnovers showed she will have an adjustment period like every rookie. The 10 giveaways were the most ever in a WNBA debut, and Clark didn’t score until there was 5:24 left in the second quarter. But the night was a success for the WNBA, as obviously because of Clark, the Sun sold out their first home opener since their inaugural season in Connecticut in 2003.

In today’s newsletter, Jason is tracking the Cavs to keep it close even with their injury woes and expects the Mavs to regroup offensively on the road. In baseball, Malcolm sees a few opportunities in the Rays v. Red Sox game. And on the pitch, Sam is looking for wins from Chelsea and Newcastle.

Cleveland Cavaliers +14.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
I stirred the pot thinking Jarrett Allen would return in Game 4. While he didn’t play, Donovan Mitchell also missed Game 4 with an injury. Now we’re uncertain if either will play in Game 5. So there’s that. With that said, the Cavaliers still covered the 8.5-point spread as underdogs in Game 4 despite playing without Allen and Mitchell. In an elimination game, the Cavaliers will do whatever they can to match Boston’s offensive output. 

Cavaliers vs. Celtics over 205 points (-110 at DraftKings)
In Game 4, Darius Garland scored 30 points and became the go-to guy in the offense. Evan Mobley added 19 points, and Max Strus began the game lights out from downtown. That helped the Cavaliers keep pace with the Celtics, scoring 111 points per 100 possessions with only 8.8% of turnovers. Boston will still likely win this game with a higher offensive rebounding rate and free throw rate. But if Cleveland minimizes turnovers, they’ll keep pace and help the over hit. 

Dallas Mavericks +4.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
After the Mavericks added a four-point victory in Game 3, the Thunder matched that with a four-point victory in Game 4. This series is getting tight. Ultimately, the Mavericks haven’t played their best offense in this series. Yet, their best offensive performance against the Thunder came in Game 2, on the road, when they shot a 56.7% effective field goal percentage. They’re back on the road tonight. 

Mavericks vs. Thunder under 213.5 points (-115 at BetMGM)
Although Dallas had its best offensive night in Game 2 against the Thunder, the Mavericks still only scored 124.2 points per 100 possessions. That’s an above-average rate but nothing super substantial. On the other hand, the Mavericks held the Thunder to a 42.3% effective field goal percentage in Game 4’s loss. The turnovers were down and the offensive rebounds reached 27.3% against the Mavericks. But overall, the defense forced tough mid-range jumpers. With Oklahoma City’s defense back in form after Game 4, the under is the play.

Evan Mobley under 2.5 assists (+115 at ESPNBet)
Evan Mobley will need to be a little more aggressive in Game 5 if Allen and Mitchell don’t play. Mobley has the size and ability to be the x-factor for Cleveland. However, he’s scored no more than 21 points in any game despite shooting nearly 63% from the field in this series. I’m expecting Mobley to be a little more selfish. He has to be if the Cavaliers have any chance to win. He’s easily the most skilled player on the roster and needs to go to work tonight. 

Daniel Gafford under 9.5 points (-125 at ESPNBet) 
Daniel Gafford began the series against the Thunder with at least 13 points in the first two games. However, he’s only added 18 points since, with 23 minutes or fewer in each of the last two games. In addition, Gafford has only attempted 12 shots in the previous two games, and of course, none of them have been from downtown. With low volume and fewer minutes, the under 9.5 points for Gafford is appealing.

Milwaukee Brewers moneyline (-148 at FanDuel) 
The Brewers have been displaying solid form recently, which positions them well in this pivotal series closer. In contrast, start Martin Perez's performance for the Pirates has been typically mediocre, aligning with his career standard of rarely intimidating the opposition. Although Brewers lefty Robert Gasser is somewhat untested this season with limited innings, the overall weakness of the Pirates’ lineup, coupled with their recent struggles, indicates an advantage for the Brewers.

Minnesota Twins Moneyline (-130 at FanDuel) 
The Twins have demonstrated strength at home, with starter Pablo Lopez showcasing exceptional pitching, particularly in key game settings. Meanwhile, Yankees righty Marcus Stroman’s track record against the Twins doesn’t inspire confidence. Given the Twins' current momentum and Lopez's dominance at home, they appear well-prepared for this matchup.

Rays vs. Red Sox under 8.5 runs (-120 at FanDuel)
With Taj Bradley and Tanner Houck as the starting pitchers, both the Rays and Red Sox boast strong arms that have kept runs to a minimum. Houck, in particular, has excelled over 52 innings with a stellar 2.24 ERA and consistent strikeout numbers. Given their performances and the overall pitching strength on display, the scoreboard is expected to reflect a low total, hinting at a tighter, more strategic game.

Rays vs. Red Sox no runs first inning (-140 at FanDuel)
The Rays have found it challenging to score early in games, especially away from home, while Boston’s Houck has been effective in keeping runs low despite cooling off from his hot start. On the opposite mound, Tampa’s Bradley's impressive debut suggests he's capable of maintaining control early in the game.

Taj Bradley Over 5.5 strikeouts (-122 at FanDuel) 
Bradley has had a strong start to his season, striking out 29.2% of the batters he's faced. Despite the small sample size of just 24 batters, he’s facing a Red Sox lineup that averages a 23% strikeout rate since last season, and the Red Sox have several high strikeout-rate hitters, such as Jarren Duran and Tyler O’Neill. Bradley’s performance last season, where he struck out 28% of batters on an average of 80 pitches per game, is a good road map to follow with little sample size this season. 

Alec Bohm over 2+ total bases (+105 at FanDuel)
Alec Bohm of the Phillies is experiencing a particularly hot streak, with five home runs and two doubles over the past week. Bohm's high squared-up and blast percentages suggest he's in a position to significantly impact the game.

Royals vs. Mariners under 7.5 Runs (-105 at FanDuel) 
Both the Royals and the Mariners enter this game with standout pitchers that hint at a low-scoring day. Alec Marsh for Kansas City and Bryan Woo for Seattle have shown considerable skill in their recent appearances, supported by robust bullpens prepared to step in if needed. Their ability to control the game and limit opposing batters' success suggests a pitcher-dominated game. Additionally, both teams have often seen games trend under when these pitchers are on the mound, reinforcing the expectation of a tight, strategic battle with few runs.

Sevilla to win (-110 at Caesars)
After a poor start to the season Sevilla have finished well, pulling themselves up out of danger and relegation contention. That certainly isn’t the case for Cadiz, who are very likely to go down — it could even be today if they lose and other results go against them. The bad news is that they are likely to lose today. Sevilla have won three of their past five and a win here actually moves them into the top half of the table, for a short time at least, which would really show how they’ve improved. Cadiz have scored just four times in their past six games and should be turned over by a superior Sevilla team, who seem intent on ending the season on a high.

Chelsea to win and over 1.5 Chelsea goals (+115 at Bet365)
It’s been a difficult campaign for Chelsea and manager Mauricio Pochettino but the club are ending it in impressive form, making a late dash for European action next season. They’re on a three game run of wins, but what really stands out is that they’ve lost just once in their past 13 league outings. Brighton have won just once in their past eight attempts in the Premier League and are unlikely to have enough to beat a Chelsea team who seem motivated to impress Pochettino in the run-in. With Chelsea scoring two or more goals in 10 of their last 11 league games, we should see Chelsea win and score multiple times.

Newcastle to win (+135 at FanDuel)
It has to be said that Man Utd weren’t dreadful against Arsenal on Sunday, but they never looked capable of beating the Gunners and didn’t really threaten them. They have a number of players out injured, and although Bruno Fernandes should return, it likely isn’t enough to get them what would be just their second win in their past nine Premier League games. Newcastle come into today having beaten Man Utd in their last three meetings, keeping a clean sheet in each of those. They’ve also won five of the past eight, losing just once. They’re currently the better team and with Man Utd’s players already looking ahead to the FA Cup final and Euros, Newcastle are likely to be the team who are more motivated.

Atalanta to win (+170 at DraftKings)
Rome’s Stadio Olimpico is the host to today’s Coppa Italia final between Atalanta and Juventus. The Old Lady would love to lift that trophy for the first time since the 20/21 season, but for Atalanta it would be their first major trophy in over 60 years — they last lifted this cup back in the 62/63 season. Juventus started this season well, winning 16 of their first 21 Serie A games, but since then have fallen apart, winning just twice in their past 14 league games. They’ve had a lot of draws, including in their past five games, but it’s a concern that they’ve lost their killer edge with just four goals in those matches. Meanwhile, Atalanta have won four of their past five in the league, scoring 10 goals and also booking a place in the Europa League final. They’re the in-form team and that should get them over the line here.

Atletico Madrid to win (-125 at BetMGM)
Currently 10th in La Liga, Getafe have had a successful season for them but simply can’t compete with Atletico Madrid. The hosts have one win in their past five, compared with Atletico who have won four of their last five. A lack of goals is the biggest issue for Getafe, who with 41 goals in 35 games, are the second-lowest scoring team in the top half of the table. A win and Atletico could lock in Champions League action next season, depending on the Athletic Bilbao result. That prize should be enough to ensure that Atletico keep on their impressive form against Getafe, who haven’t beaten Atletico in their previous 25 attempts.

Lionel Messi to score (+110 at Bet365)
We’ve backed Lionel Messi to score for weeks now, and that has worked in all but one start this season. So we’re going to carry on riding that wave. We all know about the ability Lionel Messi has, but what’s been so impressive is how he has continued to play hard in MLS and hasn’t mailed in his performances. He’s played nine times in the MLS this season, one of which came from the bench, and in those games he’s scored 10 times and set up a further nine goals for teammates. Last week’s win over Montreal was his first start without a goal, and given he scored in the previous seven starts, he should get back to that again tonight.

Inter Miami to win and both teams to score (+300 at FanDuel)
Another trend that has been a regular winner this season has been backing Inter Miami to win and both teams to score. They may be top of the Eastern Conference, but the table tells the story of their season. Inter Miami have played 13 times, scored a huge 35 goals, 14 more than anyone else in the conference, but have conceded 20 times, the fourth-worst defensive record in the East. They’ve won five games on the spin, and each of those games has seen them winning while giving up at least one goal. Not only that, but four of their six road games have seen them win and give up a goal. With Orlando 11th in the standings, they shouldn’t put up much of a fight here.

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