Big First Quarter is Key for Minnesota to Avoid Elimination at Home

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Celtics cruise
- NBA: Underestimating Jamal Murray
- Column: Betting creates new sports fans
- MLB: Aaron Judge heating up 
- News: Largest WNBA audience since 2001

With the Celtics cruising to another 4-1 series win last night, they head to the Eastern Conference finals as heavy favorites no matter who survives the Knicks/Pacers series (-950 at FanDuel). Boston has won eight playoff games so far by an average of 18.5 points. While the rest of the playoff teams are beating each other up in hard-fought series, the Celtics have looked every bit the favorites that they are to win their first NBA title since 2008 (-135 at BetMGM).

In today’s newsletter, Chris is looking for a quick start from the Timberwolves and for Jamal Murray to have a bigger impact. In baseball, Craig is looking for Dodgers pitcher Tyler Glasnow and Yankees slugger Aaron judge to stay hot.

And we’re also welcoming Abby Labar as our weekly columnist today. You can read her thoughts on what is going on in the sports world every Thursday. This week, she dives in on how sports betting is creating a new kind of fan. You can follow her on Instagram at @abbylabar and on X at @abbylabar_.

Timberwolves 1Q Team Total over 26.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
The Nuggets have only beaten the Timberwolves one time in the last two seasons (17 games) when they lost the first quarter, a fact that Minnesota must be aware of as they face potential elimination. Denver has not only dominated the first quarter in their last three wins, they trounced their rival in the last three first halves, out-scoring the T-Wolves by an average of 12 points in games 3-5. A fast start from Minnesota would greatly aid their chances, but they must score to get there.

Jamal Murray over 20.5 points (+112 at FanDuel)
Nikola Jokic went off on the Timberwolves in Game 5 (15-22, 40 points), once again proving why most NBA players and fans see the Serbian superstar as the best player in the association. Meanwhile, Jamal Murray was quiet, going just 7-14 from the field for a humble 16 points without shooting a single three. That should change tonight. In enemy territory, no NBA player has been more clutch or a better closer than Murray. Oddsmakers are granting the enigmatic guard a low point prop after two straight games under 20 points. Time to take advantage.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves over 204.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
As physical as the entire series has played out, only one contest has gone under tonight's listed total. Anthony Edwards will very likely be in attack mode immediately after tip-off, especially coming off his lowest total of the series in Game 5 (5-15, 18 points), and there's a good chance that veteran point guard Mike Conley will return, a key cog in their offensive operation. Combined with how cerebral and proficient Denver's offense has been (55.3% average from the field in their last three wins) and the inevitable free throws that could come at the end of an elimination game; the over is the only way to look.

Sports Betting is Bringing a New Kind of Fan into the Arena

Imagine, you’re sitting at a sports bar with friends, either patiently waiting for your team to start the game, or maybe you’re just there for the social aspect. A mix of people, die-hards, average fans and the significant other that was dragged there and doesn’t know the difference between a baseball and a football. Somebody pipes up “Hey guys, how should we make these games interesting?” 

I would say it’s a story as old as time, but it’s more of a story that’s new with time. 

I started casually exploring the growing landscape of sports betting a few years ago. When I was hired by FTN Network to contribute to their fantasy and betting content, I really dove into the ins and outs of the industry. I’ve covered a number of sports throughout my career, but there is a unique element to betting that forces you to view the game from a different lens.

Click here to continue reading Abby’s column on our website

Dodgers -1.5 (-144 at FanDuel)
The Dodgers are perfectly capable of winning from anywhere on the globe, but their dominance ticks up a bit at home. They’re 7-3 in their last 10 and 11-4 following a loss. Look for them to produce plenty of offense against the Reds, who are forced to piece together a bullpen game after scheduled starter Nick Lodolo (groin) hit the 15-day IL.

Tyler Glasnow to record win (-111 at Caesars)
Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow has been nearly unhittable over his last four starts (28 innings). Opponents are batting .158 against him and whiffing at a 38.2% rate over that span. Those are concerning trends for the Reds, who are whiffing at a 25.3% rate on the season and scoring less efficiently in recent contests. Glasnow will likely receive the necessary offensive support from a team that plates 5.27 runs per game.

Mets +1.5 (-160 at Caesars)
This is a pride game for the Mets as they face the prospect of a modified four-game sweep at the hands of the Phillies. New York dropped two straight at Citi Field before losing Wednesday night at Citizens Bank Park. This spot is less about statistics and more about expecting the Mets to demonstrate some semblance of fight. And landing a punch or two should be easier against Taijuan Walker than it was against Aaron Nola or Ranger Suarez.

Astros moneyline (FanDuel at -210)
It’s a good idea to take note when a team is facing a series sweep. That doesn’t necessarily mean the Athletics will be able to do anything about it this time though. The Astros have won four straight and have a chance to jump the A’s for third-place in the American League West. Houston’s run differential is +11 in their last three and +16 at home. Oakland, meanwhile, owns -11 and -29 marks, respectively.

Cristian Javier over 14.5 outs recorded (-165 at DraftKings)
We’re eyeing a bounce back performance from Astros pitcher Cristian Javier. He was enjoying his typical difficult-to-hit form (1.54 ERA, .183 BAA) across four starts leading into his most recent turn, a 1.1-inning disaster against the Tigers. Current A’s hitters are hitting .103 against Javier across 29 at-bats, and he’s pitched much more effectively at home over his career. This is a low-key significant game for the Astros, and Javier has delivered in a number of these opportunities.

Yankees moneyline + under 8.5 (+275 at DraftKings)
The Yankees will aim for the sweep behind starter Clarke Schmidt, who can frustrate opposing hitters in similar ways to last night’s starter and winning pitcher Marcus Stroman. Meanwhile, Twins starter Joe Ryan gets to play the role of stopper on the heels of four straight quality starts. We like the Yanks and Aaron Judge to stay hot — they’re pummeling opponents on the road (16-9, +35 run differential) — but Ryan won’t be an easy pitcher to tee off against.

Aaron Judge over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-135 DraftKings)
The Yankees center fielder is batting .378/.500/.867 in May with impressive batted ball and advanced metrics to match. Judge recorded 10 total bases last night, eight of them against Twins ace Pablo Lopez, and has two homers in his last three games. When a star gets hot after a slow start, it can often seem as if he laces anything and everything, and that’s the run Judge is on right now.

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