Top 10 Bets of the Day + 15 MLB Pitcher vs. Batter Matchups and NBA Conference Finals Odds

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: NBA conference finals odds

• Top 10 Bets: NBA + French Open futures

• Matchups: Dodgers’ Conforto has 2 home runs in 9 at bats vs. Diamondbacks’ Pfaadt

• Game of the Day: Potential pitchers’ duel in San Francisco

• Overtime: A preview of the NHL conference finals

The NBA conference finals are set: The Timberwolves and Thunder start their series on Tuesday and Pacers and Knicks begin on Wednesday. Here’s where FanDuel has each series:

Western Conference Finals

• Series: Oklahoma City -375, Minnesota +300

• Total Games (5.5): Over -140, Under +114

• MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-330), Anthony Edwards (+370), Julius Randle (+2300), Jalen Williams (+2500)

• Series After 3 Games: OKC 3-0 (+250), OKC 2-1 (+104), MIN 3-0 (+1800), MIN 2-1 (+290)

Eastern Conference Finals

• Series: New York -146, Indiana +124

• Total Games (5.5): Over -188, Under +152

• MVP: Jalen Brunson (-130), Tyrese Haliburton (+185), Pascal Siakam and Karl-Anthony Towns (+1300)

• Series After 3 Games: NYK 3-0 (+470), NYK 2-1 (+122), IND 3-0 (+980), IND 2-1 (+180)

The Thunder remain the favorite to win the title at -175, followed by the Knicks (+460), Timberwolves (+650) and Pacers (+700). NBA.com has previews of the Eastern and Western conference finals that are worth taking a few minutes to read.

— Abe Rakov

Pacers Shot 50% from Field, 40% from 3 in First 2 Rounds, Scoring 117.7 per Game

By Chris Farley

Indiana Pacers -1.5 (+220 at FanDuel)
The Pacers are unique for several reasons, but none more than the composition of their roster. Across every position they have two-way players, brutes who play physical defense and are capable of making a shot from anywhere on the floor. They overwhelmed the East's #1 team in just five games in the divisional round and they share the best record in the postseason (with Minnesota). The Knicks grew up quickly in May and Jalen Brunson is one of the NBA's premiere number-ones, but the Knicks' offense isn't quite as explosive (106.8 points per game) as Indiana (117.7), which has shot 50% from the floor and a whopping 40% from beyond the arc in two playoff rounds. We love New York's fight, but Rick Carlisle's guys have put on a masterclass and they're the fresher team. 

IND vs. NYK Most Rebounds: Josh Hart (+500 at FanDuel)
Karl Anthony Towns is the odds-on favorite (-650) to win this prop, but we have our doubts. While the big man is a known commodity under the rim, averaging 12.8 rebounds per game this season (2nd overall), this series may not be a good fit for the former Timberwolves player. His defense will inevitably lack energy at certain parts of the series, something we never see from Josh Hart. Regardless, Towns averages more than anyone and he'll be the tallest guy on the court, hence the odds in his favor. Hart's relentless effort is what he's famous for, a guy who's averaging 8.5 rebounds in the postseason and has better offensive rebounding stats (2.3, 1.3 contested per game) than Towns, which may make the difference against an accurate Pacers' offense.

IND vs. NYK Most Three-Pointers Made: Aaron Nesmith (+550 at FanDuel and DraftKings)
Tyrese Haliburton and Jalen Brunson are atop this field for good reason. Both are leading their teams in scoring in the playoffs and have stepped up in big moments. Brunson scored 18 threes against Boston at a healthy 39.1% clip. Haliburton snagged 11 threes at a ridiculous 45.8% clip. Quietly, Aaron Nesmith was near these levels, nailing 13 threes in just 29 minutes per game versus Boston. Brunson and Nesmith are neck and neck in their per-game average in the playoffs, too (2.8, 2.7 respectively). Nesmith also leads all Knicks and Pacers in postseason three-point percentage (48.2%). We like his chances against a Knicks' defense that's far worse against the long-ball (19th this season) than their foe (8th). 

Timberwolves win series (+300 at FanDuel)
The Timberwolves know what it's like to be at this juncture. Last year they tired out and blew a close series against the Mavericks, who ended up winning 4-1. The first four games ended in a 4.25-point margin on average. But this season's T-Wolves are different. Anchored by a more mature and moment-ready Anthony Edwards (26.5 points per game in the playoffs), they also benefit from newcomer Julius Randle, who's been a tremendously effective number-two, scoring 23.9 per game at a 50.9% clip in the postseason. The Thunder deserve credit and looked unbeatable in moments of the last series, but Minnesota is just as athletic and just as physical at the point of attack. The T-Wolves are a great discount at this price.

MIN vs. OKC under 5.5 games (+114 at FanDuel)
It is a coincidence that the past three Western Conference Finals all ended in five games or fewer? Perhaps, but on several levels it checks out. Year after year, the Western Conference breeds better teams with better records than their Eastern counterparts. If you're a Western Conference team, that means you face stiffer competition at a higher rate. It's hard to know all the ways that may affect Western teams in the postseason. What we've observed is visible exhaustion from the losers the past three years. Either way, Minnesota and Oklahoma City have contrasting styles, one slow and methodical, the other blitzing and downhill, which means variance is higher. Don't be surprised if one team tanks out after going down 2-0. 

WNBA

Storm -3 (-110 consensus)
Only mustering 33.3% from the field and 59 total points, the Storm got beat down by a 22-point margin on the road on Saturday, a sad opening display from a team that showed real grit last season. In their first outing of their first regular season without stalwart Jewell Lloyd, Skylar Diggins led the team in scoring but others struggled. They should show better in game two. Besides losing Lloyd, they have continuity in their other four starters and formed great chemistry last season, rising to a top-5 net-rated program. The Wings looked good before the Lynx turned up the volume and spanked them at home. But with far more turnover and changes, we can't trust the Wings against a Storm-squad out for redemption.

Storm vs. Wings over 166 points (-105 at Bovada)
The Storm's offense was second-worst only to the Chicago Sky in their opener, but they're in a great spot for immediate regression on Monday. The Wings were the second-worst defense in the W this weekend, getting stomped and having no answers against a Minnesota offense that put up 99 points. Besides Jewell Lloyd, who they will surely miss, this is the same Storm team that produced 83.2 points per game last season. The Wings' offense wasn't the issue in their loss against Minnesota. Paige Bueckers was respectable in her first start (10 points, 7 rebounds), but still needs to shake off rust. Dallas still produced at a 45.5% clip and scored 84 on last season's #1 defense. Expect points Monday.

French Open Futures

Iga Swiatek to win French Open (+250 at Bovada)
We already have a future on Qinwen Zheng (+2000) to win this event, but the Polish world's #2 made sure she was at Roland Garros two weeks before the start of this year's tournament for good reason. Reports indicate that Swiatek is hyper-motivated to win another trophy in Paris, an event that she's won four different times and three years in a row. So far, 2025 has been shaky for the 23 year old. She lost in the semifinals at Sydney, Qatar, Madrid, and Indian Wells, losing to an array of top competitors (Keys, Ostapenko, Andreeva), and has yet to win an event this season. That's fine; Swiatek by far owns the best record on clay (161-26 in her career, an 86.1% winning percentage), and with a vengeful mindset we love Swiatek to reclaim her dominance in France.

Carlos Alcaraz to win French Open (+130 at Bovada)
Alcaraz just got done making a statement in Rome. Facing off against Jannik Sinner, who just returned from a suspension and looked unbeatable against other opponents, the Spaniard put on a show in front of an Italian crowd — never letting Sinner gain any momentum and dominating the world's #1 in the final set (6-1). Last year Alcaraz displayed magnificent form at Roland Garros, barreling past Sinner and Alexander Zverev on his way to his first Grand Slam title in Paris. This season he's a sterling 15-1 on clay and looked in top form in Rome, moving with trademark speed and finding a way to land spectacular returns and winners at every angle.

WTA French Open Qualifiers

Anastasiia Sobolieva wins 2-0(+125 at FanDuel)
Harriet Dart's career has been in jeopardy for a long time now. In 2024 she was just 26-27 overall, and if it's possible 2025 may turn out even worse. After a respectable start at the Australian Open, where she won her qualifiers and opening round match, Dart has floundered, losing seven of her past eight matches. Matters got worse one month ago at the Rouen Open, when she asked her opponent, Lois Boisson, to put on deodorant during live play. No-name Boisson beat her 6-0, 6-3. On clay Dart is not inclined, having only won 46% of matches on the surface in her career. Sobolieva is a 21-year-old Ukrainian with high-upside, but she hasn't done much in 2025. We care not. We'll continue to fade Dart until she gives us reason not to. 

5 Dodgers with 9+ At Bats vs. Diamondbacks’ Pfaadt Average .333 or Better

• Nico Hoerner (Cubs) vs. Edward Cabrera (Marlins): 5-8, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K

• Matt Chapman (Giants) vs. Kris Bubic (Royals): 5-9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

• Bryan Reynolds (Pirates) vs. Nick Lodolo (Reds): 5-12, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 3 K

• Will Smith (Dodgers) vs. Brandon Pfaadt (Diamondbacks): 4-10, 2 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

• Spencer Steer (Reds) vs. Mitch Keller (Pirates): 6-16, 3 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K

• Mookie Betts (Dodgers) vs. Brandon Pfaadt (Diamondbacks): 5-14, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K

• Freddie Freeman (Dodgers) Brandon Pfaadt (Diamondbacks): 5-15, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K

• Brent Rooker (Athletics) vs. Jose Soriano (Angels): 3-5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

• Brenton Doyle (Rockies) vs. Cristopher Sanchez (Phillies): 3-7, 2 BB

• Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates) vs. Nick Lodolo (Reds): 3-9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 3 K

• Jake Bauers (Brewers) vs. Dean Kremer (Orioles): 3-9, 1 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 K

• Michael Conforto (Dodgers) vs. Brandon Pfaadt (Diamondbacks): 3-9, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K

• Jose Ramirez (Guardians) vs. Bailey Ober (Twins): 7-22, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

• Tyler Stephenson (Reds) vs. Mitch Keller (Pirates): 5-18, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 6 K

• Trea Turner (Phillies) vs. Kyle Freeland (Rockies): 10-37, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB, 11 K

Ray Brings Undefeated Record (6-0), Bubic Sports 1.66 ERA in Solid Pitching Matchup in SF

In the lowest total of the day (7.5), the Royals head to San Fransisco for a three-game interleague series. The Giants swept the Royals last season in Kansas City.

Royals (26-22, 9-13 Away) vs. Giants (28-19, 16-7 Home)
9:45pm

• Spread: Giants +1.5 (-205), Royals -1.5 (+168)

• Moneyline: Giants -118, Royals +100

• Total (7.5): Over +100, Under -122

Head to Head

Royals vs. Robbie Ray

• Current Royals hitters have 58 at bats against Ray and combine for a .215 OBP (7 hits, 2 2B, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 7 BB, 28 K)

  • Salvador Perez: 2-6, 2 2B, 1 RBI, 2 K

  • Kyle Isbel: 1-2

  • Hunter Renfroe: 3-33, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 4 BB, 17 K

• Season Stats: 6-0, 3.04 ERA, 9 starts, 50.1 innings, 37 hits, 17 ER, 5 HR, 26 BB, 55 K

Giants vs. Kris Bubic

• Current Giants hitters have 22 at bats against Bubic and combine for a .440 OBP (8 hits, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3 BB, 8 K)

  • Matt Chapman: 5-9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

  • Heliot Ramos: 1-3, 1 K

  • Wilmer Flores: 1-4, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K

• Season Stats: 4-2, 1.55 ERA, 9 starts, 54.1 innings, 45 hits, 10 ER, 3 HR, 15 BB, 56 K

In the News 

• ESPN previewed the NHL’s Eastern and Western conference finals.

• After Scottie Scheffler’s win at the PGA Championship, Nike released an ad light-heartedly referencing his arrest at last year’s tournament.

• Quarterback Brock Purdy is staying with the 49ers after agreeing to a five-year, $265 million contract extension.

• A rookie won the Indy 500 pole for the first time since 1983.

• The Serie A title is coming down to the final weekend, as Napoli is one point up on Inter Milan.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3pm: Brighton vs. Liverpool on USA

• 6:40pm: Reds vs. Pirates on FS1

• 8pm: Storm vs. Wings on NBA TV

Photo of the Day