Knicks (-2.5) Slight Favorites at Home to Head to Eastern Conference Finals + WNBA Season Tips Off

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Where the NBA futures market stands

• Top 10 Bets: Towns scored 20+ points in Games 2-4

• Matchups: 15 batters to watch in MLB rivalry games

• Public Betting: Spread money is with Golden State in franchise’s first WNBA game

• Overtime: New book explains how much Caleb Williams didn’t want to go to Chicago

With two of the four teams into the conference finals, now is either an opportune time to look at NBA futures or a complete trap. Here’s where things stand at FanDuel:

• Eastern Conference champion: Knicks and Pacers (+125), Celtics (+430)

• Western Conference champion: Thunder (-155), Timberwolves (+220), Nuggets (+500)

• Eastern Conference finals MVP: Jalen Brunson (+165), Tyrese Haliburton (+185), Jaylen Brown (+550), Pascal Siakam (+1000), Karl-Anthony Towns (+1600), Derrick White (+3100)

• Western Conference finals MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-150), Anthony Edwards (+320), Nikola Jokic (+550), Julius Randle (+1300), Jalen Williams (+4100), Chet Holmgren (+5500)

• NBA champions: Thunder (+110), Knicks and Timberwolves (+500), Pacers (+650), Nuggets (+950), Celtics (+1400)

Before you make any decisions, take a few minutes to read ESPN’s takeaways from the conference semifinals so far.

— Abe Rakov

Brunson Averaged 31.5 Points and 8.4 Assists in Knicks 7 Postseason Wins

By Craig Williams

Knicks moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)
The Knicks don’t want to face a Game 7 in Boston, making tonight’s contest at The Garden a pseudo “must win.” A number of NBA pundits expected the Celtics to take care of business in Game 5, even without Jayson Tatum, and they did so behind impressive showings from a number of players, including the likes of Luke Kornet (+20 in 26 minutes) and Payton Pritchard (+26 in 39 minutes). The Knicks need to stay out of foul trouble — Jalen Brunson fouled out and Karl-Anthony Towns couldn’t find a rhythm due to his foul issues — but they’ll have a better idea of how the Celtics, sans Tatum, will attack them, and theoretically be able to make the adjustments necessary to close out the series.

Celtics under 103.5 points (-108 at DraftKings)
The Celtics put on an impressive performance in Game 5 at home, something they’ll need to replicate. And we’re considering both the tangible and intangible challenges facing the Celtics in this spot. First, it’s worth acknowledging the emotional roller coaster the Celtics have experienced this week. From watching Jayson Tatum go down with a devastating injury to rallying together for a big win at home. Playing at the game’s highest level doesn’t make professional athletes immune from the dynamics of being human. More tangibly, Jaylen Brown historically performs worse on the road — as do “the others,” traditionally — and if he struggles, the Celtics figure to struggle as a whole as well. 

Jalen Brunson over 36.5 points + assists (-105 at BetMGM)
Brunson is averaging 31.5 points and 8.4 assists in the Knicks’ seven postseason wins thus far, and it will likely require another strong effort from him, both scoring and distributing, in order to lead the Knicks to a Game 6 win and ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals. We expect him to get better support from OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges, who combined to score 15 points on 5 of 26 shooting; not to mention, Karl-Anthony Towns only attempted 11 shots. Between Brunson’s own play and the support from his teammates, we like him to reach the over in this spot. 

Karl-Anthony Towns to score 20+ points (-146 at FanDuel)
Foul trouble often serves as an Achilles heel for Towns, who struggled to get into a rhythm in Game 5. Towns scored 20+ points in Games 2-4 by putting in work from two-point range. And he’s been able to get to the line at a high clip in two of his past three. We’re primarily anticipating a more assertive — and available — Towns in Game 6 serving for the catalyst for a quality scoring performance. And while we’re not basing this over on him getting hot from three-point range, it is worth noting that he shot 12 of 25 from distance against the Pistons in the first round.

MLB

Juan Soto run scored (+100 at DraftKings)
For all of the hand wringing over Soto’s slow start, he’s OPSing 1.077 since the beginning of May. He owns an .862 lifetime OPS against lefties with a .989 mark in 2025. He’s 0 for 2 with a walk against Carlos Rodon. But more than stats and individual matchups, consider the stage that Friday’s Mets-Yankees presents, and the animosity that will be aimed at Soto. It’s an environment in which some players thrive, and we anticipate a locked-in Soto to perform in a familiar venue.

Aaron Judge over 0.5 walks (-160 at DraftKings)
Judge ranks 39th with only six walks over the past 15 days despite slugging .833 over that span. Mets manager Carlos Mendoza was Judge’s bench coach with the Yankees before taking the promotion across town, and he has openly wondered why teams continue to pitch to him when he’s in the midst of one of his runs. Mets starter Tylor Megill (3.76 BB/9) is no model of command — he’s walked at least three in four starts — and it won’t be a surprise if Mendoza and Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner opt to tread carefully around Judge.

Francisco Lindor home run (+390 at bet365)
For those looking to roll the dice on a home run prop, we’re eyeing Lindor. Like Soto, Lindor is a performer as much as a player, and he frequently elevates his game under the bright lights. Speaking more quantitatively, Lindor has a pair of home runs in 35 at-bats against Carlos Rodon, who has struggled with the long-ball a bit this season (eight home runs allowed across 54.2 innings). Lindor has nine dingers on the season and slugs .489 against lefties for his career. 

Ranger Suarez under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-174 at Caesars)
Suarez is only making his third start of the season, but he bounced back in his second turn after struggling in his debut. He’ll toe the rubber at home against the offensively challenged Pirates. He’s no strikeout artist, but his modest ability to miss bats in combination with his knack for inducing weak contact will serve him well tonight, and put him in position to deliver a tidy outing.

Garrett Crochet over 17.5 outs recorded (-190 at DraftKings)
Crochet is living up to his billing as the Red Sox ace, and he has provided at least six innings of work in five of nine starts. The Red Sox have demonstrated a willingness to let him pitch beyond 100 pitches (four times), and as long as he can corral his control — the Braves rank middle of the pack in walk rate versus left-handers — he’ll be able to avoid the type of long innings that result in a short outing.

Braves under 1.5 runs first 5 innings (-115 at DraftKings)
The Braves are the fifth-worst team against left-handed pitchers, entering with a .270 wOBA, and Red Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet is among the best the game has to offer. He carries a 1.93 ERA and 2.60 FIP with strong supporting metrics. Crochet has given up fewer than two earned runs in six of nine starts this season, and we’re eyeing another strong performance at home against the Braves.

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Ramirez is 12-27 with 3 HR and 10 RBI vs. Tonight’s Starter for the Reds

• Jose Ramirez (Guardians) vs. Brady Singer (Reds): 12-27, 2 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 6 BB, 6 K

• Jose Altuve (Astros) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (Rangers): 17-52, 2 2B, 7 HR, 7 RBI, 3 BB, 7 K

• Marcus Semien (Rangers) vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): 9-22, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 4 BB, 2 K

• Nick Castellanos (Phillies) vs. Andrew Heaney (Pirates): 6-8, 1 2B, 1 K

• Christian Walker (Astros) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (Rangers): 5-9, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 4 K

• Steven Kwan (Guardians) vs. Brady Singer (Reds): 9-23, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K

• Ramon Laureano (Orioles) vs. MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): 6-8, 2 HR, 3 RBI

• Nolan Jones (Guardians) vs. Brady Singer (Reds): 5-7, 1 2B, 2 RBI

• Francisco Lindor (Mets) vs. Carlos Rodon (Yankees): 10-35, 3 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K

• Andrew McCutchen (Pirates) vs. Ranger Suarez (Phillies): 3-7, 2 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 4 K

• Bo Bichette (Blue Jays) vs. Jack Flaherty (Tigers): 3-7, 1 BB

• Adolis Garcia (Rangers) vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): 3-8, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

• Salvador Perez (Royals) vs. Andre Pallante (Cardinals): 2-6, 1 Hr, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

• Alex Bregman (Red Sox) vs. Chris Sale (Braves): 6-21, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 6 BB, 7 K

• Jonathan India (Royals) vs. Andre Pallante (Cardinals): 3-11, 1 2B, 7 BB, 3 K

71% of the Spread Bets are with Knicks to Close out Celtics at Madison Square Garden

NBA

• Celtics at Knicks (-2.5, -112): 82% of the money and 71% of the bets are with New York 

NHL

• Maple Leafs at Panthers (-1.5, +122): 63% of the money and 68% of the bets are with Florida

WNBA

• Dream (-7, -104) at Mystics: 76% of the money and 75% of the bets are with Atlanta

• Lynx (-5.5, -104) at Wings: 63% of the money and 68% of the bets are with Minnesota

• Sparks (-6.5, -110) at Valkyries (+6.5, -110): 59% of the money is with Golden State but 75% of the bets are with LA

MLB

• White Sox at Cubs (-1.5, -114): 94% of the money and 86% of the bets are with the Cubs

• Guardians at Reds (+1.5, -144): 57% of the money and 61% of the bets are with Cincinnati

• Pirates at Phillies (-1.5, -111): 91% of the money and 81% of the bets are with Philadelphia

• Nationals at Orioles (-1.5, +160): 63% of the money and 67% of the bets are with Baltimore

• Mets (+1.5, -176) at Yankees: 53% of the money and 56% of the bets are with the Mets

• Tigers (-1.5, +138) at Blue Jays: 70% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Detroit

• Rays (-1.5, +138) at Marlins: 73% of the money and 51% of the bets are with Tampa Bay

• Braves at Red Sox (+1.5, -192): 82% of the money and 72% of the bets are with Boston

• Cardinals (+1.5, -156) at Royals: 65% of the money and 66% of the bets are with St. Louis

• Angels at Dodgers (-1.5, -146): 98% of the money and 94% of the bets are with the Dodgers

In the News 

• “Chicago is the place quarterbacks go to die,” said Bears quarterback Caleb Williams’ dad prior to the former USC star being picked by Chicago.

• The NFL said it “tried to play it down the middle” when it came to the Steelers TV schedule this season since it’s still unclear if Aaron Rodgers is headed to Pittsburgh.

• Yahoo Sports previewed the WNBA season.

• The Capitals expect 39-year-old Alex Ovechkin to be back for his 21st season in the NHL.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 2:30pm: Aston Villa vs. Tottenham on USA

• 7:30pm: Dream vs. Mystics / Lynx vs. Wings on ION (followed by Sparks vs. Valkyries at 10pm)

• 8pm: Celtics vs. Knicks (3-2) on ESPN (or Maple Leafs vs. Panthers (3-2) on TNT)

• 8:05pm: Astros vs. Rangers on AppleTV+

Photo of the Day